continues to warn us the weakness of market. Remain vigilant, and holding cash in hand. We need to be patient at this point to wait for a shakeout action to happen.
I strongly believe patience is also virtue of fortune. Just hold on until you
see selling climax, that is the time we need to pull into trigger.
Monday, May 7, 2007
Saturday, May 5, 2007
Digging into SBUX's Earning performance
咖啡的Earning是没有什么大问题的，如果有，那就不是- 3%了。他在扩张的同时也买回他家的股票，问题就是扩张的速度放慢拉，
换句话说，就是在资金没有更好的情况下，去回购股票是没有选择的最好的选择。
因为咖啡这个行业的特殊性，他的增长不可能，也不合实际的去和那些科技概念比。
而最近出来的消息，咖啡购买相当于去年同期4倍的咖啡，上次我转过的。 这是
一种扩张仍在继续的信号，和当年STP购买WFR 10年的wafer一样。
如果说他 有问题，问题就在于他的working capital在减少，而且cash flow 也因此
而减少。并且同期增加了481 m的债务用于回购股票以及投资。 这一点上从公司的
statement of cashflow看得很清楚。
Cost of sales including occupancy costs increased to 41.9 percent of total
net revenues for the 13 weeks ended April 1, 2007, compared to 40.3 percent
in the corresponding 13-week period of fiscal 2006. This increase was
primarily due to a shift in sales to higher cost products, increased
distribution costs due to the Company’s expanding store base and food
programs, and higher rent expense attributed to growth in higher priced real
estate markets.
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ii&q=SBUX
这个费用的增加是有限的，同比增加2%,考虑到扩张时期美元同期贬值在2%，也就相互
抵消拉。
同时咖啡能够继续在波兰，中国扩张，本身的收入就足以满足cash flow的增长，所以
我是一点也不担心的。就像是为什么在年初的时候，Morgan Stanley仍然大力买入
cocacola一样。 随着今年volaltility的不断增加，我们就会看到这种cash flow corp
和A rank big cap value corp就会成为基金
追捧用于降低风险的对象。这样的故事不用多久就会发生，让我们拭目以待。
说明的一点：该股票不适合trader,也就是说不适合想暴富的人，而适合value
investor.
换句话说，就是在资金没有更好的情况下，去回购股票是没有选择的最好的选择。
因为咖啡这个行业的特殊性，他的增长不可能，也不合实际的去和那些科技概念比。
而最近出来的消息，咖啡购买相当于去年同期4倍的咖啡，上次我转过的。 这是
一种扩张仍在继续的信号，和当年STP购买WFR 10年的wafer一样。
如果说他 有问题，问题就在于他的working capital在减少，而且cash flow 也因此
而减少。并且同期增加了481 m的债务用于回购股票以及投资。 这一点上从公司的
statement of cashflow看得很清楚。
Cost of sales including occupancy costs increased to 41.9 percent of total
net revenues for the 13 weeks ended April 1, 2007, compared to 40.3 percent
in the corresponding 13-week period of fiscal 2006. This increase was
primarily due to a shift in sales to higher cost products, increased
distribution costs due to the Company’s expanding store base and food
programs, and higher rent expense attributed to growth in higher priced real
estate markets.
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ii&q=SBUX
这个费用的增加是有限的，同比增加2%,考虑到扩张时期美元同期贬值在2%，也就相互
抵消拉。
同时咖啡能够继续在波兰，中国扩张，本身的收入就足以满足cash flow的增长，所以
我是一点也不担心的。就像是为什么在年初的时候，Morgan Stanley仍然大力买入
cocacola一样。 随着今年volaltility的不断增加，我们就会看到这种cash flow corp
和A rank big cap value corp就会成为基金
追捧用于降低风险的对象。这样的故事不用多久就会发生，让我们拭目以待。
说明的一点：该股票不适合trader,也就是说不适合想暴富的人，而适合value
investor.
Friday, May 4, 2007
Market Review for May 04
This week, both DOWS and NASDAQ reach their high with earning report story and buyout stories. DOWS closes above 13200 with light volume on Friday, signing a weakness of the pace going forward. Especially those traditional market leaders such as GOOG, AAPL didn't perform, lagging behing the bullish trend recently. In market sentiment, the reading slightly get into " sell " domain ,the first time after its pull back from the end of Feb. The reading has been used by us to monitor the market quite a while. Currently the slow stochastic reading still remain in overbought reading, together with money flow slowing down. All these signs warn us that market will need to get into a breathe era.
From the Economy side, today's job report data gave out a bad sign into the US job market. The easing of job creating is the lowest since 2002. This maybe good for the market in a short term but may not be good sign for long term market growth. Elsewhere, first-quarter productivity rose 1.7%, topping views. Unit labor costs, the report's inflation component, grew a smaller-than-expected 0.6%. The ISM services sector index climbed to a stronger-than-expected reading of 56.0 for the month.
Many people argue that current market performance has a big skew relative to the economy growth . We count such kind of apperance onto the reason of enough liquidty from the hedge fund. As reported, the JPM continues to support the hedge funds with their capital source, so does GS. With such kind of liquidity around, we won't be surprise to see market outpace the GDP growth in the US.
On Sector Views, Healthcare, Transportation and Energy sector continue to show their strength as leader sector of the market. The hike in gasoline and crude price should help those refinary and drill corporation as well. Several stocks outperform .e.g. AEIS, VLO, BTJ. This trend could continue as the demand raise starting from the hot driving season after May 15. Pls pay attention to the article we mentioned before about the hedging into oil sector. Transportation sector such as BNI, KUS all gain through this week. Heathcare sector aslo lead the market at the beginning of this week but flat at the second part.
On Stock view, PTR, ICE, RIO , those stocks related to oil and metal reverses from their recent downtrend , which I believe should deserve further focus. But with the possible easing in the market, we will recomend vigilant action taken.
Good luck next week!
From the Economy side, today's job report data gave out a bad sign into the US job market. The easing of job creating is the lowest since 2002. This maybe good for the market in a short term but may not be good sign for long term market growth. Elsewhere, first-quarter productivity rose 1.7%, topping views. Unit labor costs, the report's inflation component, grew a smaller-than-expected 0.6%. The ISM services sector index climbed to a stronger-than-expected reading of 56.0 for the month.
Many people argue that current market performance has a big skew relative to the economy growth . We count such kind of apperance onto the reason of enough liquidty from the hedge fund. As reported, the JPM continues to support the hedge funds with their capital source, so does GS. With such kind of liquidity around, we won't be surprise to see market outpace the GDP growth in the US.
On Sector Views, Healthcare, Transportation and Energy sector continue to show their strength as leader sector of the market. The hike in gasoline and crude price should help those refinary and drill corporation as well. Several stocks outperform .e.g. AEIS, VLO, BTJ. This trend could continue as the demand raise starting from the hot driving season after May 15. Pls pay attention to the article we mentioned before about the hedging into oil sector. Transportation sector such as BNI, KUS all gain through this week. Heathcare sector aslo lead the market at the beginning of this week but flat at the second part.
On Stock view, PTR, ICE, RIO , those stocks related to oil and metal reverses from their recent downtrend , which I believe should deserve further focus. But with the possible easing in the market, we will recomend vigilant action taken.
Good luck next week!
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Some comments on NYX, PTR
PTR breaks through its moving average, indicating a start of its bullish trend.
Similar to NYX. If you like swing trade, they are the right candidates .
for those who wanna buy on breakouts:
candidates are
JBHT RNWK TKLC KG IPS PWR UNM OMG ICE MTZ PNX MRVL FCX HNSN IFF
Similar to NYX. If you like swing trade, they are the right candidates .
for those who wanna buy on breakouts:
candidates are
JBHT RNWK TKLC KG IPS PWR UNM OMG ICE MTZ PNX MRVL FCX HNSN IFF
Why do I get into NVEC ( not just courage)
Today, after selling @35.1, my gain from this little guy is about 29% in 3 weeks. The reason I point out here is to introduce one of the most typical yet profitable trading pattern , NVEC's earning breakout. Earning, which has been quite a nervous time for many traders, will be the best time for patient investors who have been ready for the move.
First, why do I choose NVEC not others?
Playing earning breakout, based on my backtesting and history analysis, will create big profit for those stocks who have shown decent move previously and fall because of trading reason. Here pay attention to this, not the fundamental reason but trading reason. If fundamental is bad, for example, missed ER dramatically in its previous quarter,skip this stock. NVEC remains its pace for generating earning. Its earning growth rate is faster than 80% of stocks in that sector. the patent it filed on MRAM has yet to bring cash into their earning. With all the fudamental analysis done, I was quite sure that it is a good company deserved to play with.
Trading sound company reduces the risk of your trading. Think about that, a penny has the reason to be penny,because of no big instituion buying. If no big guys buying, all the spikes will be just spikes.
Second, when do I buy it?
I bought it twice, first was around $26.9, second time was $27.3. you can easily spot that both of prices have been located into the consolidation zoom , region below the black resistance and above the uptrend support line. The higher low underneaths signs that big money is bullish toward this guy, as a result, any down move of nvec will be regarded as shaking and consolidation. The breakout is there, ready to go.
Third, why choose ER?
Most of you have known, there is pre-ER move and post- ER move. ER is one of the most frequent points to break the resistence in stock history. Why? Think about that. Buying comes from institution and smart money. Buying into ER, normally happened in BH or AH, can enhance their buying power efficiency without too much distraction. NVEC is ready to break, this will be the right time to go.
For all of those reasons above, getting into NVEC above the uptrend support line. The possibility you make money can be a big fish if not a shark. Trading is about the possibility of making money. And what we need to do is to try to reduce the risk exposed.
Eyes on stocks that are ready to breakout before ER, it is your time!
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Review of Head & shoulder pattern
HMIN demonstrated its head on shoulder patterns not long ago, which let me associate the cast published by IBD today. And I think it is quite a useful pattern that we wanna remember . So share it here for study purpose. Copyright belongs to IBD.
======================
From November through early March, airlines were one of the best-performing industry groups. It was also during that time, that Continental Airlines, (CAL) an industry leader, was forming a topping pattern.
Like many other airline stocks, Continental shares rallied for much of the autumn. The stock started stalling in December, when shares dipped near their 10-week moving average (point 1). All that seemed normal, especially when Continental jumped from the 10-week line to new highs. But on the week of Jan. 19, the stock reversed lower on heavy volume (point 2). The next week, it sold off further on even heavier trading, dropping below the 10-week average. Shares tried rallying back, but met against renewed selling. That rally attempt turned out to be the second shoulder in a head-and-shoulders pattern. That formation is one of the few shown by research to be a bearish pattern. A sell signal occurs when the stock pierces a trend line drawn across the lows (point 3), known to chart readers as the “neckline.” Continental has continued weakening. Its Accumulation/Distribution Rating is down to a D-, and its Relative Strength line is also trending down (point 4).
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
not bear market but just a consolidation
Consolidation means during such a period, we will witness high volatility of market, which will normally shake off the weak hands, newbie for example. And as we remains in the strong bullish trend of market, buying into dip is the best strategy that have been proved to be efficient in such kind of atmosphere.
Don't worry about the market, we are in a bullish mode. Remember, we can't just see 100+ everyday, right? Once the market goes to new high, profit taking is a natural action that we don't need to worry about. As long as the inflation is kept, and house market is stable, nothing could stop market going up.
Don't worry about the market, we are in a bullish mode. Remember, we can't just see 100+ everyday, right? Once the market goes to new high, profit taking is a natural action that we don't need to worry about. As long as the inflation is kept, and house market is stable, nothing could stop market going up.
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