1， 这个方法得益于HQ和大千，及168上得来的一些启示。去年夏天的HQ是蛮有创造力的。我至今还记得他通过对goog以及几个leading stocks得研究，正确判断了大方向。而后发文感谢shadan，说他终于上水了。
当时我在build我的regressing model, 受此启发， 通过cluster /classification/discrimination analysis, 把更多的大盘指标股找出来加入到model里。发现还很不错。
2，我那时的model好是好，但是美股总的来说是短期driving by news, 长期driving by earning 的。如果我辛辛苦苦的分析完，第二天早上出了个什么news, 大盘摔个过百点，一样完蛋。书上一直就说很多分析师都非常注意盘前交易对个股的影响。大千和168上有几个不错的也很注意盘前交易。我就想能否我也把盘前交易数据放到我的model里面。在这个过程中我发现，大盘前成交量级可预示下跌有可预示上涨，如何区分开呢？结论是还是成交量。总成交量和部分时间段的成交量以及由此产生的关联对大盘方向的判断， 尤其是那种+ -〉=100点的日子特别有效。
这套盘前判断大盘方向得方法只是我众多方法之一。没什么好藏的。我的系统里，最值钱的是选股和价格预测，盘前方法只是confirm交易和预防下跌。分开几次帖出来，只是因为我一直抱有“授人鱼，不如授人以渔”的观念。我不希望一次过什么都说完，然后别人就照做。没有任何学习和思考的过程。我想robin在发了许多hcl的pick后，其实又有几人真正理解他的方法和他如何come up with hcl play idea 的思路呢？坦白说，这里大部分人都太在乎短期挣大钱而非理解一个事情的本质，然后找到最适合自己的方法。
我可以找到这个方法，很大程度上取决于我本来就扎实ta/stat功夫，所以在闪光点出现后， 我可以知道it得价值以及如何更好的利用。更重要的是我相信独立思考的重要性。
我的乐趣不是发帖，然后得到叫好声。我的真正乐趣是认识了一个事情的本质， 赚了钱，同时enjoy了独立思考的乐趣。
Translation as below
1, The methods benefit from HQ Daqian, and 168, due to some kind of enlightenment. Last summer HQ was quite creative. I still remember that he passed on goog and several leading stocks in the study, corrected judgment of a general market direction. Then he issued a document to thank shadan, he finally said he started to make money. At that time, I built my regressing model, inspired by this, through a cluster /classification/discrimination analysis, more large stock indicators identify them into model Lane. Found very good.
2, I was building the model, but the stock markets generally short driving by news, long driving by the earning. If my hard-earned analyzed, the next morning what if out of the news, and market had rapid drop-off point 100, the same jail. Book has been saying many analysts have paid great attention to the transaction on disc units affected. Daqian and 168 are also several very good attention to the disc transactions. I thought I could put disc transaction data from the model inside. In this process, I found, and the rapid turnover levels before fall may presage increases may indicate how to separate? Conclusion is still turnover. Total turnover of part-time and turnover, and the resulting correlation to the overall direction of the judge, In particular kind of point ->=100 + days particularly effective. This disc in the direction of the overall judgment method is only one of my many ways. No possession of the good. My system, the most valuable of-Selection and price forecasts disc methods only confirm transactions and the prevention of a decrease. Several separate points out, it is only because I have always been "delegated Mermaid, as a delegate to fish" concept. I do not want what one has finished, and then others will follow suit. No learning and thinking process. I think the robin in a lot of pick hcl, Several people in fact be truly appreciate his methods and how he will come up with the idea hcl play thinking? Frankly speaking, most people here are too short make big money lies not understand the essence of a thing, Then find the most suitable method. I find this approach depends to a great extent I was on solid ta/stat effort So the glittering there, I know it can have value and how to better use. More importantly, I believe the importance of independent thinking. I was not fun when posting, and then get applause. My real fun is a matter of understanding the nature, make some money and enjoy the fun of independent thinking.
Monday, May 28, 2007
Friday, May 25, 2007
The Last post in the next coming week
Sorry for all folks here, I won't be able to publish the Market Review this week because I am going to take the CFA test next month. I haven't spent too much time on studying it until last week that I found out actually there are many things need to be tested in economics and quantitative methods other than the corporation finance and accounting ,later of which are familiar to me. And this post, I will try to help you to understand several successful trading mechanisms by Livermore and Nicolas Darva so that later on you can build your own trading systems. Both of their methods have been extensively studied these years. and several people in stock board are using their method for trading. My explanation here is trying to help you to understand what is the real essence behind their methods. Most of their methods are related to momentum trading either by news or events and pre-setup. Their methods are not new but associated with different risk levels and experience level.
And this post won't be kept for long so that you may not remember what they are and affect your own creativity to build your successful system.
And this post won't be kept for long so that you may not remember what they are and affect your own creativity to build your successful system.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Questions that bobobobo raise about BH trading
1, who is buying and who is selling in bh/ah market?
Mainly those institutions and brokers who can see the trade books.
2,how long have you monitored the bh/ah trading? how many data do you have
for previous's down day(>=100 point dow). in terms your samples size is
larger enough, you can run a regression analysis
hehe, in term of down day, there is a high chance in the previous day that market show a shooting star which close at the low 20% end. and the second day, normally the second day will open high less than 5 ticks but turn around afterward.
3,the beauty of stat is even you don't know if there is any existing
correlation or not, you still can build a regression model, then use
stepwise method to find out which factor really affect the market direction.
hehe, we need sample sizes, and I believe this will be divided into a KNN classification problem. :)
4, in the day of feb, when market dip more than 400 points, what's the pre
market volume? do you expect multi-m volume in pre market?
that is abnormal which means super bigboys are selling their holding.
once you can answer these question, we can talk over the weekend
Mainly those institutions and brokers who can see the trade books.
2,how long have you monitored the bh/ah trading? how many data do you have
for previous's down day(>=100 point dow). in terms your samples size is
larger enough, you can run a regression analysis
hehe, in term of down day, there is a high chance in the previous day that market show a shooting star which close at the low 20% end. and the second day, normally the second day will open high less than 5 ticks but turn around afterward.
3,the beauty of stat is even you don't know if there is any existing
correlation or not, you still can build a regression model, then use
stepwise method to find out which factor really affect the market direction.
hehe, we need sample sizes, and I believe this will be divided into a KNN classification problem. :)
4, in the day of feb, when market dip more than 400 points, what's the pre
market volume? do you expect multi-m volume in pre market?
that is abnormal which means super bigboys are selling their holding.
once you can answer these question, we can talk over the weekend
There is always Gem in any panic or pull back
Everytime there is a panic , there lies a chance or opportunity. Let's see what we can get from this time. Originally I would like to postpone this to Weekend Market Review, but today feel it better to post here right now. Sell-off involves several reasons, one of them will be the psychology of the street guys. the reason can be attributed to the home sale data and greenspan's big mouth.
=================
New home sales had their best month in recent memory during April, prompting cautious talk that the ailing housing market may have hit bottom. But prices plummeted as builders work off a bloat of unsold homes.
New home sales surged 16.2% in April to an annual rate of 981,000 units, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was the best monthly gain in 14 years.
Better weather brought wary buyers back to the table, with sales blowing out Wall Street forecasts of 860,000.
=================
This data fades the view of rate cut by FED within this year. The bond rate also adjust to point to later than Sept ( Last week, the 10 years T-bills rate pointed to rate cut in Sept). Sounds bad? huh, probably. Any dark side comes with a bright one. The home sale increase actually confirms our view that house market is close to bottom if not as we discussed in the post.. Once the house market bottom, what we really need to care will be alumina, lumber, wood and anything that used to build house. I remember bobobobo has given us several stocks related to public building, most of the information already confirmed each other. As a result, let's find those valuable stocks.
USG purchased by Buffet of course is one we like. BLG, CSAR are directly related to house industry. Hope you can share your views of those potential companies in this area. Lumber, wood,...
还有一点值得我们商榷的是一个巧合。那就是greenspan的讲话发生在中美第二次战略会议达成小规模突破的前夜。换句话说，两点，QFII额度由100亿增加到300亿， 另外一点，明年起开始全面开放中国的金融业，允许美国的证券公司，金融公司大举进入中国市场。让我们设想一下，如果股市在QFII额度增加的时候继续高起，对于资本家来说利润大吗？ 我相信资本家是从不作解放军的，绝对不会作解套的工作。在金融资本进入低潮的时候让这些资本进入是否更好？ 让我们重新回顾亚洲金融危机，当年就是Soros在资金进入前大放厥词说亚洲资本有泡沫，导致股市，汇市大跌。他哥们得以安然进入，进而推高市场，获利出套。 那么今天的Greenspan和所谓的香港股神继续唱空中国股市的时间和QFII额度的增加的时间吻合性仅仅是巧合吗？ 中国股市随着市场的走高，风险是肯定有的。但是在我看来，没有泡沫。中国经济持续增长这么多年，老百姓们收益的多吗？没有几个。 这牛市才刚开始，就不断唱空，我是不相信的。中国股市，牛市依旧。今年已经被定性为“ 反恐年”。 什么叫反恐年，就是不要恐高，越高越正常。 Of course, correction during such a trend is not surprise. Today both indexes broke their trend lines which, if confirmed tomorrow, will last about 3 weeks.
=================
New home sales had their best month in recent memory during April, prompting cautious talk that the ailing housing market may have hit bottom. But prices plummeted as builders work off a bloat of unsold homes.
New home sales surged 16.2% in April to an annual rate of 981,000 units, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was the best monthly gain in 14 years.
Better weather brought wary buyers back to the table, with sales blowing out Wall Street forecasts of 860,000.
=================
This data fades the view of rate cut by FED within this year. The bond rate also adjust to point to later than Sept ( Last week, the 10 years T-bills rate pointed to rate cut in Sept). Sounds bad? huh, probably. Any dark side comes with a bright one. The home sale increase actually confirms our view that house market is close to bottom if not as we discussed in the post.. Once the house market bottom, what we really need to care will be alumina, lumber, wood and anything that used to build house. I remember bobobobo has given us several stocks related to public building, most of the information already confirmed each other. As a result, let's find those valuable stocks.
USG purchased by Buffet of course is one we like. BLG, CSAR are directly related to house industry. Hope you can share your views of those potential companies in this area. Lumber, wood,...
还有一点值得我们商榷的是一个巧合。那就是greenspan的讲话发生在中美第二次战略会议达成小规模突破的前夜。换句话说，两点，QFII额度由100亿增加到300亿， 另外一点，明年起开始全面开放中国的金融业，允许美国的证券公司，金融公司大举进入中国市场。让我们设想一下，如果股市在QFII额度增加的时候继续高起，对于资本家来说利润大吗？ 我相信资本家是从不作解放军的，绝对不会作解套的工作。在金融资本进入低潮的时候让这些资本进入是否更好？ 让我们重新回顾亚洲金融危机，当年就是Soros在资金进入前大放厥词说亚洲资本有泡沫，导致股市，汇市大跌。他哥们得以安然进入，进而推高市场，获利出套。 那么今天的Greenspan和所谓的香港股神继续唱空中国股市的时间和QFII额度的增加的时间吻合性仅仅是巧合吗？ 中国股市随着市场的走高，风险是肯定有的。但是在我看来，没有泡沫。中国经济持续增长这么多年，老百姓们收益的多吗？没有几个。 这牛市才刚开始，就不断唱空，我是不相信的。中国股市，牛市依旧。今年已经被定性为“ 反恐年”。 什么叫反恐年，就是不要恐高，越高越正常。 Of course, correction during such a trend is not surprise. Today both indexes broke their trend lines which, if confirmed tomorrow, will last about 3 weeks.
Thinking behind the pull back
Market sells off today after the big mouth greenspan's warning against chinese stock market bubble. This sparked a sell off in chinese stock market and many chinese stocks traded in U.S. What do we need to do in such a situation?
Based on my painful experience, several points you have to be clear about include but not limited to,
1) What is the reason behind the move?
If just because greenspan' word, we don't even need to think too much. He mentioned 2 months ago that there is 1/3 chance the us economy will get into recession. Normally Stock market points 3 ~6 months ahead of the economy, however what happen? DOWS hikes about 1500 points, do we see recession? Recently he sent out too much warning message which he was not supposed to do after resignation. I really suspect that he was helping someone on the street or behind the street to do sth.
another news about the pull back is the coming back of the house market which would reduce the chance of FED to cut rate as we expected before. However, no matter what, cutting rate is just a matter of time this year, any short term thinking will still be short term thinking.
=======================
copied from Yahoo
Investors were originally enthusiastic after the Commerce Department reported sales of single-family homes rose 16.2 percent last month after falling slightly in March. Although the average prices of homes plunged, the report still showed the economy continues to show signs of expansion.
The report followed data released by the Commerce Department earlier Thursday that showed sales of big-ticket manufactured goods posted a modest increase in April, indicating a continued rebound in business spending. The durable goods report suggested U.S. companies are in the midst of growing, and aren't afraid to spend money to do so.
With first-quarter earnings reports mostly over, Wall Street is placing increased significance on data as a catalyst for stocks. The reports on Thursday suggest that perhaps the Federal Reserve has steered the economy toward a soft landing, and that a rate cut might not be needed.
"Sometimes good is bad," said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy for Israel A. Englander & Co. "This takes away the anticipation that the Fed is going to ease interest rates because of the housing market."
================================
you see what the people on street think? He said good is bad. hehe sound ridiculous ? no. All we are waiting for is the rate cut. A rate cut will be triggered when we see the house market tumble, when we see the economy slows down. You can see how conflicting of the psychology may affect the market.
2) was the move triggered by any fundamental reason of the company?
If the stock pull back because of the big market, nothing really happen to the Fundamental, don't be afraid. Just hold your holding. If it is because the fundamental reason like what we see in HMIN, a disappointing earning reason. We don't wanna hold loser for such kind of reason. But from short term trading perspectives, it might be a short term bottom.
3) What do we do with those original trading plan?
Today's sell off actually destroyed many of my trading plan including DXPE, OMCL, HSC . You can refer to the previous posts that I describe about their pattern. Under such kind of situation, I would have no choice but give up my previous plan. This doesn't mean I won't get in. Indeed, whenever I found a clear sign again, will get in right away. Holding fundamental sound companies can help to release your anxiety :)
As far as I know, the ISRG's breaking out pattern (traded by laoda yesterday)is also destroyed.
And it is a time to buy sth cheap. Don't wait too long, because once market comes back, will be strong and quick.
Just some of my ideas.
Also if you don't feel comfortable of holding good stocks, pls listen
No Sell Even Die
:)
Based on my painful experience, several points you have to be clear about include but not limited to,
1) What is the reason behind the move?
If just because greenspan' word, we don't even need to think too much. He mentioned 2 months ago that there is 1/3 chance the us economy will get into recession. Normally Stock market points 3 ~6 months ahead of the economy, however what happen? DOWS hikes about 1500 points, do we see recession? Recently he sent out too much warning message which he was not supposed to do after resignation. I really suspect that he was helping someone on the street or behind the street to do sth.
another news about the pull back is the coming back of the house market which would reduce the chance of FED to cut rate as we expected before. However, no matter what, cutting rate is just a matter of time this year, any short term thinking will still be short term thinking.
=======================
copied from Yahoo
Investors were originally enthusiastic after the Commerce Department reported sales of single-family homes rose 16.2 percent last month after falling slightly in March. Although the average prices of homes plunged, the report still showed the economy continues to show signs of expansion.
The report followed data released by the Commerce Department earlier Thursday that showed sales of big-ticket manufactured goods posted a modest increase in April, indicating a continued rebound in business spending. The durable goods report suggested U.S. companies are in the midst of growing, and aren't afraid to spend money to do so.
With first-quarter earnings reports mostly over, Wall Street is placing increased significance on data as a catalyst for stocks. The reports on Thursday suggest that perhaps the Federal Reserve has steered the economy toward a soft landing, and that a rate cut might not be needed.
"Sometimes good is bad," said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy for Israel A. Englander & Co. "This takes away the anticipation that the Fed is going to ease interest rates because of the housing market."
================================
you see what the people on street think? He said good is bad. hehe sound ridiculous ? no. All we are waiting for is the rate cut. A rate cut will be triggered when we see the house market tumble, when we see the economy slows down. You can see how conflicting of the psychology may affect the market.
2) was the move triggered by any fundamental reason of the company?
If the stock pull back because of the big market, nothing really happen to the Fundamental, don't be afraid. Just hold your holding. If it is because the fundamental reason like what we see in HMIN, a disappointing earning reason. We don't wanna hold loser for such kind of reason. But from short term trading perspectives, it might be a short term bottom.
3) What do we do with those original trading plan?
Today's sell off actually destroyed many of my trading plan including DXPE, OMCL, HSC . You can refer to the previous posts that I describe about their pattern. Under such kind of situation, I would have no choice but give up my previous plan. This doesn't mean I won't get in. Indeed, whenever I found a clear sign again, will get in right away. Holding fundamental sound companies can help to release your anxiety :)
As far as I know, the ISRG's breaking out pattern (traded by laoda yesterday)is also destroyed.
And it is a time to buy sth cheap. Don't wait too long, because once market comes back, will be strong and quick.
Just some of my ideas.
Also if you don't feel comfortable of holding good stocks, pls listen
No Sell Even Die
:)
Comments about the Pull Back from comments:)
=====================
Early Warning sent by Bobobobo,
bobobobo said...
warning
check goog, gs, rimm, aapl, intc dell, vlo, nyx, etc pre market trade.
I will close all of my position except for nmx once market open.
May 24, 2007 5:46 AM
bobobobo said...
ok, just check with the economy news, check with the pre market trade at 8:01/8:02, mm knows news ahead of us.
hold cash or short
May 24, 2007 5:49 AM
bobobobo said...
yesterday's dow k chart was tipical 3 只乌鸦站枝头. don't lost your underware in this correction.
===========================
Wei said...
Naz is at a critical point. Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think. So my suggestion is hold tight. Dont trade too much recently.
May 24, 2007 7:34 AM
Delete
Wei said...
The market has been bull for a while. most index climb up a lot. under this circumstance, when the pullback comes, the market will send out very strong signal. 90% stocks drop huge in one day along with good news, huge volumn. By now, if the drops is triggered by bad news, dont panic. It is not there yet.
May 24, 2007 7:40 AM
Delete
bobobobo said...
Wei said...
Naz is at a critical point.
-----------------------------agree
Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think.
-------------------------I doubt it. what was driving the market in past few months? rate cut, good earning, buyout. what can continuously support the market? housing is bad, feb is more concern about inflation then recession, earning season is ended, we already have many buyout cases. the most important part, where is the money to continue support the uptrend?
=========================
As we discuss before ( the market condition), Both indexes have gone up about 10% since their last bottom. It is another time for a little pull back. The second pull back, if correct, normally will be in 3~5%. And the pull back basically will trigger another higher high of the market later on. Remember, we have about one month before next FOMC meeting. And any surprise will be positive surprise. The bull trend is there. Any pullback will be a chance.
Early Warning sent by Bobobobo,
bobobobo said...
warning
check goog, gs, rimm, aapl, intc dell, vlo, nyx, etc pre market trade.
I will close all of my position except for nmx once market open.
May 24, 2007 5:46 AM
bobobobo said...
ok, just check with the economy news, check with the pre market trade at 8:01/8:02, mm knows news ahead of us.
hold cash or short
May 24, 2007 5:49 AM
bobobobo said...
yesterday's dow k chart was tipical 3 只乌鸦站枝头. don't lost your underware in this correction.
===========================
Wei said...
Naz is at a critical point. Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think. So my suggestion is hold tight. Dont trade too much recently.
May 24, 2007 7:34 AM
Delete
Wei said...
The market has been bull for a while. most index climb up a lot. under this circumstance, when the pullback comes, the market will send out very strong signal. 90% stocks drop huge in one day along with good news, huge volumn. By now, if the drops is triggered by bad news, dont panic. It is not there yet.
May 24, 2007 7:40 AM
Delete
bobobobo said...
Wei said...
Naz is at a critical point.
-----------------------------agree
Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think.
-------------------------I doubt it. what was driving the market in past few months? rate cut, good earning, buyout. what can continuously support the market? housing is bad, feb is more concern about inflation then recession, earning season is ended, we already have many buyout cases. the most important part, where is the money to continue support the uptrend?
=========================
As we discuss before ( the market condition), Both indexes have gone up about 10% since their last bottom. It is another time for a little pull back. The second pull back, if correct, normally will be in 3~5%. And the pull back basically will trigger another higher high of the market later on. Remember, we have about one month before next FOMC meeting. And any surprise will be positive surprise. The bull trend is there. Any pullback will be a chance.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
The most important thing in Investment
Fundamental Analysis? No. Technical Analysis? No. That what is it? Let's see what those real successful guys tell us.
李：有人总结您能够十八年都不会从股市失败的一个重要原因，是您有一个像隐士一样平静的心态，确实如此吗？
杨：对，我经常对我的学生讲，炒股是六分心态、三分技巧、一分运气。
李：您的这个心态也是股市把您摔打出来的吗？
杨：摔打出来的。还有一个是我比较看得穿。
李：看得穿什么？
杨：钱是身外之物，你千万不要为富而来，为富而来的结果往往是贫。我和失败的人的区别就在于我期望值不高，是以一个下岗职工的心态在买股票。
李：为了养家糊口而买股票和为了一夜暴富买股票，心态的不同会带来什么样的结果？
杨：想暴富的一定是急功近利，为了养家糊口，他就把股票放着。你心态好了以后，可以用一句老话，叫宁静致远，比如这个行情涨两年了，谁越傻越放得住的，越赚大钱，这个放得住要什么？要心态 。
### Translation
Lee : Some people you can sum up 18 years from the stock market are not a failure of the important reasons, you have a hermit in the same calm mentality, and this is true?
Yang : Yes, I often say to my students, speculation is six hours mentality, one-third of skills, a breakdown of luck.
Li : Your mind is the stock market out your competent?
Yang : The temper. There is a comparison I see wear.
Lee : What to see what to wear?
Yang : worldly possessions money, you should never come to the rich, the rich from the poor results often. I failed and the difference is that my expectations are not high, based on an attitude of laid-off workers in buying stocks.
Lee : To feed their families and to buy the shares and who became rich buying stocks, the different mentality about what might be the outcome?
Yang : Through the will to be rich, in order to feed their families, he has kept the stock. You have a good mentality, one can use the old adage, called quiet Zhi Yuan, such as the Rising After two years, Who more silly attitude of the more up, the more money and to survive this up? To mentality.
===================
That is your mentality toward investment. We always talk about risk control, always talk about P/E, support, resistance. However those tricks are minor compared to attitude. In another word, you have to find your own way of investment. Many people at the beginning of trading always mix concepts of investment and speculation. However those successful people always find a way to suit themselves. For example, after you made a trade, do you frequently check the price of stocks? do you feel anxiety of your trading? If yes, you could be defined you are not suitable for a long term investors. All trigger yourself is the short term profit or lost. It would be better that you train yourself to be a short term or swing traders. This may not be true, just use as an example. No matter what strategy fit you most, find the one you need.
The way to find the right way that you feel comfortable may not be so easy. You have to try and error. One simple way you can do can be described like this,
1) forget about what others have told you, basically means once you find a stock, don't look at news about it, don't listen to others' opinion about it.
2) Try to understand the business of the stock in a simple way. How simple could it be? You don't need to look at its Financial statement, only judge by your own intuition whether this business will have future.
3) Find out what strategy fit you most, trader or investor. The best way that make you feel comfortable.
4) Design your plan, entry and exit.
5) Go for it.
6) If you lose, write down the reason, e.g. stop too tight? too loose? exit not reasonable?
7) If you success, count 1 onto the entry and exit strategy because it is a winning one.
8) Try several times until you find the right one. I would not rec you to use paper trade. Simple reason, it won't improve your mentality.
I have tried several tough ways until I finally find out that I am more suitable to be an investor involving into mid-term to long term trading through complete study of a company's business model.
最后以一句话佛经上的话总结，“找到了路，就不怕路有多远”.
( Finally, a word on the Buddhist concluded, "find the way and not afraid of how far the road." )
You will find your own way.
李：有人总结您能够十八年都不会从股市失败的一个重要原因，是您有一个像隐士一样平静的心态，确实如此吗？
杨：对，我经常对我的学生讲，炒股是六分心态、三分技巧、一分运气。
李：您的这个心态也是股市把您摔打出来的吗？
杨：摔打出来的。还有一个是我比较看得穿。
李：看得穿什么？
杨：钱是身外之物，你千万不要为富而来，为富而来的结果往往是贫。我和失败的人的区别就在于我期望值不高，是以一个下岗职工的心态在买股票。
李：为了养家糊口而买股票和为了一夜暴富买股票，心态的不同会带来什么样的结果？
杨：想暴富的一定是急功近利，为了养家糊口，他就把股票放着。你心态好了以后，可以用一句老话，叫宁静致远，比如这个行情涨两年了，谁越傻越放得住的，越赚大钱，这个放得住要什么？要心态 。
### Translation
Lee : Some people you can sum up 18 years from the stock market are not a failure of the important reasons, you have a hermit in the same calm mentality, and this is true?
Yang : Yes, I often say to my students, speculation is six hours mentality, one-third of skills, a breakdown of luck.
Li : Your mind is the stock market out your competent?
Yang : The temper. There is a comparison I see wear.
Lee : What to see what to wear?
Yang : worldly possessions money, you should never come to the rich, the rich from the poor results often. I failed and the difference is that my expectations are not high, based on an attitude of laid-off workers in buying stocks.
Lee : To feed their families and to buy the shares and who became rich buying stocks, the different mentality about what might be the outcome?
Yang : Through the will to be rich, in order to feed their families, he has kept the stock. You have a good mentality, one can use the old adage, called quiet Zhi Yuan, such as the Rising After two years, Who more silly attitude of the more up, the more money and to survive this up? To mentality.
===================
That is your mentality toward investment. We always talk about risk control, always talk about P/E, support, resistance. However those tricks are minor compared to attitude. In another word, you have to find your own way of investment. Many people at the beginning of trading always mix concepts of investment and speculation. However those successful people always find a way to suit themselves. For example, after you made a trade, do you frequently check the price of stocks? do you feel anxiety of your trading? If yes, you could be defined you are not suitable for a long term investors. All trigger yourself is the short term profit or lost. It would be better that you train yourself to be a short term or swing traders. This may not be true, just use as an example. No matter what strategy fit you most, find the one you need.
The way to find the right way that you feel comfortable may not be so easy. You have to try and error. One simple way you can do can be described like this,
1) forget about what others have told you, basically means once you find a stock, don't look at news about it, don't listen to others' opinion about it.
2) Try to understand the business of the stock in a simple way. How simple could it be? You don't need to look at its Financial statement, only judge by your own intuition whether this business will have future.
3) Find out what strategy fit you most, trader or investor. The best way that make you feel comfortable.
4) Design your plan, entry and exit.
5) Go for it.
6) If you lose, write down the reason, e.g. stop too tight? too loose? exit not reasonable?
7) If you success, count 1 onto the entry and exit strategy because it is a winning one.
8) Try several times until you find the right one. I would not rec you to use paper trade. Simple reason, it won't improve your mentality.
I have tried several tough ways until I finally find out that I am more suitable to be an investor involving into mid-term to long term trading through complete study of a company's business model.
最后以一句话佛经上的话总结，“找到了路，就不怕路有多远”.
( Finally, a word on the Buddhist concluded, "find the way and not afraid of how far the road." )
You will find your own way.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)