Friday, June 15, 2007
Several observations about this OE
This OE is very very typical I think , flirting with big volatility. But as what I mentioned before, its intrinsic features are mostly expo expressed this OE. For example, the timing issue, the volume issues, the leader sectors issue, the leader stocks issues. Most of them are typical pattern matched with my statistics. Today is my first day to fully review all the option chain and you have found out those intrinsic relationship among each price and price movement. Double check with the option play by bobobobob on NMX, the option play on MA, get your own idea and thinking. Value will come for those people who get ready for it.
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19 comments:
Today is a big day to remember. MA, NMX OE play!
Sorry, Metronic, I don't quite understand the logic of this OE. When you say it is a typical OE, wasn't it true that OE should be the one with little volatility and small price movement? Even if MA and NMX should go higher, they could definitely go after this OE, but why this OE? Is it because too many people have forgotten the intrinsic value of NMX ?
Thanks for clarifying.
oosevern and qianhu,
I think NMX rally because of purchase by other companies such as CME or NYSE. Such a purchase power is much more stronger than the options restriction. MA is similar.
Am I right?
oe日有些大股如GOOG,AAPL都被强制打压。给了大家很好得进货机会。
nmx rally这么厉害是因为之前有很多good news。只是很多人没有想到oe前能爆发。本周交易所板块很活跃，BOT,NMX,IcE,cme的表现都很好。
就不知道什么时候能轮到可怜的NYX阿，呵呵。被狗剩downgrade了，也许要等下个OE翻身？
hi ooseven,
OE is regarded to be the high volatile market but with little change eventually. Combining what skiii has said and the concept that high volatility but low change market in OE, nmx lies in the hottest sector which will act as the biggest movement stock in OE week.
to fanzhi,
What your observation is right, however you may wanna find out the difference between NYX and ICe, NMX.
Great job!
Speaking of OE, there is one issue I haven't figured out a solution. I am not sure if you and other friends have gone beyond me.
Every OE day, due to maximum pain theory, a stock is very likely to close at a point where institutional investors (option writers) could maximize their profits. This purposefully close is a shift away from the intrinsic value of the stock TA & FA wise. In other words, after OE the stock price should return to its real value. Let's take a look at an example. If it's not an OE day, GOOG could be traded at 510/share; instead, it is 505.**/share due to OE. So I believe this temporary off-set should provide us an opportunity.
To test my theory again, yesterday I loaded options on several highly manipulated stocks before close and am planning to cash out Monday morning. Whatever, it wouldn't hurt much because I would run away quickly. :-)
To Seth:
I agree with most of your ideas, how ever, here's some of my thought about ER and OE play:
Some thing about max pain theory, it might be true about max pain theory, like AAPLE jan's er and OE week, but sometimes it's not true. like last year GOOG's er and OE week.
When ER and OE happenend in the same week. It's extremely dangerous to bet on it. We have plenty of oppotunity to buy after ER and play pre ER run, why to bet on it? :)
And I want to have AAPL as an example, from jan to feb, AAPL's price was almost push to 80-85. It didn't up a lot after OE.
Since we didn't know the actual cost for MMs to write put/call options, we can not predict the exact close price of an manipulated stock :)
seth is SwingBH, right?
Swingbh 兄，
Welcome aboard.
you probably don't know these 2 young guys.
sterm, with his nick name as 反指，is a typical 北京二愣子。he lost the gamble on nmx to me last time, so that he switch to bet market index with me in next week. He said he will continuously bash me and I do like him.
skiii, with the nick name as 飞刀哥。 he learned my down trend prediction method, so that he is the bear, waiting to see the market crash everyday.
He is helping me to collect the bh/ah data. hard working and 有悟性。
Hi Seth,
thanks so much that you can give me suggestion all the time!:)
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Every OE day, due to maximum pain theory, a stock is very likely to close at a point where institutional investors (option writers) could maximize their profits. This purposefully close is a shift away from the intrinsic value of the stock TA & FA wise. In other words, after OE the stock price should return to its real value. Let's take a look at an example. If it's not an OE day, GOOG could be traded at 510/share; instead, it is 505.**/share due to OE. So I believe this temporary off-set should provide us an opportunity.
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Actually I don't think I got the experience you have build for such a long time:) But would like to discuss with you about what I have found . Again, thanks for teaching all the time!
bobobobo: I would not bash you if you don't like that :(
My word is just for fun not to hurt someone.
hehe, fanzhi,
bobobobo dude said he do like you:)
ft, I was wrongly reading his post:)
Tonight I was so sad since I saw the movie "Bridge to Terabithia". I did cried a lot since the pretty Leslie dead. I have not been crying like that for a long time :((((
ft hehe
you are so emotional.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGH4yIocf-M
I love AnaSophia Robb :)))))
combining with Seth's comment and action, I feel much more confident about the OE chance.
Cong to Seth's good call:)
Seth must make much money today on GOOG/AAPL/RIMM call, hehe.
Hi, guys,
This round I picked a wallet on the street. Like a blind cat running into a dead mice, I used GOOG July 210 calls to prove my hypothesis and made some $. :-)
Maybe next OE day we could work together.
Cheers!
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