Today marks the third day since the correction we have anticipated. The sell off appear s in every sector from the leader sector energy, utility , transportation sectors to retailer, healthcare sectors. The market breath is really gloomy. The volume picked up while a distribution is monitored. What we have seen is that 27 stocks from TOP 100 stocks drop more than 2 percent with increasing volume and no stock increase for more than 2 percent. We normally would expect a 3% down from down starting from correction and it seems currently market gets into a little bit over reaction. If you wanna find the superficial reason is that market reacts to the economy data that inflation could keep the FED off the table to cut rate in the near future. This is the assumption that market rallied in the past month and it disappears now.However you should look at thing from different perspectives if you are familiar with how market works.
This provides us an good opportunity to review our investment strategy, right or wrong, speculation or investment. Most of the time, don't mix the two concepts and you can react quite well in front of such situation. For example, I am currently holding AAPL, trying to speculate it until the release of iphone by the end of this month. The stop sell is loose $120 (bought at $113) to guarantee this purpose. But people would say that why not hold AAPL if it dips below that point? Yes, that is a good question you have to ask yourself what your plan is before entering such a trade. If you believe AAPL will have an amazing future, current price would be cheap. However for me, I can't fully evaluate AAPL's price until I can see how well the iphone works. Its current strategy with T really concerns me about its spread. The market would come back and prove whether you are right or wrong.
Still, if the stocks are fundamental sounds stocks, and you are targeting the investment purpose through your due diligence, your future is there, bright and sunny:)
28 comments:
Qianhu, thanks for the post which makes me think. I am experiencing my first `big' loss. I sold AAPL when the short expectation became high. My GOOG was stop sell today at $515 but I re-entered. If the market goes down tomorrow, all my holdings will be gone and I will take the loss as is.
Hi, I come to learn from Qianhu, bobobobo, brisk, fanzhi, ooseven, etc etc.
see today aapl's volume and k-chart , a classical hangman :(
Today's big drop make me re-evaluate my trading techniques.
既然wood也赏脸来了， 我就多说几句， 算是一个总结。希望大家能从我的失误中学到东西。
１，周一收市前，我已见到周二要下跌的信号，所以除nmx外的多仓都以清空。我是一个十分固执的人，相信自己的方法，就一定坚持到底。 如果你查一下我的旧贴，我对nmx的欲测当日最高价是１２８。＊， １３２。＊， １３７。 如果要说得很精确的话， 我的计算结果是１２８。８４。所以， 周二， 当nmx的当日最高价是１２８。９时，我的看法是it会回试５／５０天线支撑，而后冲１３２。
２，千户之前已发出大盘correction的警讯，这点我是认可的。我认为持有nmx是合理的，事实上也是合理的。因为从周一到周三， dow跌了２.９％，nmx跌了1.6%,而且是收量下跌。 我不能原谅自己的是，周一晚，skiii按我的方法，分析出大盘可能回crash, 而我没有在意，根本没有花时间去看一下。单凭周二的盘前，得出了继续correction的结论。从而导致了系列错误的发生。
３，周二我的june 130 call的 stop 在１.75就被执行了。由于我一向的思路是先大盘后个股。我认为dow在１３５３０会有支撑，所以在１。５再次买入june 130 call。我自认是也个很自律的人，个股跌２％， option跌20%一定清盘，但由于对大盘的错误认识，还是导致了很大的损失。
４，今天早上上班时，我听到了Morgan Stanley 关于１３％修正的说法，还是没有引起足够的注意。最终导致了又一天的止损。
５，结论， １）自己通过统计学分析建立的方法一定要相信，即使其中有些东西还未完全理解。 例如，在盘后， 大单抛售时，谁在接盘， 为什么？ ２）交易的纪律一定得遵守， 如果我没有坚持个股跌２％， option跌20%一定清盘的铁律， 今天我不会在nmx下跌到１２６时清空仓位，损失就会加倍了， 尤其对option而言。３）股市没有新老之分，只有对错之别。skiii才学了我的方法不久，他这次就用得比我好多了。
我要离开市场一段时间，让自己冷静下来。我个人认为市场以反转。目前需要确认的是１３２００及１３０８０在周线上的支撑有多强。奉劝大家在市场趋势明朗前多看少动或不动。 只要趋势明朗，long/short, call/put都有利可图。
千户， wood是我请来的，请务必加他进去。
support bobobobo.
我现在就是对自己没有足够的信心阿,止损还行,呵呵.
to bobobobo dude,
yes, your method is highly appreciated. I am thinking to have skiii to post the AH or BH data somehow here or in the forum.
hehe
to m31,
ya, the aapl's shooting star today didn't prove to be good .
fanzhi,
you maybe right this time.
千户这个大土鳖，又让它说对了 :(
AAPL盘前很强 :(((
总算下来了，好险 :(
千户, 你好厉害! :) AAPL和GOOG都表现的不是很好, 不知道下午会不会降回去.
局势不明，响应号召，stay sideline.再响应千户号召，写检讨和总结。
to fanzhi,
hehe, your TA need to be improved.
to bobby,
we will see bright future pretty soon:)
to chanel,
have you got the book that laoda recommend to read? if not, go get them.
I would rec to read how to make money in stock market by bill oneil first, then those two beginer's books which i have read.
Metronic, thanks so much for asking about reading the books. No, I have not read those books yet. I am reading the driver's manual these days and plan to take the written test sometime next week.
to chanel,
hehe, okey get your driver licence first:)
yes, as I said, yesterday market over react, and went through the 300 points estimation. Today market needs to compensate a little.
skiii,
check you mitbbs mailbox before market close
bobobobo:
The chart today told me that next coming weeks is not goging to be good for long. Please let me know what you think.
Happydayone
I am driving
You can talk to skiii
Happydayone
I am driving
You can talk to skiii
nobody here? Qianhu
guess it is friday now. I am watching movies,hehe. I also feel not good for next week, but since it is OE, so either side should be fine if timing is not bad.
to bobobobo dude,
you are so cool to connect to interent while driving.
to happydayone?
Next week? what happen to OE is that market won't go either way but sideway as brisk said. And remember that today's action shows what we are experincing is just correction.
hehe ,just have a good weekend.
anyone willing to write the market review this week?
Hi Qianhui,
My prediction for next week is: more red! Here is what I wrote on mitbbs:
----------
The market shall continue to fall in the short term. My reason is that the 10-year yield has not stabled at a level above 5.25%.
Last week, the bond market was full of blood. Many bond investors grow panic and sold. Goldman Sachs, Merril Lynch, and even Bill Gross came out and claimed they had
turned bear from bull. But the equilibrium yield of around 5.1% was reached when buyers came in and bought from the sellers.
Why buyers buy at this level? I think it's because buyers think this yield provides an attractive return comparing to other asset classes. So they bought despite the risks associated with "catching the falling knife".
That also means, unfortunately, that bond investors think the stock market will return only 5.1% plus 3-4% on average, or lower! And S&P has already gone up 6% this year.
Therefore, I won't turn bullish on the stock market until yield rises more and stock falls more.
hi scarface,
welcome here:)
I didn't see this until today, that is pretty good:)
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