Today after the Fed announce the 0.25 point cuts, a number that market has been waiting for, all the indexs shoot higher and higher. The Earning of Mastercard(MA)
lifts the whole financial sector that promote market from tanking after the news releases.
In our view, market rally will come at any time.
The rate cut fever has gripped even the best financial commentators
Gross called for a staggering 1.25% rate cut in his monthly musings yesterday, taking a big honking gulp of Kool-Aid while writing.
“Mortgage write-offs, credit card losses and increasing defaults on small business loans,” explains Gross, “will squeeze bank balance sheets and income statements for the next several years. That pressure in turn will result in more conservative lending practices, which will induce not a contraction in credit growth, but a noticeable slowdown.
“An increasingly recessionary-looking U.S. economy will likely require 1% real short rates and 3.5% fed funds in order to stabilize a potential growth contraction in lending not witnessed since the early 1970s or, to be honest, Roosevelt’s Depressionary 1930s. We can only hope that Bernanke, Paulson and their cohorts recognize the danger.”
Where’s Greenspan when you need ’im, eh? Oh yeah, he wouldn’t be much help in this situation, would he? On his book tour recently, Greenspan told USA Today he doesn’t think Bernanke has the luxury of cutting rates during every global crisis he will face… because if he does, the dollar will burn.
2 comments:
Hi, Qianhu bro, thanks for this comments on the market. And I agree with you: the year-end rally will come in no time. It is interesting to observe the panic in the market today (a huge down) and the not much rooted worries on the credit market. Yesterday's Q3 GDP result and today's less-than-expected jobless result both inform us the healthiness of the economy. More important, it is great to see the market just "ignored" them but focus on high oil price and ExxonMobil Q3.
I believe all those worries on oil, credit crunch and etc are more myths and they have been priced in a lot.
When people are panic like the previous Y2K, bird flu and etc, we can bet on the right side.
hi bac, yes, but sth need to pay attention:)
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