Monday, December 10, 2007

US in Recession while China won't

the U.S. economy is already in recession. At least, that’s what Friday’s jobs report suggests.

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) used a full suite of gimmicks on the November jobs report,” says John Williams of Shadowstats.com. “It was not credible and showed indications of heavy manipulation aimed at keeping jobs growth positive but still weak enough to pressure the FOMC toward an easing.

“Even so, the BLS reported seasonally adjusted November payrolls up by 94,000, following October's revised 170,000 gain. Unadjusted year-to-year payroll growth fell in November, to 1.04%. The decline in November annual growth, to 1.0%, has historic parallels seen only during recessions.”

This morning, the Chinese government made another attempt to cool down their bubbling economy. The central bank raised the required reserve ratio (RRR) -- the proportion of cash banks are required to keep on hand -- for the 10th consecutive time this year.

Under normal conditions, hiking the RRR has a cooling effect on the stock market. Not so in China. An RRR of 14.5%, the highest in China since the mid-1980s, barely gave buyers pause. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose a full 1% on the news.

Despite a hefty fourth-quarter correction, the SSE is still looking to return 90-100% this year.

Investors in Shanghai could barely spit on the sidewalk for the past two years without hitting a highflying stock.

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