Thursday, January 17, 2008

I think we are at the edge of buying now

Today, finally we monitor the panic sell with double average volume in a 300 point down day. And what we need to do is to wait patiently for a reversal now.

Merrill Lynch announced a $14 billion write-down this morning, bringing its total past $22 billion in the last two quarters alone. The investment bank was forced to take a $10 billion loss during the quarter, its earnings statement reported, the largest dollar loss in the bank’s 94-year history.

Thus, this week alone, banks marked down some $34 billion in bad subprime bets -- $18 from Citi, $1.3 from JP Morgan yesterday, and now $14 from Merrill. Oy… we’re not out of the woods yet.


Homebuilder confidence stayed at record lows in January, the National Association of Home Builders reported yesterday. At a score of 19, the NAHB’s housing market index rose one point from the lowest score since the association began tracking builder sentiment in 1985. The NAHB had revised December’s housing market index record low score of 19 down to 18. Like most other housing surveys, a score of 49 or lower implies pessimistic sentiment and negative growth.

But of interesting note, the NAHB’s measure of six-month expectations rose unexpectedly. With a score of 28, builders now have the most confident short-term outlook since August 2007

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