Friday, April 27, 2007

Market Review for April 27

This week both Dows and Nasdaq extended their strength into the record close of history because of the strong earning reports from several big names such as AA, AAPL, MSFT, TXN. The closing of DOWS and NASDAQ on friday with low volume let us think the profit taking action by hedge funds and small investors. The leader stocks we monitors don't show their strength as they did in the past 3 weeks, signing a time for consolidation is coming. This is further confirmed by our reading into market sentiment which has transfered into slightly bullish from bearish last week. VIX increases slightly , the risk associated with leader sector also increase after their strong move. Exchange Put/Call ratio has been reduced slightly below 1, also giving sign of market view change. The short squeeze also contributed to recent move.

Especially TXN almost play the role of hero in shinning the light into the semiconductor sector. Raising guidance of more than 9% gives investors big promise of future for tech sector for the remaining of this year. The price target has been upgraded to $38. But most likely it will be extended if their guidance is really delivered. AAPL reports impressive earning by their sales in macbook, leading almost $10 increase into its ER. We really appreciate their innovation of creating both wealth and efficiency to the customers.
However, we also witness that WFR, a recent strong wafer companies got hammered after ER. It is not that unusual happened for this stock. If we studied its past history, most of ER time, he won't have any good surprise. All of their performance have been executed before ER price movement. Larger than normal trading volume indicates a sell from institution. But this drop later on will give us chance to load a cheap quality company. The concern of competitors shows pressure into such price move but the analysis demonstrated that Solar PV sales remain healthy.

In sector view, energy sector, transportation sector , utility, and healthcare care remain strong but holds their gain into the end of this week. No distribution is monitored. The notes from FED" moderate economics and recovery of house market" assures the view that recession is not very likely, a catalyst that should be balanced the weak GDP growth data. Let's still eye on Earning next week.

Thinking in Option Trading (by Bobobobo)

the book I read was "The Option Trader Handbook: Strategies and Trade Adjustments "

conclusions from my option trading

1, must set 20% stop limit. option is one of the most emotional plays in this world. even a fool has chance to make 100%, however, it's possible you lost your underwear before you can make 100%. don't ask me whey set it to 20%. according to my experience, if a option call down 20% from my enter price, it will dip another 20% in one day.

for call

2, play with under valued stock/going to break out stock, these are the best ways to prevent time decay. I don’t like straddle.

3, don't call stock in the downtrend, don't call stock with rsi close to 80, william % close to 0.

4, if the stock price doesn’t change that much but option price up huge, sell.

5, if option price up over 100% in a day, which isn't in OE day or there is not very good news to support the break out, sell.

6, once the price meets your expectation, sell. one of my friends told me that I can sell 50% and let the rest run on themselves. it doesn’t look like a good idea to me.

7, for stock with good fa/ta/undervalued, at the beginning of month, play out of money option. by the end of the month, you can only play with in the money option whatever how good the charts/news is.

8, don't put all the eggs in one basket. usually, i have 50% money in oil, 25% each in others. Oil is very stable income, I have never lost in oil stock.

9, strongly recommend you start with oil/drilling equipment stocks. the reason for why oil is long bull is because the baby boom generation put most of their retirement investment in oil sector. since the stock is in long term uptrend, it is a lot more easy to predict the top and bottom. every time 2.5 to 3.5% price interval can bring you with 20 to 30% nice gain.

10, long term call. I have just started after re-studied mummy's post.

11, in the oe day, if the out of money call price is <=0.1 for a very active stock, and the strike price is within 5% of current stock price, use <$500 to gamble, you may have big chance to win more than 3 times in half day. My best record is to make 100 bucks become 700 bucks in 2 hrs.

For put

12, I am bad at this. all i know is to put goog when market down. :)

Pull back may not be good for Trader but for investor

Today, a breathe is monitoring for the overall market without any selling, a typical sign so far for market breathe. The market leader sectors and leading stocks are not performing,or even pull back. Remember pulling back strong hands are good opportunity for sharp investors who took the advantage of those weak hands. For example the AOB case, which tumbled to $8.4 after its ER, shaking out all the weak hands and pulled back right away to $10.5 in 2 weeks. Traders only follow the momentum while investors follow the value. Traders only care about the volume/price change, while investors care about bargains.
For each stocks, to beat the traders on the street, you need to use "dirty" mind and "clear" heart set in order to catch the opportunity once it appears. But finding the value of stock isn't that easy, we will discuss in another thread.

Check your style and make your move. Now WFR will be another case for investors for which its value based on my model will be $78. Let's test it in three months.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Hedge into the Energy sector ASAP!

You may think it is too late to get into this sector after Energy sector has been proved to be the leader sector together with Healthcare. Actually it is just the beginning. Several Companies in such sector e.g. BTJ, DXPE reported record sales booted by the strong demand, which matching with the information provided by Bobobobo.(pls check his post in the previous thread). The Summer is coming, sunny everywhere, enjoying the sun shine, huh? But pls don't forget hurricane is coming too!

The crude oil continues to increase by far,especially these two days.Have you seen the gas station's price change? Wow, it jumps from 2.50 to 2.90 just overnight today.
Let's see what behind this oil change.
Quoting from analysis:
=================
Frightening forecast
Predictions are rolling in almost daily now from various forecasters around the globe all claiming that the La Nina effect will increase the number and intensity of the Gulf storms this hurricane season. Some are calling for as many as 17 storms that will hit all along the Gulf Coast. The Gulf, especially the Houston area is well known for its refineries, off loading terminals, and drilling operations.
A direct hit into that area would be devastating. Even if there is no direct hurricane hit, just the threat of hurricanes in the area leads to disruptions and slowdowns that absolutely cut into supplies. These disruptions to supplies frequently occur during the height of the summer driving season and this year will be no different.

One two punch
In addition to the forthcoming weather concerns the ongoing geopolitical problems the U.S. is having with Iran and Venezuela are making matters worse.
If those situations continue to erode and major storms hit the Gulf Coast we could see gasoline prices shoot beyond $4 a gallon, especially in California and other high tax states.
Already we are seeing refinery runs getting tighter and tighter each week. As summer driving season ramps up we will begin to see those gasoline supplies deteriorate faster and faster. By August the situation could be come critical.
======================

As a matter of fact, get your account exposed to energy sector, such as VLO,BHI,and
BTJ,DXPE. Both BTJ and DXPE are added into IBD TOP list since last weeks. With the hot summer going , pumping the usuage for air conditioner, it should be really juicy for you to enjoy the upcoming consumption. I bought DXPE just after its ER. Both DXPE and BTJ's ER confirm my thinking, while we are driving, we need to get paid and protected! Besides that, trading into NMX with call could be an amazing play too.

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By the way, If not because TXN brought the optimism into semi sector, BRCM will be buried.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Profit taking comes on my table

Just now after viewing the weakness of Chinese stock market, I start to unload half of my holding, booking almost 50% of the profit that I build up in one and a half month, 50% gain of my total account. After reaching 3800 level in Shanghai Stock market, a hike about 45% in the overall market in about 2 months, it is about time for a shake out. Several key holdings in my portfolio have encountered strong resistance of further going up. This is an apparent signal that those funds are also unloading their shares. Without the institution's joining, it will be difficult to play with another run up. The chance for the market to go up for another month maybe 15% up, adding additional 400 points by the end of next month. However what could happen if the downside coming, will have similar range. Opportunity/ Risk = 1:1. Yes, again, I may miss the additional run, but not willing to be trapped into the over 400 points. To balance this risk, taking half of my profit is the best strategy I can think of currently without the assistance of any hedging tools.
海螺水泥
 中国人寿连续出现大单,公司与券商股一样也是证券市场火爆的最大受益者,仅其投资的中信证券账面收益超过200亿。

Be" Dirty" but with a "clear " mindset

Recently, the media is flushed with bad news, existing housing market dropped, new home sale drops, blabla, a very clear signal that the buffet's buying of USG has been forgot. A bad sign? Actually, it is not. As small investors, we should have a "dirty" mind and a "clear" heart. A dirty mind tells us that there must be something wrong behind the dramatically consecutive drop of stock price. A clear heart tells us that even sometime it looks "bad" superficially , indeed maybe an opportunity lying there waiting for us to pick it up.

An example of dirty mind here recalls the story of buffet's buying of USG, citing that house market is bottom. This news was broadcasted over the world by media, being afraid of that investors may miss such a big opportunity. Always remember, dirty mind set told us that it was a manipulation at that moment. Why? remember, institutions and hedge funds make money from small investors, if there is a chance, we will be the last to know. The trading volume efficiency told us that once the price soars, there were huge selling there. Hmm, if it was a good news, why should they sell?
Clear mind warns us the value of a company. AAPL, once it dropped to 90 for its news of delay in iphone, would be good chance to buy. Why? is it a good news or bad? will it affect the company in a long run? Whether the company explained any reason? Do the adjust their guidance?
If you figured out this, play with your sharp money and got reward.

Now the housing market has been doomed, comparing to the price change in USG? Cooperating with those latest news? No. Clear mindset brings it into our monitor radar again for several reasons. The market have been filled with bad news. Investors have been reduced their speculation into this area. People are holding their money into new house. Hey come over here,don't you see the new boom tech area? New H1b Booming? Houses are always needed unless you wanna sleep on the street. Copper price has been raised a lot which in another way informing that house market will be bottom soon. What shall we focus? yeah, materials used to build house, wood, steel, copper and alumnia. all are turning if you focus enough into those area. It is almost the time to buy into this area.

Be "dirty" while be "clear"!

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Tech, you should not forget in this hot summer

As what we have pointed out previously , the tech sector was depressed for quite a while. Their earning expectation has been lowered since last summer. INTC's upgrade, Earning beaten of GooG, will be jointly confirmed by the late Earning beat of TXN, the biggest communication chip makers after market close today. Now MRVL, QCOM, BRCM are also in the low level of their valuation. Investment or specualtion wise, they should not be forgot.
IRBT, LVLT,MRVL,QCOM,TXN

Monday, April 23, 2007

Digging is a virtue for the fortune

Normally we would ask , how could a stock price got crazy? soar 14% in a day, should I jump?
or has it been much more than I can sustain ,and I should give up. Hold on, if that is the case,
you may miss a double or triple bagger here. Psychologically many people believe that market is efficient, a price currently will reflect all the information that have been released. Is it true? However, the answer to this is not that simple, as what we have been fooled about the demand and supply when initially get into stock market. It is not completely true. Yes, the informations may have been released, but small investors , generally , have not been exposed to such kind of information, causing the imbalance in receiving the information. Or sometime even misleading information is released.

What do we do with that? How can we screen the news?
the answer here include two parts, the key value of this stock and the stock trading volume change. For example, the mysd which I bought at 3.7 and it has been doubled by today just in a month , can be used as an example. If just simply looking at its P/E, 489, my god, how expensive it is. The scaring P/E ratio stopped you from stepping further. But checking into its financial structure, you will find that it holds 8.4% of guangfa exchange whose earning is about 1000 times comparing to year 2006. The evaluation of guangfa will play a key role into such kind of plays. And if you pay attention to the trading volume change, should easily find out that the buying volume is accelerating in the past couple weeks. If this is not worthy, why should institution continuously get in? Yes, they know mysd holds shares, they know how much it would worth for those shares that normally we don't know.
Another example is HMIN. Why i won't buy it at current price?
Hmin has been appreciated by the investors after its IPO, giving it much higher expectation than the similar corp in this area, i.e. Hilton hotel. The standard industry PE is around 25, but its TTM pe is 157. Forward PE is 147,hmm, giving its 100% year growth rate, should it be valuated at this level? ask yourself. Whether this growth rate will slow pretty soon? how about in 2 years? It will be reasonable that its price will be evaluated at double of industry level , says 54. and therefore, its reasonable price will be $12. If considering its fast growing step with the appreciation of RMB, says 100 PE with 20% premium, the price will be $26.4. What is the upside if earning is 42 cents this year? estimated price maximum will be $46. Unfortunately it has reached to that level previously. This has accounted all the good news, no surprise. In such a low margin industry, 26% for Hmin, no one would expect above 100 PE valuation. The risk associated with current buying $33 to $46 , will be max of {33-26.5, 33-12} $21 downside. Upside is only $13. Reward/Risk = 1/2. A good buy or not? ask yourself. We may miss the upside move of $4 ~6, but it would be better that we won't be caught into the -$10 trap.

As a result, digging deeper is a virtue of the fortune!

HAS HSC are added into our watchlist

it is turning its business from negative to positive ,which has received the acknowledgment from the investors. Keeping an eye on it could do good to you since it also raise the guidance of this year. Stock repurchase plan means company has a bullish bias toward this calendar year.

Highlights

  • Net revenues of $625.3 million, an increase of $157.1 million or 34% compared to $468.2 million a year ago;
  • Net earnings of $32.9 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to net loss of ($4.9) million, or ($0.03) per diluted share last year;
  • All major product categories were up significantly, with growth driven by shipments of the MARVEL product line, as well as core brands including LITTLEST PET SHOP, NERF, PLAY-DOH, MY LITTLE PONY, PLAYSKOOL, TRANSFORMERS and board games;
  • During the quarter, the Company repurchased approximately 2.5 million shares of common stock at a total cost of $74 million.

Hasbro, Inc. (NYSE: HAS) today reported net revenues of $625.3 million, an increase of $157.1 million or 34% compared to $468.2 million a year ago. The Company reported net earnings of $32.9 million or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of ($4.9) million or ($0.03) per diluted share in 2006.

We are very pleased with the strong start to the year, with all major product categories growing year over year. Our core brands and new product initiatives performed very well with revenue growth for the quarter pretty balanced between our MARVEL business and all our other Hasbro business, said Alfred J. Verrecchia, President and Chief Executive Officer. That said, it is only the first quarter and there is still a lot of business to be done to achieve our full-year financial goals, Verrecchia concluded.

=====================
HSC

Industrial services conglomerate Harsco Corp. on Monday increased its earnings guidance for this year by 17 cents, citing strength in its global markets overall, expectations for normalized production levels in the U.S. and potential acquisitions. And investors were quick to say thank-you.

The increased optimism plus a 39-percent jump in first-quarter profit lifted company shares 4.9 percent, or $2.39 per share, to $51 in premarket trading after closing Friday on the New York Stock Exchange at $48.61.

The company said it now expects full-year 2007 earnings from continuing operations in the range of $2.69 per share to $2.74 per share, compared with a previous forecast of between $2.52 per share and $2.57 per share. Continuing operations excludes results from businesses that have been, or are in the process of being sold.

Last year, Harsco (nyse: HSC - news - people ) reported earnings from continuing operations of $2.21 per share.

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RS , the steel maker is climbing steadily.
GES, guess corp is also added into our list too.



Sunday, April 22, 2007

Recent Active Sectors in Chinese Stock Market

Commodity:
coal and steel sectors are running
601001 increased another 8% today, and total 18% increase after my buy point.
600299 also reach another 10% stop limit today.

Stock exchange :
600030 hiked at the open.The recently record exchange volume at the market will send this stock price higher and higher. If you check back the NYX and ICE from Jun 2006, will find out that the exchange sector will definitely have a nice run this year.
600868 also hike at the open another 6%, currently it has given the profit about 78% since our purchase at 3.74. The reason it goes up is that he holds accountable 8.4% of guangfa exchange , who hasn't got into IPO yet. Its IPO plan will bring stocks who got connection to it into a new domain such as 000623 who owes about 23% of guang fa.

Saturday, April 21, 2007

A simple method to screen the market

Note that the method is simple and complex methods for personal preferences, risk tolerance is different and have a huge difference. Add that such an approach is not suitable for everyone, even if the scan, and if you are not familiar with the TA. or are not familiar with the stock, often in trouble. Monmentum trading on the most important is the establishment of stop loss, no stop loss, and most were wipe out. Normally, we have 8,000 units. how to find monmentum? This will be returned to the definition of momentum. For instance,
1)you hope that the stock of RSI strong, eg. RSI >60
2) "You hope that the 60 stocks in the past few days price volatility, . eg. Price change% ">5%
3)you want of support For example, volume >2m
you can use this most simple standard look for the stock. Then again a bit more complex, For example, to find the highly controversal loser. Then you can use analyst bearish in the past weeks <> 20m sth like that.

Market Review for April 20

Last week,we have experienced the market breakout for its previous high in both DOWS and NASDAQ, confirmed by the new high in Utility and Transportation sector. This informed us that the low built in March 21 is set to be the low for another bullish run in the future. Active sectors
include healthcare, energy and commodity. The energy sector has been proved to be the leader sector concidence with the price hike in the crude oil, aimed by the demand for season issue.

The upgrade in INTC ,together with the Earning beating of GOOG- the best search engine corp, raised the guidance of investors toward the upbeat voice of the overall market.
However the shortterm stochastic reading has been into overbought region for the second week,possibly a pullback won't be surprise to us. The net cash inflow into the market is postive, meaning that institutions have positive bias toward the future. However a pullback of the market will provide good opportunity to buy into the market.

Several stocks recommended by us are listed below:
RS, MT,BID, MKSI
RS : the cup and handle pattern formed base is brokenout aimed the positive earning information, and volume increased to a very bullish level.