1， 这个方法得益于HQ和大千，及168上得来的一些启示。去年夏天的HQ是蛮有创造力的。我至今还记得他通过对goog以及几个leading stocks得研究，正确判断了大方向。而后发文感谢shadan，说他终于上水了。
当时我在build我的regressing model, 受此启发， 通过cluster /classification/discrimination analysis, 把更多的大盘指标股找出来加入到model里。发现还很不错。
2，我那时的model好是好，但是美股总的来说是短期driving by news, 长期driving by earning 的。如果我辛辛苦苦的分析完，第二天早上出了个什么news, 大盘摔个过百点，一样完蛋。书上一直就说很多分析师都非常注意盘前交易对个股的影响。大千和168上有几个不错的也很注意盘前交易。我就想能否我也把盘前交易数据放到我的model里面。在这个过程中我发现，大盘前成交量级可预示下跌有可预示上涨，如何区分开呢？结论是还是成交量。总成交量和部分时间段的成交量以及由此产生的关联对大盘方向的判断， 尤其是那种+ -〉=100点的日子特别有效。
这套盘前判断大盘方向得方法只是我众多方法之一。没什么好藏的。我的系统里，最值钱的是选股和价格预测，盘前方法只是confirm交易和预防下跌。分开几次帖出来，只是因为我一直抱有“授人鱼，不如授人以渔”的观念。我不希望一次过什么都说完，然后别人就照做。没有任何学习和思考的过程。我想robin在发了许多hcl的pick后，其实又有几人真正理解他的方法和他如何come up with hcl play idea 的思路呢？坦白说，这里大部分人都太在乎短期挣大钱而非理解一个事情的本质，然后找到最适合自己的方法。
我可以找到这个方法，很大程度上取决于我本来就扎实ta/stat功夫，所以在闪光点出现后， 我可以知道it得价值以及如何更好的利用。更重要的是我相信独立思考的重要性。
我的乐趣不是发帖，然后得到叫好声。我的真正乐趣是认识了一个事情的本质， 赚了钱，同时enjoy了独立思考的乐趣。
Translation as below
1, The methods benefit from HQ Daqian, and 168, due to some kind of enlightenment. Last summer HQ was quite creative. I still remember that he passed on goog and several leading stocks in the study, corrected judgment of a general market direction. Then he issued a document to thank shadan, he finally said he started to make money. At that time, I built my regressing model, inspired by this, through a cluster /classification/discrimination analysis, more large stock indicators identify them into model Lane. Found very good.
2, I was building the model, but the stock markets generally short driving by news, long driving by the earning. If my hard-earned analyzed, the next morning what if out of the news, and market had rapid drop-off point 100, the same jail. Book has been saying many analysts have paid great attention to the transaction on disc units affected. Daqian and 168 are also several very good attention to the disc transactions. I thought I could put disc transaction data from the model inside. In this process, I found, and the rapid turnover levels before fall may presage increases may indicate how to separate? Conclusion is still turnover. Total turnover of part-time and turnover, and the resulting correlation to the overall direction of the judge, In particular kind of point ->=100 + days particularly effective. This disc in the direction of the overall judgment method is only one of my many ways. No possession of the good. My system, the most valuable of-Selection and price forecasts disc methods only confirm transactions and the prevention of a decrease. Several separate points out, it is only because I have always been "delegated Mermaid, as a delegate to fish" concept. I do not want what one has finished, and then others will follow suit. No learning and thinking process. I think the robin in a lot of pick hcl, Several people in fact be truly appreciate his methods and how he will come up with the idea hcl play thinking? Frankly speaking, most people here are too short make big money lies not understand the essence of a thing, Then find the most suitable method. I find this approach depends to a great extent I was on solid ta/stat effort So the glittering there, I know it can have value and how to better use. More importantly, I believe the importance of independent thinking. I was not fun when posting, and then get applause. My real fun is a matter of understanding the nature, make some money and enjoy the fun of independent thinking.
Monday, May 28, 2007
Friday, May 25, 2007
The Last post in the next coming week
Sorry for all folks here, I won't be able to publish the Market Review this week because I am going to take the CFA test next month. I haven't spent too much time on studying it until last week that I found out actually there are many things need to be tested in economics and quantitative methods other than the corporation finance and accounting ,later of which are familiar to me. And this post, I will try to help you to understand several successful trading mechanisms by Livermore and Nicolas Darva so that later on you can build your own trading systems. Both of their methods have been extensively studied these years. and several people in stock board are using their method for trading. My explanation here is trying to help you to understand what is the real essence behind their methods. Most of their methods are related to momentum trading either by news or events and pre-setup. Their methods are not new but associated with different risk levels and experience level.
And this post won't be kept for long so that you may not remember what they are and affect your own creativity to build your successful system.
And this post won't be kept for long so that you may not remember what they are and affect your own creativity to build your successful system.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Questions that bobobobo raise about BH trading
1, who is buying and who is selling in bh/ah market?
Mainly those institutions and brokers who can see the trade books.
2,how long have you monitored the bh/ah trading? how many data do you have
for previous's down day(>=100 point dow). in terms your samples size is
larger enough, you can run a regression analysis
hehe, in term of down day, there is a high chance in the previous day that market show a shooting star which close at the low 20% end. and the second day, normally the second day will open high less than 5 ticks but turn around afterward.
3,the beauty of stat is even you don't know if there is any existing
correlation or not, you still can build a regression model, then use
stepwise method to find out which factor really affect the market direction.
hehe, we need sample sizes, and I believe this will be divided into a KNN classification problem. :)
4, in the day of feb, when market dip more than 400 points, what's the pre
market volume? do you expect multi-m volume in pre market?
that is abnormal which means super bigboys are selling their holding.
once you can answer these question, we can talk over the weekend
Mainly those institutions and brokers who can see the trade books.
2,how long have you monitored the bh/ah trading? how many data do you have
for previous's down day(>=100 point dow). in terms your samples size is
larger enough, you can run a regression analysis
hehe, in term of down day, there is a high chance in the previous day that market show a shooting star which close at the low 20% end. and the second day, normally the second day will open high less than 5 ticks but turn around afterward.
3,the beauty of stat is even you don't know if there is any existing
correlation or not, you still can build a regression model, then use
stepwise method to find out which factor really affect the market direction.
hehe, we need sample sizes, and I believe this will be divided into a KNN classification problem. :)
4, in the day of feb, when market dip more than 400 points, what's the pre
market volume? do you expect multi-m volume in pre market?
that is abnormal which means super bigboys are selling their holding.
once you can answer these question, we can talk over the weekend
There is always Gem in any panic or pull back
Everytime there is a panic , there lies a chance or opportunity. Let's see what we can get from this time. Originally I would like to postpone this to Weekend Market Review, but today feel it better to post here right now. Sell-off involves several reasons, one of them will be the psychology of the street guys. the reason can be attributed to the home sale data and greenspan's big mouth.
=================
New home sales had their best month in recent memory during April, prompting cautious talk that the ailing housing market may have hit bottom. But prices plummeted as builders work off a bloat of unsold homes.
New home sales surged 16.2% in April to an annual rate of 981,000 units, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was the best monthly gain in 14 years.
Better weather brought wary buyers back to the table, with sales blowing out Wall Street forecasts of 860,000.
=================
This data fades the view of rate cut by FED within this year. The bond rate also adjust to point to later than Sept ( Last week, the 10 years T-bills rate pointed to rate cut in Sept). Sounds bad? huh, probably. Any dark side comes with a bright one. The home sale increase actually confirms our view that house market is close to bottom if not as we discussed in the post.. Once the house market bottom, what we really need to care will be alumina, lumber, wood and anything that used to build house. I remember bobobobo has given us several stocks related to public building, most of the information already confirmed each other. As a result, let's find those valuable stocks.
USG purchased by Buffet of course is one we like. BLG, CSAR are directly related to house industry. Hope you can share your views of those potential companies in this area. Lumber, wood,...
还有一点值得我们商榷的是一个巧合。那就是greenspan的讲话发生在中美第二次战略会议达成小规模突破的前夜。换句话说，两点，QFII额度由100亿增加到300亿， 另外一点，明年起开始全面开放中国的金融业，允许美国的证券公司，金融公司大举进入中国市场。让我们设想一下，如果股市在QFII额度增加的时候继续高起，对于资本家来说利润大吗？ 我相信资本家是从不作解放军的，绝对不会作解套的工作。在金融资本进入低潮的时候让这些资本进入是否更好？ 让我们重新回顾亚洲金融危机，当年就是Soros在资金进入前大放厥词说亚洲资本有泡沫，导致股市，汇市大跌。他哥们得以安然进入，进而推高市场，获利出套。 那么今天的Greenspan和所谓的香港股神继续唱空中国股市的时间和QFII额度的增加的时间吻合性仅仅是巧合吗？ 中国股市随着市场的走高，风险是肯定有的。但是在我看来，没有泡沫。中国经济持续增长这么多年，老百姓们收益的多吗？没有几个。 这牛市才刚开始，就不断唱空，我是不相信的。中国股市，牛市依旧。今年已经被定性为“ 反恐年”。 什么叫反恐年，就是不要恐高，越高越正常。 Of course, correction during such a trend is not surprise. Today both indexes broke their trend lines which, if confirmed tomorrow, will last about 3 weeks.
=================
New home sales had their best month in recent memory during April, prompting cautious talk that the ailing housing market may have hit bottom. But prices plummeted as builders work off a bloat of unsold homes.
New home sales surged 16.2% in April to an annual rate of 981,000 units, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was the best monthly gain in 14 years.
Better weather brought wary buyers back to the table, with sales blowing out Wall Street forecasts of 860,000.
=================
This data fades the view of rate cut by FED within this year. The bond rate also adjust to point to later than Sept ( Last week, the 10 years T-bills rate pointed to rate cut in Sept). Sounds bad? huh, probably. Any dark side comes with a bright one. The home sale increase actually confirms our view that house market is close to bottom if not as we discussed in the post.. Once the house market bottom, what we really need to care will be alumina, lumber, wood and anything that used to build house. I remember bobobobo has given us several stocks related to public building, most of the information already confirmed each other. As a result, let's find those valuable stocks.
USG purchased by Buffet of course is one we like. BLG, CSAR are directly related to house industry. Hope you can share your views of those potential companies in this area. Lumber, wood,...
还有一点值得我们商榷的是一个巧合。那就是greenspan的讲话发生在中美第二次战略会议达成小规模突破的前夜。换句话说，两点，QFII额度由100亿增加到300亿， 另外一点，明年起开始全面开放中国的金融业，允许美国的证券公司，金融公司大举进入中国市场。让我们设想一下，如果股市在QFII额度增加的时候继续高起，对于资本家来说利润大吗？ 我相信资本家是从不作解放军的，绝对不会作解套的工作。在金融资本进入低潮的时候让这些资本进入是否更好？ 让我们重新回顾亚洲金融危机，当年就是Soros在资金进入前大放厥词说亚洲资本有泡沫，导致股市，汇市大跌。他哥们得以安然进入，进而推高市场，获利出套。 那么今天的Greenspan和所谓的香港股神继续唱空中国股市的时间和QFII额度的增加的时间吻合性仅仅是巧合吗？ 中国股市随着市场的走高，风险是肯定有的。但是在我看来，没有泡沫。中国经济持续增长这么多年，老百姓们收益的多吗？没有几个。 这牛市才刚开始，就不断唱空，我是不相信的。中国股市，牛市依旧。今年已经被定性为“ 反恐年”。 什么叫反恐年，就是不要恐高，越高越正常。 Of course, correction during such a trend is not surprise. Today both indexes broke their trend lines which, if confirmed tomorrow, will last about 3 weeks.
Thinking behind the pull back
Market sells off today after the big mouth greenspan's warning against chinese stock market bubble. This sparked a sell off in chinese stock market and many chinese stocks traded in U.S. What do we need to do in such a situation?
Based on my painful experience, several points you have to be clear about include but not limited to,
1) What is the reason behind the move?
If just because greenspan' word, we don't even need to think too much. He mentioned 2 months ago that there is 1/3 chance the us economy will get into recession. Normally Stock market points 3 ~6 months ahead of the economy, however what happen? DOWS hikes about 1500 points, do we see recession? Recently he sent out too much warning message which he was not supposed to do after resignation. I really suspect that he was helping someone on the street or behind the street to do sth.
another news about the pull back is the coming back of the house market which would reduce the chance of FED to cut rate as we expected before. However, no matter what, cutting rate is just a matter of time this year, any short term thinking will still be short term thinking.
=======================
copied from Yahoo
Investors were originally enthusiastic after the Commerce Department reported sales of single-family homes rose 16.2 percent last month after falling slightly in March. Although the average prices of homes plunged, the report still showed the economy continues to show signs of expansion.
The report followed data released by the Commerce Department earlier Thursday that showed sales of big-ticket manufactured goods posted a modest increase in April, indicating a continued rebound in business spending. The durable goods report suggested U.S. companies are in the midst of growing, and aren't afraid to spend money to do so.
With first-quarter earnings reports mostly over, Wall Street is placing increased significance on data as a catalyst for stocks. The reports on Thursday suggest that perhaps the Federal Reserve has steered the economy toward a soft landing, and that a rate cut might not be needed.
"Sometimes good is bad," said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy for Israel A. Englander & Co. "This takes away the anticipation that the Fed is going to ease interest rates because of the housing market."
================================
you see what the people on street think? He said good is bad. hehe sound ridiculous ? no. All we are waiting for is the rate cut. A rate cut will be triggered when we see the house market tumble, when we see the economy slows down. You can see how conflicting of the psychology may affect the market.
2) was the move triggered by any fundamental reason of the company?
If the stock pull back because of the big market, nothing really happen to the Fundamental, don't be afraid. Just hold your holding. If it is because the fundamental reason like what we see in HMIN, a disappointing earning reason. We don't wanna hold loser for such kind of reason. But from short term trading perspectives, it might be a short term bottom.
3) What do we do with those original trading plan?
Today's sell off actually destroyed many of my trading plan including DXPE, OMCL, HSC . You can refer to the previous posts that I describe about their pattern. Under such kind of situation, I would have no choice but give up my previous plan. This doesn't mean I won't get in. Indeed, whenever I found a clear sign again, will get in right away. Holding fundamental sound companies can help to release your anxiety :)
As far as I know, the ISRG's breaking out pattern (traded by laoda yesterday)is also destroyed.
And it is a time to buy sth cheap. Don't wait too long, because once market comes back, will be strong and quick.
Just some of my ideas.
Also if you don't feel comfortable of holding good stocks, pls listen
No Sell Even Die
:)
Based on my painful experience, several points you have to be clear about include but not limited to,
1) What is the reason behind the move?
If just because greenspan' word, we don't even need to think too much. He mentioned 2 months ago that there is 1/3 chance the us economy will get into recession. Normally Stock market points 3 ~6 months ahead of the economy, however what happen? DOWS hikes about 1500 points, do we see recession? Recently he sent out too much warning message which he was not supposed to do after resignation. I really suspect that he was helping someone on the street or behind the street to do sth.
another news about the pull back is the coming back of the house market which would reduce the chance of FED to cut rate as we expected before. However, no matter what, cutting rate is just a matter of time this year, any short term thinking will still be short term thinking.
=======================
copied from Yahoo
Investors were originally enthusiastic after the Commerce Department reported sales of single-family homes rose 16.2 percent last month after falling slightly in March. Although the average prices of homes plunged, the report still showed the economy continues to show signs of expansion.
The report followed data released by the Commerce Department earlier Thursday that showed sales of big-ticket manufactured goods posted a modest increase in April, indicating a continued rebound in business spending. The durable goods report suggested U.S. companies are in the midst of growing, and aren't afraid to spend money to do so.
With first-quarter earnings reports mostly over, Wall Street is placing increased significance on data as a catalyst for stocks. The reports on Thursday suggest that perhaps the Federal Reserve has steered the economy toward a soft landing, and that a rate cut might not be needed.
"Sometimes good is bad," said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy for Israel A. Englander & Co. "This takes away the anticipation that the Fed is going to ease interest rates because of the housing market."
================================
you see what the people on street think? He said good is bad. hehe sound ridiculous ? no. All we are waiting for is the rate cut. A rate cut will be triggered when we see the house market tumble, when we see the economy slows down. You can see how conflicting of the psychology may affect the market.
2) was the move triggered by any fundamental reason of the company?
If the stock pull back because of the big market, nothing really happen to the Fundamental, don't be afraid. Just hold your holding. If it is because the fundamental reason like what we see in HMIN, a disappointing earning reason. We don't wanna hold loser for such kind of reason. But from short term trading perspectives, it might be a short term bottom.
3) What do we do with those original trading plan?
Today's sell off actually destroyed many of my trading plan including DXPE, OMCL, HSC . You can refer to the previous posts that I describe about their pattern. Under such kind of situation, I would have no choice but give up my previous plan. This doesn't mean I won't get in. Indeed, whenever I found a clear sign again, will get in right away. Holding fundamental sound companies can help to release your anxiety :)
As far as I know, the ISRG's breaking out pattern (traded by laoda yesterday)is also destroyed.
And it is a time to buy sth cheap. Don't wait too long, because once market comes back, will be strong and quick.
Just some of my ideas.
Also if you don't feel comfortable of holding good stocks, pls listen
No Sell Even Die
:)
Comments about the Pull Back from comments:)
=====================
Early Warning sent by Bobobobo,
bobobobo said...
warning
check goog, gs, rimm, aapl, intc dell, vlo, nyx, etc pre market trade.
I will close all of my position except for nmx once market open.
May 24, 2007 5:46 AM
bobobobo said...
ok, just check with the economy news, check with the pre market trade at 8:01/8:02, mm knows news ahead of us.
hold cash or short
May 24, 2007 5:49 AM
bobobobo said...
yesterday's dow k chart was tipical 3 只乌鸦站枝头. don't lost your underware in this correction.
===========================
Wei said...
Naz is at a critical point. Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think. So my suggestion is hold tight. Dont trade too much recently.
May 24, 2007 7:34 AM
Delete
Wei said...
The market has been bull for a while. most index climb up a lot. under this circumstance, when the pullback comes, the market will send out very strong signal. 90% stocks drop huge in one day along with good news, huge volumn. By now, if the drops is triggered by bad news, dont panic. It is not there yet.
May 24, 2007 7:40 AM
Delete
bobobobo said...
Wei said...
Naz is at a critical point.
-----------------------------agree
Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think.
-------------------------I doubt it. what was driving the market in past few months? rate cut, good earning, buyout. what can continuously support the market? housing is bad, feb is more concern about inflation then recession, earning season is ended, we already have many buyout cases. the most important part, where is the money to continue support the uptrend?
=========================
As we discuss before ( the market condition), Both indexes have gone up about 10% since their last bottom. It is another time for a little pull back. The second pull back, if correct, normally will be in 3~5%. And the pull back basically will trigger another higher high of the market later on. Remember, we have about one month before next FOMC meeting. And any surprise will be positive surprise. The bull trend is there. Any pullback will be a chance.
Early Warning sent by Bobobobo,
bobobobo said...
warning
check goog, gs, rimm, aapl, intc dell, vlo, nyx, etc pre market trade.
I will close all of my position except for nmx once market open.
May 24, 2007 5:46 AM
bobobobo said...
ok, just check with the economy news, check with the pre market trade at 8:01/8:02, mm knows news ahead of us.
hold cash or short
May 24, 2007 5:49 AM
bobobobo said...
yesterday's dow k chart was tipical 3 只乌鸦站枝头. don't lost your underware in this correction.
===========================
Wei said...
Naz is at a critical point. Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think. So my suggestion is hold tight. Dont trade too much recently.
May 24, 2007 7:34 AM
Delete
Wei said...
The market has been bull for a while. most index climb up a lot. under this circumstance, when the pullback comes, the market will send out very strong signal. 90% stocks drop huge in one day along with good news, huge volumn. By now, if the drops is triggered by bad news, dont panic. It is not there yet.
May 24, 2007 7:40 AM
Delete
bobobobo said...
Wei said...
Naz is at a critical point.
-----------------------------agree
Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think.
-------------------------I doubt it. what was driving the market in past few months? rate cut, good earning, buyout. what can continuously support the market? housing is bad, feb is more concern about inflation then recession, earning season is ended, we already have many buyout cases. the most important part, where is the money to continue support the uptrend?
=========================
As we discuss before ( the market condition), Both indexes have gone up about 10% since their last bottom. It is another time for a little pull back. The second pull back, if correct, normally will be in 3~5%. And the pull back basically will trigger another higher high of the market later on. Remember, we have about one month before next FOMC meeting. And any surprise will be positive surprise. The bull trend is there. Any pullback will be a chance.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
The most important thing in Investment
Fundamental Analysis? No. Technical Analysis? No. That what is it? Let's see what those real successful guys tell us.
李：有人总结您能够十八年都不会从股市失败的一个重要原因，是您有一个像隐士一样平静的心态，确实如此吗？
杨：对，我经常对我的学生讲，炒股是六分心态、三分技巧、一分运气。
李：您的这个心态也是股市把您摔打出来的吗？
杨：摔打出来的。还有一个是我比较看得穿。
李：看得穿什么？
杨：钱是身外之物，你千万不要为富而来，为富而来的结果往往是贫。我和失败的人的区别就在于我期望值不高，是以一个下岗职工的心态在买股票。
李：为了养家糊口而买股票和为了一夜暴富买股票，心态的不同会带来什么样的结果？
杨：想暴富的一定是急功近利，为了养家糊口，他就把股票放着。你心态好了以后，可以用一句老话，叫宁静致远，比如这个行情涨两年了，谁越傻越放得住的，越赚大钱，这个放得住要什么？要心态 。
### Translation
Lee : Some people you can sum up 18 years from the stock market are not a failure of the important reasons, you have a hermit in the same calm mentality, and this is true?
Yang : Yes, I often say to my students, speculation is six hours mentality, one-third of skills, a breakdown of luck.
Li : Your mind is the stock market out your competent?
Yang : The temper. There is a comparison I see wear.
Lee : What to see what to wear?
Yang : worldly possessions money, you should never come to the rich, the rich from the poor results often. I failed and the difference is that my expectations are not high, based on an attitude of laid-off workers in buying stocks.
Lee : To feed their families and to buy the shares and who became rich buying stocks, the different mentality about what might be the outcome?
Yang : Through the will to be rich, in order to feed their families, he has kept the stock. You have a good mentality, one can use the old adage, called quiet Zhi Yuan, such as the Rising After two years, Who more silly attitude of the more up, the more money and to survive this up? To mentality.
===================
That is your mentality toward investment. We always talk about risk control, always talk about P/E, support, resistance. However those tricks are minor compared to attitude. In another word, you have to find your own way of investment. Many people at the beginning of trading always mix concepts of investment and speculation. However those successful people always find a way to suit themselves. For example, after you made a trade, do you frequently check the price of stocks? do you feel anxiety of your trading? If yes, you could be defined you are not suitable for a long term investors. All trigger yourself is the short term profit or lost. It would be better that you train yourself to be a short term or swing traders. This may not be true, just use as an example. No matter what strategy fit you most, find the one you need.
The way to find the right way that you feel comfortable may not be so easy. You have to try and error. One simple way you can do can be described like this,
1) forget about what others have told you, basically means once you find a stock, don't look at news about it, don't listen to others' opinion about it.
2) Try to understand the business of the stock in a simple way. How simple could it be? You don't need to look at its Financial statement, only judge by your own intuition whether this business will have future.
3) Find out what strategy fit you most, trader or investor. The best way that make you feel comfortable.
4) Design your plan, entry and exit.
5) Go for it.
6) If you lose, write down the reason, e.g. stop too tight? too loose? exit not reasonable?
7) If you success, count 1 onto the entry and exit strategy because it is a winning one.
8) Try several times until you find the right one. I would not rec you to use paper trade. Simple reason, it won't improve your mentality.
I have tried several tough ways until I finally find out that I am more suitable to be an investor involving into mid-term to long term trading through complete study of a company's business model.
最后以一句话佛经上的话总结，“找到了路，就不怕路有多远”.
( Finally, a word on the Buddhist concluded, "find the way and not afraid of how far the road." )
You will find your own way.
李：有人总结您能够十八年都不会从股市失败的一个重要原因，是您有一个像隐士一样平静的心态，确实如此吗？
杨：对，我经常对我的学生讲，炒股是六分心态、三分技巧、一分运气。
李：您的这个心态也是股市把您摔打出来的吗？
杨：摔打出来的。还有一个是我比较看得穿。
李：看得穿什么？
杨：钱是身外之物，你千万不要为富而来，为富而来的结果往往是贫。我和失败的人的区别就在于我期望值不高，是以一个下岗职工的心态在买股票。
李：为了养家糊口而买股票和为了一夜暴富买股票，心态的不同会带来什么样的结果？
杨：想暴富的一定是急功近利，为了养家糊口，他就把股票放着。你心态好了以后，可以用一句老话，叫宁静致远，比如这个行情涨两年了，谁越傻越放得住的，越赚大钱，这个放得住要什么？要心态 。
### Translation
Lee : Some people you can sum up 18 years from the stock market are not a failure of the important reasons, you have a hermit in the same calm mentality, and this is true?
Yang : Yes, I often say to my students, speculation is six hours mentality, one-third of skills, a breakdown of luck.
Li : Your mind is the stock market out your competent?
Yang : The temper. There is a comparison I see wear.
Lee : What to see what to wear?
Yang : worldly possessions money, you should never come to the rich, the rich from the poor results often. I failed and the difference is that my expectations are not high, based on an attitude of laid-off workers in buying stocks.
Lee : To feed their families and to buy the shares and who became rich buying stocks, the different mentality about what might be the outcome?
Yang : Through the will to be rich, in order to feed their families, he has kept the stock. You have a good mentality, one can use the old adage, called quiet Zhi Yuan, such as the Rising After two years, Who more silly attitude of the more up, the more money and to survive this up? To mentality.
===================
That is your mentality toward investment. We always talk about risk control, always talk about P/E, support, resistance. However those tricks are minor compared to attitude. In another word, you have to find your own way of investment. Many people at the beginning of trading always mix concepts of investment and speculation. However those successful people always find a way to suit themselves. For example, after you made a trade, do you frequently check the price of stocks? do you feel anxiety of your trading? If yes, you could be defined you are not suitable for a long term investors. All trigger yourself is the short term profit or lost. It would be better that you train yourself to be a short term or swing traders. This may not be true, just use as an example. No matter what strategy fit you most, find the one you need.
The way to find the right way that you feel comfortable may not be so easy. You have to try and error. One simple way you can do can be described like this,
1) forget about what others have told you, basically means once you find a stock, don't look at news about it, don't listen to others' opinion about it.
2) Try to understand the business of the stock in a simple way. How simple could it be? You don't need to look at its Financial statement, only judge by your own intuition whether this business will have future.
3) Find out what strategy fit you most, trader or investor. The best way that make you feel comfortable.
4) Design your plan, entry and exit.
5) Go for it.
6) If you lose, write down the reason, e.g. stop too tight? too loose? exit not reasonable?
7) If you success, count 1 onto the entry and exit strategy because it is a winning one.
8) Try several times until you find the right one. I would not rec you to use paper trade. Simple reason, it won't improve your mentality.
I have tried several tough ways until I finally find out that I am more suitable to be an investor involving into mid-term to long term trading through complete study of a company's business model.
最后以一句话佛经上的话总结，“找到了路，就不怕路有多远”.
( Finally, a word on the Buddhist concluded, "find the way and not afraid of how far the road." )
You will find your own way.
Trading on the Bull Flag
OMCL, just finished its flag pattern and start to run out of gate. The target according to the theory will be $28. I will elaborate this patter later on today.
==== Background of Flag Pattern ====
Bull Flag - Bull Flag Pattern
The bull flag pattern is found within an uptrend in a stock. This pattern is named for the resemblance of a flag on a pole. The bull flag is a continuation pattern which only slightly retraces the advance preceding it. The technical buy point is when price penetrates the upper trend line of the flag area, ideally on volume expansion.
Context: Found within an uptrend.
Appearance: The advance has solid volume and the upward price action is strong, which forms the vertical look of a flagpole. The resting period and slight retracement is narrow price action with a slight downward tilt or is horizontal (but no upward movement) with volume contracting during the flag portion of the pattern. The flag portion of the pattern has highs and lows which can be connected by small trend lines which are parallel, giving the flag portion the look of a small channel.
Breakout Expectation: The height of the flagpole may be added to the breakout area at the end of the flag to determine the expected advance. This is why the bull flag pattern is often found in the middle of stock advances.
==============
OMCL also release beautiful ER and guidance last quarter.Almost most of the stocks I will discuss here have sounding Earning. Trading on good FA stock enhances the chance of your success.
DXPE continues its journey to form the peanut breakout pattern.
Target is $56.
I don't know is there anybody pay attention to the TRT I added a couple days ago.
I tried to get in around $18 but it never touch and come back strong.
This guy has an huge 200% accerlated earning last quarter and is at the begining of its big rally run. It is a good candidate to double within 3 months. Pls also pay attention to this guy.
Market is triggered a sell-off on late afternoon.
However, excitement over the latest round of merger-and-acquisition activity waned after a media report that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan expressed concern about a sharp decline in the Chinese stock market -- which has recently been hitting record highs. Wall Street's mood was also dampened when energy prices failed to ease despite a rebound in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories last week.
Remember, any pull back is healthy, and any pull back will be a short time.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
What behind the HMIN's move
If you pay attention enough, will find out actually the small funds have no shares to dump hmin below $33 level , which has been built for quite a while. Even the unlucky dragon earning still hold this support.
This early morning, only 10,000 shares are used to trap short selling and panic selling.
No others , just no MM has the power. For those long, you should feel safe around $33. this early morning when I got to $34.9, I sold my speculation components for a profit, though not much. I just trade it according to my speculation purpose. Its $35 valuation should be just fine.
And much buying has been found around $34 level, as a result, $33.9 will be another support for short term.
From FA aspect, there is no downgrade on HMIN
DXPE continues their Journey after the peanut breakout.
Today could be another beautiful day as GOOG, ICE, BOT ran out of gate to lead the market.
SNDK down for being downgrade.
WFR, CSUN, SOLF all come back strong.
This early morning, only 10,000 shares are used to trap short selling and panic selling.
No others , just no MM has the power. For those long, you should feel safe around $33. this early morning when I got to $34.9, I sold my speculation components for a profit, though not much. I just trade it according to my speculation purpose. Its $35 valuation should be just fine.
And much buying has been found around $34 level, as a result, $33.9 will be another support for short term.
From FA aspect, there is no downgrade on HMIN
DXPE continues their Journey after the peanut breakout.
Today could be another beautiful day as GOOG, ICE, BOT ran out of gate to lead the market.
SNDK down for being downgrade.
WFR, CSUN, SOLF all come back strong.
Monday, May 21, 2007
When you need to sell your holding and cut loss
Many friends feel frustrated when they see loss in their account. Therefore I wanna post an article about when to cut lost so that we all may know the right thing to do at the bad time.
Normally entering a position, a clear plan should be in your mind. For example, this time even i bet into HMIN's er, a stop was set at $32.6 when I loaded around $33.1 last week. The strategy to set your loss stop may include 2% stop one or others. But in my opinion, setting the stop is a methodology which is quite related to every stock. My experience is setting stop right below its past 20 days low work the best.
==============================================
Selling Stocks To Cut Losses
Success in the stock market is as much about limiting losses as it is about riding winning stocks. A rule-based selling strategy can help you avoid heavy losses and preserve your portfolio. This lesson explains how to sell when a stock selection doesn't pan out.
Know When To Fold 'Em
Nobody's right all the time in the market, not even veteran market professionals. But as the famous investor Bernard Baruch once said, "Even being right three or four times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if they have the sense to cut losses quickly."
Being a successful investor is just as much about limiting losses as it is about riding a winning stock. Downturns are a part of life in the market, and you must act decisively to shield yourself from excessive losses. If your stock selection doesn't work out and you're faced with a loss, don't let your pride stop you from admitting you've made a mistake and acting quickly. Cut your losses early and move on. You must make rational decisions, instead of trying to rationalize your way out of a costly mistake.
It's not just your own personal opinions that can be wrong. Analysts or market commentators can be just as erroneous, and basing your decisions on their opinions can often lead to disastrous results. Investors often buy loser stocks, justifying their decision with remarks like, "All these Wall Street analysts are saying great things about this company," or "This technology is the greatest thing since sliced bread. The market doesn't realize it yet, but it's bound to become a household item." Famous last words.
Normally entering a position, a clear plan should be in your mind. For example, this time even i bet into HMIN's er, a stop was set at $32.6 when I loaded around $33.1 last week. The strategy to set your loss stop may include 2% stop one or others. But in my opinion, setting the stop is a methodology which is quite related to every stock. My experience is setting stop right below its past 20 days low work the best.
==============================================
Selling Stocks To Cut Losses
Success in the stock market is as much about limiting losses as it is about riding winning stocks. A rule-based selling strategy can help you avoid heavy losses and preserve your portfolio. This lesson explains how to sell when a stock selection doesn't pan out.
Know When To Fold 'Em
Nobody's right all the time in the market, not even veteran market professionals. But as the famous investor Bernard Baruch once said, "Even being right three or four times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if they have the sense to cut losses quickly."
Being a successful investor is just as much about limiting losses as it is about riding a winning stock. Downturns are a part of life in the market, and you must act decisively to shield yourself from excessive losses. If your stock selection doesn't work out and you're faced with a loss, don't let your pride stop you from admitting you've made a mistake and acting quickly. Cut your losses early and move on. You must make rational decisions, instead of trying to rationalize your way out of a costly mistake.
It's not just your own personal opinions that can be wrong. Analysts or market commentators can be just as erroneous, and basing your decisions on their opinions can often lead to disastrous results. Investors often buy loser stocks, justifying their decision with remarks like, "All these Wall Street analysts are saying great things about this company," or "This technology is the greatest thing since sliced bread. The market doesn't realize it yet, but it's bound to become a household item." Famous last words.
One Addition to Market Review May 18
Market Sentiment index remains in slightly "sell " domain, and stochastic reading keeps higher than 70, a critical point. Even a pullback won't surprise us and instead creating opportunity for us to buy your favorite stocks.
Market has pulled up 1500 points from its latest bottom ,almost 10% in a month.
HMIN will release its ER after hour. In my opinion, it should rebounce here.
DXPE is forming a bullish peanut break out pattern, what we need is the volume to pick up. If this is a true peanut breakout pattern, target will be $56.
Bidu has been chased by mutual fund managers who wanna share the interest rate hike in Chinese currency, opening at $132 and soon shot up to $135.
Northgate is a Vancouver, Canada-based gold and copper miner that mines in the Americas. The stock has dropped 7.8% this year and trades for 8.5 times earnings and 1.8 times book value. Gurus sold it down from their 32nd biggest holding to outside of the top 100 holdings.
NYX regains their strengths right at the open. Target $85 today.
AAPL comes out strong after OE.
=============Pls Check below for DXPE ====================
Our previous post to review its bullish peanut breakout pattern
=========== Update on HMIN ===============================
no surprise, 12 month target remain $35, and I am going to sell them tomorrow morning. Its guidance for next qtr is above expectation, representating an 29% quarter over quarter growth. However since from technical standpoint, it is around the bottom and not many mms have the share to dump it. It should be safe from this standpoint.
People concerns about the occupancy of the hotel, 8x% sth compared to the same qtr last year. I would say this may not be a concern since their second qtr is above analyst expectation which signs that the rate number would come back in this 2nd qtr. We need to wait until the second qtr to really find out whether they have problem , which I doubt. However as what I say before, its valuation is kinda in the high end, pricing in the positive growth by this fiscal year. My position into is soly based on the TA speculation. Therefore I would maintain my hold recommendation in HMIN before any good news released next qtr.
Market has pulled up 1500 points from its latest bottom ,almost 10% in a month.
HMIN will release its ER after hour. In my opinion, it should rebounce here.
DXPE is forming a bullish peanut break out pattern, what we need is the volume to pick up. If this is a true peanut breakout pattern, target will be $56.
Bidu has been chased by mutual fund managers who wanna share the interest rate hike in Chinese currency, opening at $132 and soon shot up to $135.
Northgate is a Vancouver, Canada-based gold and copper miner that mines in the Americas. The stock has dropped 7.8% this year and trades for 8.5 times earnings and 1.8 times book value. Gurus sold it down from their 32nd biggest holding to outside of the top 100 holdings.
NYX regains their strengths right at the open. Target $85 today.
AAPL comes out strong after OE.
=============Pls Check below for DXPE ====================
Our previous post to review its bullish peanut breakout pattern
=========== Update on HMIN ===============================
no surprise, 12 month target remain $35, and I am going to sell them tomorrow morning. Its guidance for next qtr is above expectation, representating an 29% quarter over quarter growth. However since from technical standpoint, it is around the bottom and not many mms have the share to dump it. It should be safe from this standpoint.
People concerns about the occupancy of the hotel, 8x% sth compared to the same qtr last year. I would say this may not be a concern since their second qtr is above analyst expectation which signs that the rate number would come back in this 2nd qtr. We need to wait until the second qtr to really find out whether they have problem , which I doubt. However as what I say before, its valuation is kinda in the high end, pricing in the positive growth by this fiscal year. My position into is soly based on the TA speculation. Therefore I would maintain my hold recommendation in HMIN before any good news released next qtr.
Sunday, May 20, 2007
Market Review for May 18
Not much surprise to see this week, Market continues to pull up whenever this is a pull back as we have anticipated. Just soon after the market gave up most of its gain on Tuesday for the weak retailer data ,it bounced back right away. This is a strong signal that market are so strong. We also witness that every dip got a buy to support the market. The new high is confirmed by the breakout again in Transportation and Energy sector. The new high therefore is regarded a valid high. Also the Policy from Chinese Government will continue to fuel the continuous growth of oversea market. The market relief a little bit from its extreme overbought situation after tuesday's distribution in NASDAQ, it is one way to reduce the cost for institution. The later market rally with higher volume signs the bullish anticipation. People may concern about that skew between NASDAQ and DOWS ,but in our view, this is acceptable because more liquidity is monitored in Energy Sector, Consumer Discretionary and Staple, and Transportation Sector. The skew actually will provide us the chance to buy sth relatively cheap.
From Economic View, The CPI came in at a “light” +0.2%. This benign number emerged with health care services and hotel rates surging attests to intense disinflation pressure elsewhere (air fares, clothing, autos). The year-to-year core inflation rate moved down to 2.3% for April from 2.5% in March. Such a reading would take the year-to-year pace to 2.07%, just slightly above the Central bank's comfort zone 2%. Therefore after this data, we can say in the future, market has no where to go but up because any news coming out will be positive surprise. The benigh number creates a good atomsphere that FED will take some action on their coming meeting at the end of JUNE. If the rate cut becomes true, Tech and Finance Sector will soon benefit from this loose control of monetary policy.
From Sector View, Transportation sector remains their market leader position. Recently the buyin from Warren Buffet into BNSF fuels a huge of money into such sector, signing a finance restructure in this area. This sector deserve further notice. Energy sector also advance their pace for the record high in Gas price. As we have pointed long time ago, hedging into this sector through the whole summer still be one of our strategies recommended. But one thing we noted is that VIX is turning high again. This will prompt the defensive sector especially healthcare and finance sector again. MA, NYX, JPM, GS are key stocks in this area. consumer discretionary sector also outperform after we pointed out last week when we see GM, MCD rally 8%. Restaurant chain Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) gapped up 14% to new highs on May 2 after its last rally.
From Stock View, AAPL advanced with another strong tech stock RIMM. Goog returned with one day strong step. MR rally 20% after strong earning. JADE, a hongkong based jewrey corp, breaks out their resistance and may go further. Priceline (PCLN) advanced with huge volume , further from their previously report positive surprise earning. CSUN, a solar company , starts with a big rally but followed by a profit taken action the second day. Several stocks show huge advance because of LBO include AQNT,OMR.
Our strategy remains the same, buy into several step whenever you see a pullback in your favorite stock. The current market rally is just the begining of another wave of huge rally. If Fed Cut rate in June, Imagine what could happen. Don't worry about any pull back because we view any pullback would be healthy for another market new high, any pull back will be short life.
From Economic View, The CPI came in at a “light” +0.2%. This benign number emerged with health care services and hotel rates surging attests to intense disinflation pressure elsewhere (air fares, clothing, autos). The year-to-year core inflation rate moved down to 2.3% for April from 2.5% in March. Such a reading would take the year-to-year pace to 2.07%, just slightly above the Central bank's comfort zone 2%. Therefore after this data, we can say in the future, market has no where to go but up because any news coming out will be positive surprise. The benigh number creates a good atomsphere that FED will take some action on their coming meeting at the end of JUNE. If the rate cut becomes true, Tech and Finance Sector will soon benefit from this loose control of monetary policy.
From Sector View, Transportation sector remains their market leader position. Recently the buyin from Warren Buffet into BNSF fuels a huge of money into such sector, signing a finance restructure in this area. This sector deserve further notice. Energy sector also advance their pace for the record high in Gas price. As we have pointed long time ago, hedging into this sector through the whole summer still be one of our strategies recommended. But one thing we noted is that VIX is turning high again. This will prompt the defensive sector especially healthcare and finance sector again. MA, NYX, JPM, GS are key stocks in this area. consumer discretionary sector also outperform after we pointed out last week when we see GM, MCD rally 8%. Restaurant chain Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) gapped up 14% to new highs on May 2 after its last rally.
From Stock View, AAPL advanced with another strong tech stock RIMM. Goog returned with one day strong step. MR rally 20% after strong earning. JADE, a hongkong based jewrey corp, breaks out their resistance and may go further. Priceline (PCLN) advanced with huge volume , further from their previously report positive surprise earning. CSUN, a solar company , starts with a big rally but followed by a profit taken action the second day. Several stocks show huge advance because of LBO include AQNT,OMR.
Our strategy remains the same, buy into several step whenever you see a pullback in your favorite stock. The current market rally is just the begining of another wave of huge rally. If Fed Cut rate in June, Imagine what could happen. Don't worry about any pull back because we view any pullback would be healthy for another market new high, any pull back will be short life.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
CSUN landing
getting in:)
This guy open really benign, around $12.
According to its current price, we get trailing P/E around 35.
But check its competitor's PE,STP 52, TSL, 74, JASO 56.
if we take the min of P/E, 52, the price could go to $18.
Speculate or not , it is in your hand.
===
setting a trailing stop for CSUN
NMX comes back from its $120 support. This is a super strong support, huh?
really good for playing option around this area.
===
CSUN hit the trailing stop just now hehe
This guy open really benign, around $12.
According to its current price, we get trailing P/E around 35.
But check its competitor's PE,STP 52, TSL, 74, JASO 56.
if we take the min of P/E, 52, the price could go to $18.
Speculate or not , it is in your hand.
===
setting a trailing stop for CSUN
NMX comes back from its $120 support. This is a super strong support, huh?
really good for playing option around this area.
===
CSUN hit the trailing stop just now hehe
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Ready for the Solar Shine on Thursday?
Last year, we strongly recommended STP for its No.1 rank in solar energy industry which provides capital gain about 70%. This year, we have witnessed the TSL, JASO shining through the whole spring after the energy becomes the hot topic again. If you have missed all of their plays, here may comes another chance. Yes, another opportunity on this coming Thursday.
The following info is credited to paopao (TPP).
CSUN - China Sunergy IPO
China Sunergy, a manufacturer of solar cell products, announced the terms of its IPO Friday. The company plans to offer 8.5 million ADSs at a price range of $8 to $10. The ADSs will each represent six ordinary shares and are expected to trade on the NASDAQ. Merrill Lynch is the sole bookrunner on the deal.
It is a better company than TSL and JASO. Why?
1. People
two guys , huaiqing yang, one founder of STP, help to grab the fund for this company.
Jianhua Zhao, the chief scientist who came from the same lab from Dr.Shi in australia,owes the world record in solar energy conversion efficiency.
2. Financial Highlights
Our total net revenues increased by $135.8 million, from $13.7 million in 2005 to $149.5 million in 2006...Our cost of revenues increased by $111.1 million, from $11.8 million in 2005 to $122.9 million in 2006... our gross profit in 2006 increased by $24.6 million to $26.6 million, from $2.0 million in 2005. Our gross margin increased from 14.2% to 17.8% during the same periods...We turned a net loss of $0.3 million in 2005 into a net income $11.8 million in 2006. In 2006, our net margin was 7.9%.
3. Its History and strong government background
Their government background is even stronger than STP.
2005年4月3日 中电光伏二期工程开工，掀开了中电光伏发展新的一页。
2005年4月23日 第一台进口设备（捷克）——扩散炉进厂。
2005年5月24日 最后一台进口设备（美国）——烧结炉进厂
2005年6月25日 中电光伏首条生产线一次性试产成功
2005年6月28日 南京市市长蒋宏坤专门赶来祝公司试产成功。
2005年7月9日 省发改委主任钱志新带领考察组对我们进行实地考察。
2005年10月11日 公司常务副总经理殷广友代表公司与全球最大的硅原料生产商——德国PV Silicon AG公司签署战略合作伙伴关系的协议。
2005年10月7日 江苏省委书记李源潮莅临我公司视察。
2005年10月21日 江苏省省长梁保华莅临我公司视察。
2005年10月22日 国务院总理温家宝在国务委员兼国务院秘书长华建敏、国务委员陈至立以及江苏省委、省政府领导的陪同下对我公司进行视察。
2005年10月25日
总经理赵建华博士从南京市委书记罗志军手中接过首届华人华侨专业人士“杰出创业奖”的证书。
2006年3月3日 中电电气南京光伏与普凯投资基金进行了签约仪式。
2006年3月18日 中电电气南京光伏第二、三条生产线安装完毕。
2006年3月23日
中电电气南京光伏与崇德投资基金以及清华创投进行了签约仪式。
2006年5月1日 中电电气南京光伏董事长陆廷秀获得江苏省劳模的荣誉称号。
2006年5月8日 中电电气南京光伏第二、三条生产线全面达产，公司太阳电池生产能力达到90兆瓦。
All in all, this thursday, we will find things out.
The following info is credited to paopao (TPP).
CSUN - China Sunergy IPO
China Sunergy, a manufacturer of solar cell products, announced the terms of its IPO Friday. The company plans to offer 8.5 million ADSs at a price range of $8 to $10. The ADSs will each represent six ordinary shares and are expected to trade on the NASDAQ. Merrill Lynch is the sole bookrunner on the deal.
It is a better company than TSL and JASO. Why?
1. People
two guys , huaiqing yang, one founder of STP, help to grab the fund for this company.
Jianhua Zhao, the chief scientist who came from the same lab from Dr.Shi in australia,owes the world record in solar energy conversion efficiency.
2. Financial Highlights
Our total net revenues increased by $135.8 million, from $13.7 million in 2005 to $149.5 million in 2006...Our cost of revenues increased by $111.1 million, from $11.8 million in 2005 to $122.9 million in 2006... our gross profit in 2006 increased by $24.6 million to $26.6 million, from $2.0 million in 2005. Our gross margin increased from 14.2% to 17.8% during the same periods...We turned a net loss of $0.3 million in 2005 into a net income $11.8 million in 2006. In 2006, our net margin was 7.9%.
3. Its History and strong government background
Their government background is even stronger than STP.
2005年4月3日 中电光伏二期工程开工，掀开了中电光伏发展新的一页。
2005年4月23日 第一台进口设备（捷克）——扩散炉进厂。
2005年5月24日 最后一台进口设备（美国）——烧结炉进厂
2005年6月25日 中电光伏首条生产线一次性试产成功
2005年6月28日 南京市市长蒋宏坤专门赶来祝公司试产成功。
2005年7月9日 省发改委主任钱志新带领考察组对我们进行实地考察。
2005年10月11日 公司常务副总经理殷广友代表公司与全球最大的硅原料生产商——德国PV Silicon AG公司签署战略合作伙伴关系的协议。
2005年10月7日 江苏省委书记李源潮莅临我公司视察。
2005年10月21日 江苏省省长梁保华莅临我公司视察。
2005年10月22日 国务院总理温家宝在国务委员兼国务院秘书长华建敏、国务委员陈至立以及江苏省委、省政府领导的陪同下对我公司进行视察。
2005年10月25日
总经理赵建华博士从南京市委书记罗志军手中接过首届华人华侨专业人士“杰出创业奖”的证书。
2006年3月3日 中电电气南京光伏与普凯投资基金进行了签约仪式。
2006年3月18日 中电电气南京光伏第二、三条生产线安装完毕。
2006年3月23日
中电电气南京光伏与崇德投资基金以及清华创投进行了签约仪式。
2006年5月1日 中电电气南京光伏董事长陆廷秀获得江苏省劳模的荣誉称号。
2006年5月8日 中电电气南京光伏第二、三条生产线全面达产，公司太阳电池生产能力达到90兆瓦。
All in all, this thursday, we will find things out.
Finding Neverland in High Volatile Market
Today, Dows holds green because of GM. As mentioned before, consumer discretionary sector starts to play, giving us the chance to see that DOWS green while many NASDAQ turns red. This is not surprise because DOWS is more tied to those consumer staple and consumer discretionary sector than NASDAQ where most high tech corporation are traded.
This market actually requires us to be patient in finding the deal, good deal. And today's show reminds me one stock, TZOO, yeah, a international travel agency corporation.
Why TZOO?
1)It has stable cash flow
2) 5 year sale growth rate 63%
3) TTM EPS growth rate 72%
Why we consider it now?
1) Its earning last quarter was $0.25, missed by 7 cents , and only 4% increase compared to its previous quarter.
2) It remains the guidance of the whole year, which means the full year earing will still around $1.1.
3) Company announced $1M buyback of their shares.
4) with Earning expectation, the forward P/E will be 25, current TTM P/E is 27.8
5) TA point, it is close to a year low around $26.5.
This is really nice bargain compared to its earning pershare.
The risk associated:
1) 4% growth rate, compared to same quarter last year due to the overexpense of advertisement, would it be the same in the next quarter?
2) whether the recent "give away top 20 list" will reduce its sale next quarter?
As for all, eyes on any change on their advertisment strategy, this will very likely give us a good deal.
And for those stocks that are in your watchlist, clear out the mindset of their support level, their fudanmental so that you have a decisive point where is the best price for you to get into.
This market actually requires us to be patient in finding the deal, good deal. And today's show reminds me one stock, TZOO, yeah, a international travel agency corporation.
Why TZOO?
1)It has stable cash flow
2) 5 year sale growth rate 63%
3) TTM EPS growth rate 72%
Why we consider it now?
1) Its earning last quarter was $0.25, missed by 7 cents , and only 4% increase compared to its previous quarter.
2) It remains the guidance of the whole year, which means the full year earing will still around $1.1.
3) Company announced $1M buyback of their shares.
4) with Earning expectation, the forward P/E will be 25, current TTM P/E is 27.8
5) TA point, it is close to a year low around $26.5.
This is really nice bargain compared to its earning pershare.
The risk associated:
1) 4% growth rate, compared to same quarter last year due to the overexpense of advertisement, would it be the same in the next quarter?
2) whether the recent "give away top 20 list" will reduce its sale next quarter?
As for all, eyes on any change on their advertisment strategy, this will very likely give us a good deal.
And for those stocks that are in your watchlist, clear out the mindset of their support level, their fudanmental so that you have a decisive point where is the best price for you to get into.
CPI index is really benign
All eyes for the rate cut, rate cut. Bonds got sell off. This is the good news for market. Once we see the rate cut, Market will rally huge. Currently, according to the central bank overnight borrowing rate, it could be september that we can see the first rate cut.
MR breakout with in-line earning.
HTLD assigns special dividend, pumping the stock for 10%.
It is recently added to IBD TOP 100 with strong earning.
GM remains strong, another 4% increase (total 8% ) after we mentioned on Last Friday.
MR breakout with in-line earning.
HTLD assigns special dividend, pumping the stock for 10%.
It is recently added to IBD TOP 100 with strong earning.
GM remains strong, another 4% increase (total 8% ) after we mentioned on Last Friday.
Monday, May 14, 2007
TOP 10 leading Sectors by Monday
1. Steel Producer
2. Energy
3. Metal Proc & Fabrication
4. Chemicals
5. Auto/Truck tires
6. Trucks & parts
7. Transportation
8. Metal Ores
9. Oil&Gas refining/mkt
10. Aerospace/Defense Equipment
2. Energy
3. Metal Proc & Fabrication
4. Chemicals
5. Auto/Truck tires
6. Trucks & parts
7. Transportation
8. Metal Ores
9. Oil&Gas refining/mkt
10. Aerospace/Defense Equipment
Initiate my Coverage on TRT
from today.
GM, F, BTJ are strong. BTJ wanna break out.
And News on the stocks that I cover:
HSC: target $72 Rating: Buy
Harsco's Patent Division Awarded $3.5 Million Contract to Support Seattle Reservoir Project
Harsco's Huennebeck Division Adds to Major Projects With New $3 Million Formwork and Shoring Order in France
HARRISBURG, Pa., May 14, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Worldwide industrial services company Harsco Corporation (NYSE:HSC) announced today that its Huennebeck division has received a new order valued at more than $3 million to supply rental formwork and shoring for the construction of a new office tower in Marseille, France, that will become that city's tallest building.
GM, F, BTJ are strong. BTJ wanna break out.
And News on the stocks that I cover:
HSC: target $72 Rating: Buy
Harsco's Patent Division Awarded $3.5 Million Contract to Support Seattle Reservoir Project
Harsco's Huennebeck Division Adds to Major Projects With New $3 Million Formwork and Shoring Order in France
HARRISBURG, Pa., May 14, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Worldwide industrial services company Harsco Corporation (NYSE:HSC) announced today that its Huennebeck division has received a new order valued at more than $3 million to supply rental formwork and shoring for the construction of a new office tower in Marseille, France, that will become that city's tallest building.
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Market Review for May 11
This week ends with a green gain on friday following its previous one day 148 points pullback, this kind of action still support the view that market is bullish. No doubt about that. However, the dillema we face can be described like this, our market momentum reading remains in the " sell " domain, not getting worse, but remains slightly into this domain. Meanwhile the stochastic reading remained in extremely "overbought " reading, and those previous leading sector as what we have described such as Transportation ease a little bit. All these signal us that market needs another healthy pullback. But on Friday, we have found that many hedges fund buy in such a market, together with few institution buying, will give us a hard time to decide what could be the best strategy to get into this market. In another word, at what point, what kind of pull back shall we get into? The hedge funds take every chance to buy into the market, though some are using the chance to cover their short position, an appearance that make us believe any pullback will be healthy, while any pullback will be in a short amonout of time. This means that if we don't react quickly, probably will lose the opportunity. Our previous rec strategy " buying around support " maybe need to revise a little bit. Maybe it should be changed like this :
1) whenever we see a big pull back in your favorite stocks, buy 1/3 of shares you want.
2) around support , buy another 1/3,
3) dipping 2 points, get in with full bullets.
From Economic side, GDP growth rate is around 2.3%, if not considering the inflation rate, we will see the economy will continue to slow down in the second quarter. More interesting is what we have seen in the FOMC statement that says economic activity slowed in the first part of the year but policymakers continue to expect a rebound to moderate growth during the rest of the year. You see that? it tells us that they believe the economy should be fine, as we always believe. The slow in the second quarter will help the inflation rate to get into FED's comfortable zoom 2%. At that time, a rate cut will be coming. These are all good or catalyst for a huge move in the market. And always remember, Hedge funds and few institution have already started to buy. That is the move of smart money.
From Sector side, leading sector , transportation sector, energy sector slow down their pace in advance. On thursday, energy sector pulled back around 2% , the biggest pull back in the past 3 weeks. Utility sector hasn't made their new move either. the increasing volatility associated with the advance in such sector should be a warning sign to us for risk management. Short-term or swing trading in this two sector could be better strategy. The gasoline price breakout , outpacing the crude oil price, proves that much speculative money have been into such a play. Normally as volatility increase, consumer stapler and consumer discretionary sector could outperform. Especially consumer discretionary hasn't made a new high, giving us a contrarian play chance. The consumer discretionary spending sector involves some interesting stock groups, and brand names and, in my view, some of the best opportunities to grow your personal wealth. This is a sector that most people can relate to.
The key stocks in this sector are Dow 30 components, Disney (DIS), General Motors (GM), Home Depot (HD) and McDonalds (MCD).
On friday, the money flow into Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Buffalo Wild Wings, (BWLD) two restaurant stocks may tell us this sector will start to play soon. This sector is a sector used to balance risk, similar function as MA, SBUX.
From Stock view, chinese related stock such as PTR,LFC, SNP benefits from the loose policy restrition on refined stocks. Meanwhile, we see that FFHL got slaughter too. It is not surprise to see that. After considering the tax benefit , FFHL acutally is losing money by 14%. and in the future, its losing taxt-exampt shield will get its earing worse and worse considering it slow growth rate and market share lost. Therefore don't touch this corp if you wanna invest. AAPL continues to advance on the view of mac tablet and its coming release of Iphone. I have been checked into local apple stocks three times in the past week for 1 hour pertime. During this one hour, an average 4 mac books plus 2 mac pro are sold, similar to what I got previously. However, not many people are buying ipod, could be attributed that people are waiting for the coming iphone.
In conclusion, market overbought with fast hedge fund action needs us to react quickly while patiently. Don't be forced to get in if not feel comfortable. However , market remain bullish, it is just a matter of cost that you got into the favorite stocks and your gain in 6 to 12 months.
Good luck !
1) whenever we see a big pull back in your favorite stocks, buy 1/3 of shares you want.
2) around support , buy another 1/3,
3) dipping 2 points, get in with full bullets.
From Economic side, GDP growth rate is around 2.3%, if not considering the inflation rate, we will see the economy will continue to slow down in the second quarter. More interesting is what we have seen in the FOMC statement that says economic activity slowed in the first part of the year but policymakers continue to expect a rebound to moderate growth during the rest of the year. You see that? it tells us that they believe the economy should be fine, as we always believe. The slow in the second quarter will help the inflation rate to get into FED's comfortable zoom 2%. At that time, a rate cut will be coming. These are all good or catalyst for a huge move in the market. And always remember, Hedge funds and few institution have already started to buy. That is the move of smart money.
From Sector side, leading sector , transportation sector, energy sector slow down their pace in advance. On thursday, energy sector pulled back around 2% , the biggest pull back in the past 3 weeks. Utility sector hasn't made their new move either. the increasing volatility associated with the advance in such sector should be a warning sign to us for risk management. Short-term or swing trading in this two sector could be better strategy. The gasoline price breakout , outpacing the crude oil price, proves that much speculative money have been into such a play. Normally as volatility increase, consumer stapler and consumer discretionary sector could outperform. Especially consumer discretionary hasn't made a new high, giving us a contrarian play chance. The consumer discretionary spending sector involves some interesting stock groups, and brand names and, in my view, some of the best opportunities to grow your personal wealth. This is a sector that most people can relate to.
The key stocks in this sector are Dow 30 components, Disney (DIS), General Motors (GM), Home Depot (HD) and McDonalds (MCD).
On friday, the money flow into Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Buffalo Wild Wings, (BWLD) two restaurant stocks may tell us this sector will start to play soon. This sector is a sector used to balance risk, similar function as MA, SBUX.
From Stock view, chinese related stock such as PTR,LFC, SNP benefits from the loose policy restrition on refined stocks. Meanwhile, we see that FFHL got slaughter too. It is not surprise to see that. After considering the tax benefit , FFHL acutally is losing money by 14%. and in the future, its losing taxt-exampt shield will get its earing worse and worse considering it slow growth rate and market share lost. Therefore don't touch this corp if you wanna invest. AAPL continues to advance on the view of mac tablet and its coming release of Iphone. I have been checked into local apple stocks three times in the past week for 1 hour pertime. During this one hour, an average 4 mac books plus 2 mac pro are sold, similar to what I got previously. However, not many people are buying ipod, could be attributed that people are waiting for the coming iphone.
In conclusion, market overbought with fast hedge fund action needs us to react quickly while patiently. Don't be forced to get in if not feel comfortable. However , market remain bullish, it is just a matter of cost that you got into the favorite stocks and your gain in 6 to 12 months.
Good luck !
Saturday, May 12, 2007
Discussion Thread on MR (by Fanzhi,bobby and others)
Why? the NYX never go above 9EMA. It has an ultimate resist when try to break it. GS try to dump it. And
However now MR give me some hope to hold it. Since it succeesfully stand above 50EMA, the ER is some big hope. Now I have 30 MAY 25 call with avg cost 0.3. I want to change my plan, I will sold 15 may call next monday around 0.6-0.7. And hold others for ER.
I have read the Chinese declearation that Chinese citizen can invest stocks outside China, that might be a good news for all Chinese stocks and US stocks. And we could also buy some Chinese bussiness bank stocks.
====
fanzhi, MR was my old favorite but I don't have high hope for its Q1 ER. Not sure about their outlook. But don't think the earning for Q1 will beat the estimated 11c. I get the sense after reading their last CC transcript.
http://china.seekingalpha.com/article/29332
When they reported the Q4 earning, it was already March, they should have a rough idea about Q1 performance. But they did not give a quarterly guidance and asked the analysts to focus on the whole year. Q1 is slow anyway because of lunar new year. Did government anti-corruption movement go away in Q1? No. Actually, I feel it is even tougher based on my talks with family members and friends.
Internationally, the company has high hope for the US market, yet we do not have any new development on additional FDA approval beyond the old number of 7 products. And their expenses would not decrease due to the aggressive R&D expansion and sales expense. As sad as it is, R&D is often the killing part for those Chinese companies that aim high. It is much easier and more profitable to copycat.
I actually support America's complaint over China's IP violation. China needs to accelarate its legislation and protect IP. It is not only about Spider man III, it is for our good in the long run.
However now MR give me some hope to hold it. Since it succeesfully stand above 50EMA, the ER is some big hope. Now I have 30 MAY 25 call with avg cost 0.3. I want to change my plan, I will sold 15 may call next monday around 0.6-0.7. And hold others for ER.
I have read the Chinese declearation that Chinese citizen can invest stocks outside China, that might be a good news for all Chinese stocks and US stocks. And we could also buy some Chinese bussiness bank stocks.
====
fanzhi, MR was my old favorite but I don't have high hope for its Q1 ER. Not sure about their outlook. But don't think the earning for Q1 will beat the estimated 11c. I get the sense after reading their last CC transcript.
http://china.seekingalpha.com/article/29332
When they reported the Q4 earning, it was already March, they should have a rough idea about Q1 performance. But they did not give a quarterly guidance and asked the analysts to focus on the whole year. Q1 is slow anyway because of lunar new year. Did government anti-corruption movement go away in Q1? No. Actually, I feel it is even tougher based on my talks with family members and friends.
Internationally, the company has high hope for the US market, yet we do not have any new development on additional FDA approval beyond the old number of 7 products. And their expenses would not decrease due to the aggressive R&D expansion and sales expense. As sad as it is, R&D is often the killing part for those Chinese companies that aim high. It is much easier and more profitable to copycat.
I actually support America's complaint over China's IP violation. China needs to accelarate its legislation and protect IP. It is not only about Spider man III, it is for our good in the long run.
我来说两句周四周五大盘研判和nmx操作 (1) (by BOBOBOBO)
千户兄弟, 我来说两句周四周五大盘研判和nmx操作 (1)
首先， 当看到nmx达到124的目标后，第一个感觉是不用担心冒险失败给太太打屁股了
。周五开盘前我说过如果错了我就没了５０％total investment的. 第二件事情是把当
天开盘就进的n多may 120, 125, 130 out of money call全卖了。留下的都是June/
July的call. 赚了多少就不说了。 不是还没完吗？
为了周五的操作， 我分析了一个晚上， 白头发又多了很多。美国股市本身就是长期被
业绩／短期被news driving的。预测不全对又有什么？！ 不顺的时候记得mummy's
phase "长青树也有掉叶子的时候＂完善方法就是了。
我周四的时候post的东西肯定都还在，当nmx dip to 118.**时，我正在turnpike上呢
， 赶紧pull over, 用bb下单。 之前我就说过， nmx under 120是good buy, 抛开别
的不说，it 下周股东可以开卖了， just a little bit common sense, 你是股东的话
会卖个地板价吗？ nmx的交易席可是和持股数相关的。
周四时我看JWW的8g贼开心， 不停watering, 叫人查这查那的是有目的的。 我手头上
有收积的多次大跌的各种分西， 包括盘前／后交易，再回到我们以前的话题， 能
publish出来的ta, 是屠龙刀， 是mm杀小户的屠龙刀。 it 在９０％的时候有用，不过
在１０％的关头就可一让小户死鸡八蛋了。 n个牛trader/analyst谈过盘前／后交易对
个股的影响， 又有谁说过权重股盘前／后交易对大盘的影响？看书， 要看到书上没说
的东西－－－－大千捣乱说的。
首先， 当看到nmx达到124的目标后，第一个感觉是不用担心冒险失败给太太打屁股了
。周五开盘前我说过如果错了我就没了５０％total investment的. 第二件事情是把当
天开盘就进的n多may 120, 125, 130 out of money call全卖了。留下的都是June/
July的call. 赚了多少就不说了。 不是还没完吗？
为了周五的操作， 我分析了一个晚上， 白头发又多了很多。美国股市本身就是长期被
业绩／短期被news driving的。预测不全对又有什么？！ 不顺的时候记得mummy's
phase "长青树也有掉叶子的时候＂完善方法就是了。
我周四的时候post的东西肯定都还在，当nmx dip to 118.**时，我正在turnpike上呢
， 赶紧pull over, 用bb下单。 之前我就说过， nmx under 120是good buy, 抛开别
的不说，it 下周股东可以开卖了， just a little bit common sense, 你是股东的话
会卖个地板价吗？ nmx的交易席可是和持股数相关的。
周四时我看JWW的8g贼开心， 不停watering, 叫人查这查那的是有目的的。 我手头上
有收积的多次大跌的各种分西， 包括盘前／后交易，再回到我们以前的话题， 能
publish出来的ta, 是屠龙刀， 是mm杀小户的屠龙刀。 it 在９０％的时候有用，不过
在１０％的关头就可一让小户死鸡八蛋了。 n个牛trader/analyst谈过盘前／后交易对
个股的影响， 又有谁说过权重股盘前／后交易对大盘的影响？看书， 要看到书上没说
的东西－－－－大千捣乱说的。
Friday, May 11, 2007
I am facing a dillema on the market
I have never experienced such kind of situation before, and this turns out to be a challenge onto me right now on summarizing the market this week , especially what happen today. Let me think about that.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Patience is virtue
yes, I will feel quite happy if you have cashed at the beginning of this week after viewing the weakness of market with the " sell " signal. Now your patience will be paid off soon, be patient patient to load. Now let me introduce several notice you have to pay attention before loading:
1) the target you load
normally for a consolidation phase in a bullmarket, it will take approximate 3~4 weeks. and you have to have enough patience to wait for support point to load. Always try to load around support, otherwise, the risk will be higher. This requires you have good familiarity with the stock. Don't follow others pick, do your due diligence.
2) the way of loading
divide your cash into several group when loading. For example, if you wanna load 100 shares of apple around 100. First, when price approach close to 100, buy 50 shares. if appl lower another 2 points, then get into another 50 shares. Don't pull all the bullets at one time unless you are really sure this is the deal you can't miss. However, this turns out to be not true most of the time.
3) the assumption you have to make
is that the market is still bullish , which is mine.
I am waiting, cautiously watching those stocks in my watchlist. Once they get into my strong buy points, I will buy without any hesitation.
1) the target you load
normally for a consolidation phase in a bullmarket, it will take approximate 3~4 weeks. and you have to have enough patience to wait for support point to load. Always try to load around support, otherwise, the risk will be higher. This requires you have good familiarity with the stock. Don't follow others pick, do your due diligence.
2) the way of loading
divide your cash into several group when loading. For example, if you wanna load 100 shares of apple around 100. First, when price approach close to 100, buy 50 shares. if appl lower another 2 points, then get into another 50 shares. Don't pull all the bullets at one time unless you are really sure this is the deal you can't miss. However, this turns out to be not true most of the time.
3) the assumption you have to make
is that the market is still bullish , which is mine.
I am waiting, cautiously watching those stocks in my watchlist. Once they get into my strong buy points, I will buy without any hesitation.
MA is chased by hedge fund now
to reduce their risk. Still remain my buy rating on this stock.
They will chase more about those constant cash flow stock as the volatility rising.
AAPL, who got rumors about their mac tablets, boosts the view of their future strong growth for their innovation. We remain buy rating on this stocks too.
Sbux, MA, AAPL are all good for IRA account.
As we pointed out before(market review), the slightly " sell" reading shown on our market monitor warns us the weakness of market. This doesn't deserve worry, more to create chance for us to load when other feel panic. Remember, big institution need to sell some to lower their cost. But market is bull market, as long as we are patient enough. Go get the stock once it reaches to your buying point.
NYX is a case, downgraded by GS will slow down its recovery together with the market weakness. We have plenty of chance to load. Hold your cash and ready to fight back.
They will chase more about those constant cash flow stock as the volatility rising.
AAPL, who got rumors about their mac tablets, boosts the view of their future strong growth for their innovation. We remain buy rating on this stocks too.
Sbux, MA, AAPL are all good for IRA account.
As we pointed out before(market review), the slightly " sell" reading shown on our market monitor warns us the weakness of market. This doesn't deserve worry, more to create chance for us to load when other feel panic. Remember, big institution need to sell some to lower their cost. But market is bull market, as long as we are patient enough. Go get the stock once it reaches to your buying point.
NYX is a case, downgraded by GS will slow down its recovery together with the market weakness. We have plenty of chance to load. Hold your cash and ready to fight back.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Combining your TA knowledge with fudamental in trading
Normally even for an investor, we need to use the TA tool to find out the opportunity. As what I have mentioned in the previous article, when you speculate on a good fundamental stock, the chance for you to succeed will be much higher than those trading on non-sense penny jumpy stocks. DXPE, with its good expansion and acquisition, could well provide you the opportunity to catch the nice profit. And it is safe since this stock has been well studied by us. Otherwise It won't be put to the watchlist shown on the right handside. However because of its acquistion reason, I haven't been able to finish its value study which will come later on. But here may comes the chance for speculation. TA wise, it will have a nice breakout pretty soon.
BTW: today's market reaction to FED is a sign that further confirm our thinking in the middle to long term bull trend. Market is still in consolidation mode. Consolidation can be viewed in our previous article. However even bull market we still see some shakeout action. Once you see that opportunity, don't hesitate to get in. The market doesn't pull back too much is because institution knows once they sell, retailers like us will get benefit. But they also face the dillema to reduce their cost somehow. Therefore, as long as we are patient enough, will definately see chance to load.
Eyes for Investor, WFR
Pls check my post after its ER " pull back may not be good for trader but for investor". WFR is another typical case happen here. If you do your DD, can find that whether it worth $60 or not.
Normally why will a stock react drammatically after ER? Traders normally only check their those stocks who have been fully appreciated such as HMIN, WFR,etc. If many people are bullish toward them before that, the bigger proft they can make is to reverse the trend. Remember Trader normally don't care too much about fundamentals, just no time and no interest. Any pull back for good stock will give super opportunity to buy. AOB is another case. Last ER, dipping from $12 to $8.6. But according to my evaluation at that monment , buying between $8.2~9 is the strong buy. The fact is that AOB only stated below $9 for only one day. Now check its price just after 2 months, already giving 27% if you buy at that monment. 2 months , 27% , is it bad? WFR fell after ER ,but if you know its fudanmental well, opportunity lied there , not take more than 2 weeks to get another 11%.
No matter what, knowing a stock can help you gain confidence in trading most of the time.
But always remember, investing is investing, trading is trading. If you wanna trade, don't miss with investment. if you wanna invest, don't miss it with trading. :)
Normally why will a stock react drammatically after ER? Traders normally only check their those stocks who have been fully appreciated such as HMIN, WFR,etc. If many people are bullish toward them before that, the bigger proft they can make is to reverse the trend. Remember Trader normally don't care too much about fundamentals, just no time and no interest. Any pull back for good stock will give super opportunity to buy. AOB is another case. Last ER, dipping from $12 to $8.6. But according to my evaluation at that monment , buying between $8.2~9 is the strong buy. The fact is that AOB only stated below $9 for only one day. Now check its price just after 2 months, already giving 27% if you buy at that monment. 2 months , 27% , is it bad? WFR fell after ER ,but if you know its fudanmental well, opportunity lied there , not take more than 2 weeks to get another 11%.
No matter what, knowing a stock can help you gain confidence in trading most of the time.
But always remember, investing is investing, trading is trading. If you wanna trade, don't miss with investment. if you wanna invest, don't miss it with trading. :)
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Market consolidation with weakness
is normal and highly expected. Just relax and wait for chance.:) Pls check those stocks that we have mentioned before:
AOB WFR SBUX HSC
BTJ is weakening, waiting for opportunity.
NYX is standing around its 81 support.TA wise , it will swing back to around 89. However with all of its acquisition done with Euronext and 22% growth rate so far, its current PE 40 valuation may not be a good deal. Downgraded by GS will slow its recovery trend.
BTW: insider is buying NYX.
====================
Moreover I would like to keep housing idea alive
Now the housing market has been doomed, comparing to the price change in USG? Cooperating with those latest news? No. Clear mindset brings it into our monitor radar again for several reasons. The market have been filled with bad news. Investors have been reduced their speculation into this area. People are holding their money into new house. Hey come over here,don't you see the new boom tech area? New H1b Booming? Houses are always needed unless you wanna sleep on the street. Copper price has been raised a lot which in another way informing that house market will be bottom soon. What shall we focus? yeah, materials used to build house, wood, steel, copper and alumnia. all are turning if you focus enough into those area. It is almost the time to buy into this area.
AOB WFR SBUX HSC
BTJ is weakening, waiting for opportunity.
NYX is standing around its 81 support.TA wise , it will swing back to around 89. However with all of its acquisition done with Euronext and 22% growth rate so far, its current PE 40 valuation may not be a good deal. Downgraded by GS will slow its recovery trend.
BTW: insider is buying NYX.
====================
Moreover I would like to keep housing idea alive
Now the housing market has been doomed, comparing to the price change in USG? Cooperating with those latest news? No. Clear mindset brings it into our monitor radar again for several reasons. The market have been filled with bad news. Investors have been reduced their speculation into this area. People are holding their money into new house. Hey come over here,don't you see the new boom tech area? New H1b Booming? Houses are always needed unless you wanna sleep on the street. Copper price has been raised a lot which in another way informing that house market will be bottom soon. What shall we focus? yeah, materials used to build house, wood, steel, copper and alumnia. all are turning if you focus enough into those area. It is almost the time to buy into this area.
Monday, May 7, 2007
Investment or speculation, buying stock vs buying food(2)
标 题: 投资与投机，炒股与买菜(二)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon May 7 23:47:16 2007), 转信
前面两种做法，我犯了什么错误呢？
1）用投资的方法来投机
使用趋势图是技术分析的一种方法。技术分析是股市中不可缺少的一部分，也是投资技巧的重要组成部分。它本身即可以与基本分析结合起来，也可以单独使用。有几种方式，
1.1 技术分析单独使用
这是投机的最基本方式，不管股票是什么，垃圾也好，100000刀一股的也好。只要看到熟悉的pattern，我就上去trade. 这是最简单的trading方式。在进行这样的操作的时候，根本不要管股票基本面，设好stop loss立马杀进去。可想而知，这样的成功率会高吗？这页是program trading的问题。
1.2 技术分析与基本面好的股票结合
这是在投资的基础上进行的投机方式，通俗点说，也就是在基本面良好的股票上进行短线操作。这种操作方式已经是街上trader最常用的操作方式。也就是我们经常见到的IBD top100被炒来，档去的背后原因。基本面好的股票，再加上必要的消息，可以构成成功率较高的操作方式。
2) 用投机的方式来投资
就是找到了好股票，但是很想立刻就爆发。版面上一有老大推荐，不管三七二十一，干了再说。要知道，这是钱在流出去呢，买股票不是买菜。 即使我们周末去中国店买菜，也要看看这上海青菜如何，够绿吗？ 这个老干妈过期没有。这买股票不管别人推荐不推荐，自己都应该把他的背景好好的过滤一便。至少能够确定这次上涨行情的背后是什么原因，为什么别人推荐这个股票？ 最起码要看看这个驱动力是否能够给股票带来持续的行情。如果对一个股票的基本面了解，对股票的历史了解，你就能够比较清楚的知道，股票的上涨空间有多大，或者说股票的上涨阻力点在什么地方，支撑点在什么
地方。 在进入一个股票前，这5点问题你至少应该脑子里面过过一遍，
1) 我为什么认为他好
2) 他与同行业的公司有什么特别的增长点吗？
3）他的增长趋势如何，是否能够保持.
4) 他的价格是否被高估
5) 他的管理层值得信赖吗
不管你怎么过的，看别人的分析，看别人的报告，自己去研究也好。这上面5个问题没有回答过就立刻杀进去。 新手通常多半不仅是割肉，瘫痪是很正常的事情。哭天喊地，求爷爷爆奶奶，找老大要意见，别人找安慰都帮不了你。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon May 7 23:47:16 2007), 转信
前面两种做法，我犯了什么错误呢？
1）用投资的方法来投机
使用趋势图是技术分析的一种方法。技术分析是股市中不可缺少的一部分，也是投资技巧的重要组成部分。它本身即可以与基本分析结合起来，也可以单独使用。有几种方式，
1.1 技术分析单独使用
这是投机的最基本方式，不管股票是什么，垃圾也好，100000刀一股的也好。只要看到熟悉的pattern，我就上去trade. 这是最简单的trading方式。在进行这样的操作的时候，根本不要管股票基本面，设好stop loss立马杀进去。可想而知，这样的成功率会高吗？这页是program trading的问题。
1.2 技术分析与基本面好的股票结合
这是在投资的基础上进行的投机方式，通俗点说，也就是在基本面良好的股票上进行短线操作。这种操作方式已经是街上trader最常用的操作方式。也就是我们经常见到的IBD top100被炒来，档去的背后原因。基本面好的股票，再加上必要的消息，可以构成成功率较高的操作方式。
2) 用投机的方式来投资
就是找到了好股票，但是很想立刻就爆发。版面上一有老大推荐，不管三七二十一，干了再说。要知道，这是钱在流出去呢，买股票不是买菜。 即使我们周末去中国店买菜，也要看看这上海青菜如何，够绿吗？ 这个老干妈过期没有。这买股票不管别人推荐不推荐，自己都应该把他的背景好好的过滤一便。至少能够确定这次上涨行情的背后是什么原因，为什么别人推荐这个股票？ 最起码要看看这个驱动力是否能够给股票带来持续的行情。如果对一个股票的基本面了解，对股票的历史了解，你就能够比较清楚的知道，股票的上涨空间有多大，或者说股票的上涨阻力点在什么地方，支撑点在什么
地方。 在进入一个股票前，这5点问题你至少应该脑子里面过过一遍，
1) 我为什么认为他好
2) 他与同行业的公司有什么特别的增长点吗？
3）他的增长趋势如何，是否能够保持.
4) 他的价格是否被高估
5) 他的管理层值得信赖吗
不管你怎么过的，看别人的分析，看别人的报告，自己去研究也好。这上面5个问题没有回答过就立刻杀进去。 新手通常多半不仅是割肉，瘫痪是很正常的事情。哭天喊地，求爷爷爆奶奶，找老大要意见，别人找安慰都帮不了你。
Investment or speculation, buying stock vs buying food(-)
标 题: 投资与投机，炒股与买菜(-)
嗯，今天心情比较好，继续多写点自己的感受，刚刚也写了一部分，所以
把刚刚写的整合起来。：）
这两种操作是我初期犯过的最不可以原谅的错误，天生注定长久必然失败：
1） 用投资的思维来投机
就是看到一个股票，别人给了个pick，打开股票盘一看，哎哟妈呀，底部形态，昨天 涨了10%，从蜡烛图上看是bullish engulf,或者昨天是收十字星，底部了。再一看， P/E 70，有点高啊。还是先看看吧。 第二天一看又上去了7%，心里痛啊。
2) 用投机的思维来投资
板上老大给了个pick,打开盘一看，Wow,已经接近52 week新低，股票基本面不错。可以抢反弹了吧？ 还有大牛推荐，一定没问题。 结果冲了进去，股市开盘很好，涨了10%,心理想，这是个不错的股票吧？应该可以多拿久一点，让他涨。两个小时过后，股价回落，只有2%. "明天应该还会上涨吧?" 继续持有。第二天，开盘，股票跳跌5%。完了，这怎么回事啊？不是应该涨的吗？书上说3%割肉，等等吧。顺便跑到版面上发文，
<<请问老大，该怎么办?>> 割不割？ 第三天，股票怎么还不上去啊？ 收盘下跌1%,继续拿吧。过了5~6天，已经水下15%了，唉，继续hold吧。 一个月以后，水下20%,大盘猛涨，受不了了，我割了投别的股吧，于是割肉。再过两天，突然ER,股票飞涨25%,心里痛啊。
嗯，今天心情比较好，继续多写点自己的感受，刚刚也写了一部分，所以
把刚刚写的整合起来。：）
这两种操作是我初期犯过的最不可以原谅的错误，天生注定长久必然失败：
1） 用投资的思维来投机
就是看到一个股票，别人给了个pick，打开股票盘一看，哎哟妈呀，底部形态，昨天 涨了10%，从蜡烛图上看是bullish engulf,或者昨天是收十字星，底部了。再一看， P/E 70，有点高啊。还是先看看吧。 第二天一看又上去了7%，心里痛啊。
2) 用投机的思维来投资
板上老大给了个pick,打开盘一看，Wow,已经接近52 week新低，股票基本面不错。可以抢反弹了吧？ 还有大牛推荐，一定没问题。 结果冲了进去，股市开盘很好，涨了10%,心理想，这是个不错的股票吧？应该可以多拿久一点，让他涨。两个小时过后，股价回落，只有2%. "明天应该还会上涨吧?" 继续持有。第二天，开盘，股票跳跌5%。完了，这怎么回事啊？不是应该涨的吗？书上说3%割肉，等等吧。顺便跑到版面上发文，
<<请问老大，该怎么办?>> 割不割？ 第三天，股票怎么还不上去啊？ 收盘下跌1%,继续拿吧。过了5~6天，已经水下15%了，唉，继续hold吧。 一个月以后，水下20%,大盘猛涨，受不了了，我割了投别的股吧，于是割肉。再过两天，突然ER,股票飞涨25%,心里痛啊。
Good, AOB still in line with my expectaion
My expectation is that he keeps pace of 29% increase.
[Raise my strong buy point from 8.2~9 to
$9.5.
Remain its 12 months target $15.]
For your reference, 25% increase growth rate means double the price in 3 years.
if more than that, take less time.
and annual average return would be 33%.
I will read further into its filing later on.
=====================================================
American Oriental Bioengineering Reports First Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Monday May 7, 4:01 pm ET
- Revenues Increased 34.8% to $25.7 Million in 1Q07
- 1Q07 Net Income Increased 31.1% to $6.4 Million, or $0.10 per Diluted Share
- Company Provides Financial Outlook for 2Q07 & FY07
American Oriental Bioengineering, Inc. (NYSE: AOB - News), a leading manufacturer and distributor of plant-based pharmaceutical and nutraceutical products, today announced financial results for the first quarter of 2007.
ADVERTISEMENT
Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 increased 34.8% to $25.7 million from $19.1 million in the first quarter of 2006. This increase reflects $6.4 million in revenue from the Company's Jinji product portfolio, as well as year over year growth in the Company's core PBP and PBN products. Revenue from PBP products increased 52.4% to $18.6 million from $12.2 million in the prior year's first quarter, driven primarily by the Jinji products series, including the Company's newly launched Yi Mu Cao product for the relief of pre-menstrual symptoms, and by the Cease Enuresis Patch. Revenue from PBN products increased 3.7% to $7.2 million from $6.9 million from the first quarter of 2006, due to increased demand for the Company's soy peptide products.
Gross profit in the first quarter of 2007 increased 44.1% to $17.7 million from $12.3 million in the first quarter of 2006. Gross profit margin increased 440 basis points to a record 68.8% from 64.4% in the prior year's period. The increase in gross profit was a result of increased sales of PBP products, which carry higher margins and improved operating efficiencies across both business segments.
Operating expenses in the first quarter increased 65.8% to $9.8 million compared to $5.9 million in the prior year period. This increase was a result of additional expenses related to GLP that was not associated with the company in the prior year period, as well as increased marketing and advertising expenses related to the Company's efforts to increase market awareness of its brands and products. Operating income for the first quarter increased 24.0% to $7.9 million from $6.4 million in the first quarter of 2006. Operating profit as a percent of sales in the first quarter decreased 260 basis points to 30.8% compared to 33.4% in the prior year period.
Net Income for the first quarter of 2007 increased 31.1% to $6.4 million, or $0.10 per diluted share, compared to $4.9 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, in the prior year period.
Mr. Tony Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of American Oriental Bioengineering commented, "We are pleased to report another quarter of continued growth in our business. Our major plant-based pharmaceutical and nutraceutical categories contributed to our revenue growth in the first quarter with the biggest contribution coming from our over the counter (OTC) products. Our newly launched Jinji Yi Mu Cau product contributed to our results in the quarter and we are satisfied with the momentum of this product as we move into the second quarter. We continued to effectively manage our operating costs and sourcing efficiencies and were pleased to see stable pricing for our leading products, all of which resulted in record gross margin."
Fiscal 2007 Financial Update
For the second quarter of fiscal 2007, the Company anticipates revenue of approximately $33.0 million, a 45% increase compared to second quarter 2006 revenues of $22.8 million, with the majority of this revenue growth coming from products that serve the OTC market, primarily the Jinji product portfolio. The Company anticipates diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.14, based on a diluted share count of approximately 66.6 million shares outstanding.
For the 2007 fiscal year, the Company anticipates revenues to increase at least 32% from the prior year to at least $146.0 million. This guidance does not account for any potential acquisitions in 2007.
Mr. Liu concluded, "We continue to focus on opportunities that will further enhance the presence of our leading product brands and strengthen the total number of plant-based healthcare products in our portfolio. Consumer awareness of our brands continues to grow through our marketing efforts and the ongoing expansion of our diverse channels of distribution.
We also remain highly focused on the introduction of new products through the pursuit of complimentary acquisitions and additional product line extensions. We believe that these initiatives will better position our company for future growth and will further establish AOBO as a leading integrator and cultivator of plant-based traditional Chinese medicine products."
[Raise my strong buy point from 8.2~9 to
$9.5.
Remain its 12 months target $15.]
For your reference, 25% increase growth rate means double the price in 3 years.
if more than that, take less time.
and annual average return would be 33%.
I will read further into its filing later on.
=====================================================
American Oriental Bioengineering Reports First Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Monday May 7, 4:01 pm ET
- Revenues Increased 34.8% to $25.7 Million in 1Q07
- 1Q07 Net Income Increased 31.1% to $6.4 Million, or $0.10 per Diluted Share
- Company Provides Financial Outlook for 2Q07 & FY07
American Oriental Bioengineering, Inc. (NYSE: AOB - News), a leading manufacturer and distributor of plant-based pharmaceutical and nutraceutical products, today announced financial results for the first quarter of 2007.
ADVERTISEMENT
Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 increased 34.8% to $25.7 million from $19.1 million in the first quarter of 2006. This increase reflects $6.4 million in revenue from the Company's Jinji product portfolio, as well as year over year growth in the Company's core PBP and PBN products. Revenue from PBP products increased 52.4% to $18.6 million from $12.2 million in the prior year's first quarter, driven primarily by the Jinji products series, including the Company's newly launched Yi Mu Cao product for the relief of pre-menstrual symptoms, and by the Cease Enuresis Patch. Revenue from PBN products increased 3.7% to $7.2 million from $6.9 million from the first quarter of 2006, due to increased demand for the Company's soy peptide products.
Gross profit in the first quarter of 2007 increased 44.1% to $17.7 million from $12.3 million in the first quarter of 2006. Gross profit margin increased 440 basis points to a record 68.8% from 64.4% in the prior year's period. The increase in gross profit was a result of increased sales of PBP products, which carry higher margins and improved operating efficiencies across both business segments.
Operating expenses in the first quarter increased 65.8% to $9.8 million compared to $5.9 million in the prior year period. This increase was a result of additional expenses related to GLP that was not associated with the company in the prior year period, as well as increased marketing and advertising expenses related to the Company's efforts to increase market awareness of its brands and products. Operating income for the first quarter increased 24.0% to $7.9 million from $6.4 million in the first quarter of 2006. Operating profit as a percent of sales in the first quarter decreased 260 basis points to 30.8% compared to 33.4% in the prior year period.
Net Income for the first quarter of 2007 increased 31.1% to $6.4 million, or $0.10 per diluted share, compared to $4.9 million, or $0.08 per diluted share, in the prior year period.
Mr. Tony Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of American Oriental Bioengineering commented, "We are pleased to report another quarter of continued growth in our business. Our major plant-based pharmaceutical and nutraceutical categories contributed to our revenue growth in the first quarter with the biggest contribution coming from our over the counter (OTC) products. Our newly launched Jinji Yi Mu Cau product contributed to our results in the quarter and we are satisfied with the momentum of this product as we move into the second quarter. We continued to effectively manage our operating costs and sourcing efficiencies and were pleased to see stable pricing for our leading products, all of which resulted in record gross margin."
Fiscal 2007 Financial Update
For the second quarter of fiscal 2007, the Company anticipates revenue of approximately $33.0 million, a 45% increase compared to second quarter 2006 revenues of $22.8 million, with the majority of this revenue growth coming from products that serve the OTC market, primarily the Jinji product portfolio. The Company anticipates diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.14, based on a diluted share count of approximately 66.6 million shares outstanding.
For the 2007 fiscal year, the Company anticipates revenues to increase at least 32% from the prior year to at least $146.0 million. This guidance does not account for any potential acquisitions in 2007.
Mr. Liu concluded, "We continue to focus on opportunities that will further enhance the presence of our leading product brands and strengthen the total number of plant-based healthcare products in our portfolio. Consumer awareness of our brands continues to grow through our marketing efforts and the ongoing expansion of our diverse channels of distribution.
We also remain highly focused on the introduction of new products through the pursuit of complimentary acquisitions and additional product line extensions. We believe that these initiatives will better position our company for future growth and will further establish AOBO as a leading integrator and cultivator of plant-based traditional Chinese medicine products."
Skew between NASDAQ and DOWS
continues to warn us the weakness of market. Remain vigilant, and holding cash in hand. We need to be patient at this point to wait for a shakeout action to happen.
I strongly believe patience is also virtue of fortune. Just hold on until you
see selling climax, that is the time we need to pull into trigger.
I strongly believe patience is also virtue of fortune. Just hold on until you
see selling climax, that is the time we need to pull into trigger.
Saturday, May 5, 2007
Digging into SBUX's Earning performance
咖啡的Earning是没有什么大问题的，如果有，那就不是- 3%了。他在扩张的同时也买回他家的股票，问题就是扩张的速度放慢拉，
换句话说，就是在资金没有更好的情况下，去回购股票是没有选择的最好的选择。
因为咖啡这个行业的特殊性，他的增长不可能，也不合实际的去和那些科技概念比。
而最近出来的消息，咖啡购买相当于去年同期4倍的咖啡，上次我转过的。 这是
一种扩张仍在继续的信号，和当年STP购买WFR 10年的wafer一样。
如果说他 有问题，问题就在于他的working capital在减少，而且cash flow 也因此
而减少。并且同期增加了481 m的债务用于回购股票以及投资。 这一点上从公司的
statement of cashflow看得很清楚。
Cost of sales including occupancy costs increased to 41.9 percent of total
net revenues for the 13 weeks ended April 1, 2007, compared to 40.3 percent
in the corresponding 13-week period of fiscal 2006. This increase was
primarily due to a shift in sales to higher cost products, increased
distribution costs due to the Company’s expanding store base and food
programs, and higher rent expense attributed to growth in higher priced real
estate markets.
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ii&q=SBUX
这个费用的增加是有限的，同比增加2%,考虑到扩张时期美元同期贬值在2%，也就相互
抵消拉。
同时咖啡能够继续在波兰，中国扩张，本身的收入就足以满足cash flow的增长，所以
我是一点也不担心的。就像是为什么在年初的时候，Morgan Stanley仍然大力买入
cocacola一样。 随着今年volaltility的不断增加，我们就会看到这种cash flow corp
和A rank big cap value corp就会成为基金
追捧用于降低风险的对象。这样的故事不用多久就会发生，让我们拭目以待。
说明的一点：该股票不适合trader,也就是说不适合想暴富的人，而适合value
investor.
换句话说，就是在资金没有更好的情况下，去回购股票是没有选择的最好的选择。
因为咖啡这个行业的特殊性，他的增长不可能，也不合实际的去和那些科技概念比。
而最近出来的消息，咖啡购买相当于去年同期4倍的咖啡，上次我转过的。 这是
一种扩张仍在继续的信号，和当年STP购买WFR 10年的wafer一样。
如果说他 有问题，问题就在于他的working capital在减少，而且cash flow 也因此
而减少。并且同期增加了481 m的债务用于回购股票以及投资。 这一点上从公司的
statement of cashflow看得很清楚。
Cost of sales including occupancy costs increased to 41.9 percent of total
net revenues for the 13 weeks ended April 1, 2007, compared to 40.3 percent
in the corresponding 13-week period of fiscal 2006. This increase was
primarily due to a shift in sales to higher cost products, increased
distribution costs due to the Company’s expanding store base and food
programs, and higher rent expense attributed to growth in higher priced real
estate markets.
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ii&q=SBUX
这个费用的增加是有限的，同比增加2%,考虑到扩张时期美元同期贬值在2%，也就相互
抵消拉。
同时咖啡能够继续在波兰，中国扩张，本身的收入就足以满足cash flow的增长，所以
我是一点也不担心的。就像是为什么在年初的时候，Morgan Stanley仍然大力买入
cocacola一样。 随着今年volaltility的不断增加，我们就会看到这种cash flow corp
和A rank big cap value corp就会成为基金
追捧用于降低风险的对象。这样的故事不用多久就会发生，让我们拭目以待。
说明的一点：该股票不适合trader,也就是说不适合想暴富的人，而适合value
investor.
Friday, May 4, 2007
Market Review for May 04
This week, both DOWS and NASDAQ reach their high with earning report story and buyout stories. DOWS closes above 13200 with light volume on Friday, signing a weakness of the pace going forward. Especially those traditional market leaders such as GOOG, AAPL didn't perform, lagging behing the bullish trend recently. In market sentiment, the reading slightly get into " sell " domain ,the first time after its pull back from the end of Feb. The reading has been used by us to monitor the market quite a while. Currently the slow stochastic reading still remain in overbought reading, together with money flow slowing down. All these signs warn us that market will need to get into a breathe era.
From the Economy side, today's job report data gave out a bad sign into the US job market. The easing of job creating is the lowest since 2002. This maybe good for the market in a short term but may not be good sign for long term market growth. Elsewhere, first-quarter productivity rose 1.7%, topping views. Unit labor costs, the report's inflation component, grew a smaller-than-expected 0.6%. The ISM services sector index climbed to a stronger-than-expected reading of 56.0 for the month.
Many people argue that current market performance has a big skew relative to the economy growth . We count such kind of apperance onto the reason of enough liquidty from the hedge fund. As reported, the JPM continues to support the hedge funds with their capital source, so does GS. With such kind of liquidity around, we won't be surprise to see market outpace the GDP growth in the US.
On Sector Views, Healthcare, Transportation and Energy sector continue to show their strength as leader sector of the market. The hike in gasoline and crude price should help those refinary and drill corporation as well. Several stocks outperform .e.g. AEIS, VLO, BTJ. This trend could continue as the demand raise starting from the hot driving season after May 15. Pls pay attention to the article we mentioned before about the hedging into oil sector. Transportation sector such as BNI, KUS all gain through this week. Heathcare sector aslo lead the market at the beginning of this week but flat at the second part.
On Stock view, PTR, ICE, RIO , those stocks related to oil and metal reverses from their recent downtrend , which I believe should deserve further focus. But with the possible easing in the market, we will recomend vigilant action taken.
Good luck next week!
From the Economy side, today's job report data gave out a bad sign into the US job market. The easing of job creating is the lowest since 2002. This maybe good for the market in a short term but may not be good sign for long term market growth. Elsewhere, first-quarter productivity rose 1.7%, topping views. Unit labor costs, the report's inflation component, grew a smaller-than-expected 0.6%. The ISM services sector index climbed to a stronger-than-expected reading of 56.0 for the month.
Many people argue that current market performance has a big skew relative to the economy growth . We count such kind of apperance onto the reason of enough liquidty from the hedge fund. As reported, the JPM continues to support the hedge funds with their capital source, so does GS. With such kind of liquidity around, we won't be surprise to see market outpace the GDP growth in the US.
On Sector Views, Healthcare, Transportation and Energy sector continue to show their strength as leader sector of the market. The hike in gasoline and crude price should help those refinary and drill corporation as well. Several stocks outperform .e.g. AEIS, VLO, BTJ. This trend could continue as the demand raise starting from the hot driving season after May 15. Pls pay attention to the article we mentioned before about the hedging into oil sector. Transportation sector such as BNI, KUS all gain through this week. Heathcare sector aslo lead the market at the beginning of this week but flat at the second part.
On Stock view, PTR, ICE, RIO , those stocks related to oil and metal reverses from their recent downtrend , which I believe should deserve further focus. But with the possible easing in the market, we will recomend vigilant action taken.
Good luck next week!
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Some comments on NYX, PTR
PTR breaks through its moving average, indicating a start of its bullish trend.
Similar to NYX. If you like swing trade, they are the right candidates .
for those who wanna buy on breakouts:
candidates are
JBHT RNWK TKLC KG IPS PWR UNM OMG ICE MTZ PNX MRVL FCX HNSN IFF
Similar to NYX. If you like swing trade, they are the right candidates .
for those who wanna buy on breakouts:
candidates are
JBHT RNWK TKLC KG IPS PWR UNM OMG ICE MTZ PNX MRVL FCX HNSN IFF
Why do I get into NVEC ( not just courage)
Today, after selling @35.1, my gain from this little guy is about 29% in 3 weeks. The reason I point out here is to introduce one of the most typical yet profitable trading pattern , NVEC's earning breakout. Earning, which has been quite a nervous time for many traders, will be the best time for patient investors who have been ready for the move.
First, why do I choose NVEC not others?
Playing earning breakout, based on my backtesting and history analysis, will create big profit for those stocks who have shown decent move previously and fall because of trading reason. Here pay attention to this, not the fundamental reason but trading reason. If fundamental is bad, for example, missed ER dramatically in its previous quarter,skip this stock. NVEC remains its pace for generating earning. Its earning growth rate is faster than 80% of stocks in that sector. the patent it filed on MRAM has yet to bring cash into their earning. With all the fudamental analysis done, I was quite sure that it is a good company deserved to play with.
Trading sound company reduces the risk of your trading. Think about that, a penny has the reason to be penny,because of no big instituion buying. If no big guys buying, all the spikes will be just spikes.
Second, when do I buy it?
I bought it twice, first was around $26.9, second time was $27.3. you can easily spot that both of prices have been located into the consolidation zoom , region below the black resistance and above the uptrend support line. The higher low underneaths signs that big money is bullish toward this guy, as a result, any down move of nvec will be regarded as shaking and consolidation. The breakout is there, ready to go.
Third, why choose ER?
Most of you have known, there is pre-ER move and post- ER move. ER is one of the most frequent points to break the resistence in stock history. Why? Think about that. Buying comes from institution and smart money. Buying into ER, normally happened in BH or AH, can enhance their buying power efficiency without too much distraction. NVEC is ready to break, this will be the right time to go.
For all of those reasons above, getting into NVEC above the uptrend support line. The possibility you make money can be a big fish if not a shark. Trading is about the possibility of making money. And what we need to do is to try to reduce the risk exposed.
Eyes on stocks that are ready to breakout before ER, it is your time!
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Review of Head & shoulder pattern
HMIN demonstrated its head on shoulder patterns not long ago, which let me associate the cast published by IBD today. And I think it is quite a useful pattern that we wanna remember . So share it here for study purpose. Copyright belongs to IBD.
======================
From November through early March, airlines were one of the best-performing industry groups. It was also during that time, that Continental Airlines, (CAL) an industry leader, was forming a topping pattern.
Like many other airline stocks, Continental shares rallied for much of the autumn. The stock started stalling in December, when shares dipped near their 10-week moving average (point 1). All that seemed normal, especially when Continental jumped from the 10-week line to new highs. But on the week of Jan. 19, the stock reversed lower on heavy volume (point 2). The next week, it sold off further on even heavier trading, dropping below the 10-week average. Shares tried rallying back, but met against renewed selling. That rally attempt turned out to be the second shoulder in a head-and-shoulders pattern. That formation is one of the few shown by research to be a bearish pattern. A sell signal occurs when the stock pierces a trend line drawn across the lows (point 3), known to chart readers as the “neckline.” Continental has continued weakening. Its Accumulation/Distribution Rating is down to a D-, and its Relative Strength line is also trending down (point 4).
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
not bear market but just a consolidation
Consolidation means during such a period, we will witness high volatility of market, which will normally shake off the weak hands, newbie for example. And as we remains in the strong bullish trend of market, buying into dip is the best strategy that have been proved to be efficient in such kind of atmosphere.
Don't worry about the market, we are in a bullish mode. Remember, we can't just see 100+ everyday, right? Once the market goes to new high, profit taking is a natural action that we don't need to worry about. As long as the inflation is kept, and house market is stable, nothing could stop market going up.
Don't worry about the market, we are in a bullish mode. Remember, we can't just see 100+ everyday, right? Once the market goes to new high, profit taking is a natural action that we don't need to worry about. As long as the inflation is kept, and house market is stable, nothing could stop market going up.
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