Recession is here, no doubt

If you’re the charting type, Friday’s hike in unemployment confirms a likely bottom at the end of 2006. The trend suggests higher unemployment rates to come:

The unemployment rate has now risen 0.6% in less then 12 months. Historically speaking, any rise of more than 0.5% in less than 12 months also indicates a recession:

Here I made a statement under the assumption that the Labor Department is releasing accurate numbers… during an election year.

“The jobs report was heavily manipulated to keep the payroll number positive,” says government stats watchdog John Williams at shadowstats.com.

“Politically, it is extremely important for the Bush administration to keep the monthly jobs changes on the plus side, because a down month or two could provide the timing base needed for the National Bureau of Economic Research to call a recession, and such is not wanted in an election year. As with the month before, the reported monthly payroll gain was statistically indistinguishable from a monthly contraction.

“Keep in mind that beyond the standard gimmicks, the Bureau of Labor Statistics simply can report any jobs number it desires. The current message from the reporting seems to be that the administration does not want to show a recession, but it would like Mr. Bernanke to ease further.”


And if last week was any indication, the stock market won’t be faring very well in 2008, either. Be careful of the coming ER season, it won't be any upside surprising.