Just now after viewing the weakness of Chinese stock market, I start to unload half of my holding, booking almost 50% of the profit that I build up in one and a half month, 50% gain of my total account. After reaching 3800 level in Shanghai Stock market, a hike about 45% in the overall market in about 2 months, it is about time for a shake out. Several key holdings in my portfolio have encountered strong resistance of further going up. This is an apparent signal that those funds are also unloading their shares. Without the institution's joining, it will be difficult to play with another run up. The chance for the market to go up for another month maybe 15% up, adding additional 400 points by the end of next month. However what could happen if the downside coming, will have similar range. Opportunity/ Risk = 1:1. Yes, again, I may miss the additional run, but not willing to be trapped into the over 400 points. To balance this risk, taking half of my profit is the best strategy I can think of currently without the assistance of any hedging tools.
海螺水泥
中国人寿连续出现大单，公司与券商股一样也是证券市场火爆的最大受益者，仅其投资的中信证券账面收益超过200亿。
7 comments:
today I out half 600690@15.25
out half 601628@39
Now will ask my parents to transfer money back to US account, I think the China construction bank offer such kind of service free :)
haha I don't know the reverse transfer.
by the way, I will keep my bullets there. Because I would anticipate another 40% gain at least for the whole market. :)
compare to US market, I will only see 15% gain.
my experience is to play with stocks you really know them well. out side of the environment, for me, it's hard to make correct decision.
6 years ago, when I first came here, I left an online trading account in china with around 60K rmb left there. lost market sense after stay in here for a while, being wiped out 20K, then asked my father transfer the rest of the money back to the bank.
I play oil stocks, because you know our company work for vlo, that's why when ppl said vlo was topped at 65, I still keep buying. we got big project from vlo recently after a good project presentation. if their business outlook isn't good enough, our company won't get those long term project for coming 3 years.
I am big fan of nmx and ice, because i read tons of background info about them. feel confidence with their business.
btw, if ice won't pick up from today's price after tested 100ma, I will be very surprised. I bot ice call today.
To me, i would like to invest in a stable, well established us stock market.
talking about tech stock, I only trust rimm and bidu, aapl is ok though. I like the bidu report wrote by swingbh, totally convinced. i am using rimm, like it and couldn't live without it. aapl, their management is very narrow minded, that is why i think it can be good one but won't be the popular one. in terms of wireless handheld market, rimm is unbeatable unless they do something really stupid.
when I studied the economy test book, it address the first successful market leader usually can keep 60 to 70 percent of the business. I still believe in that.
as i have mentioned before, keep good eye on nmx, ice, and vlo.
besides, our company's private sector (land develop business) pick up a little bit recently, however, I would say it's more than likely a rebound in the real-estate slow down/recession process. In jersey, the last recession was back in later 1980s, according to my boss, it's about the time for another one.
if china stock market up 50%, I can make 100% profit. if us market up 10%, I can make 100% profit. which side should I go for in long run? :)
take care brother!
my 2 cents about develop your blog.
1, establish a link in bbsmit, trader168, etc.
2, start to provide e-magazine/membership service. for instance 50 percent membership fee for 5% monthly grow guarantee, otherwise, refund the money. then you can purchase more info from the web to improve your pick and analysis. monthly grow guarantee and refund can be a good sell point for your service. 60 percent annually is nothing as long as the total investment is lower than 100k.
I did business before I came here. one time I told my current boss, I manage twice more ppl than him when i was in china. he is doing really small business but feel good with himself, that make me feel so funny. I may join a non profit organization once I learn enough from the vlo project. I can't and don't want to donate 10 million to xiwanggongcheng, too much responsibility there. My major responsibility is to take care of my family, then if I still have energy to waste, take care of my friends. :))
hi brother Bobobobo,
Your idea of investing into only known industry is wonderful. I will write some of my thinkings in another thread, once you got time, pls comment on that.
I am really glad to see you continue to grab money from call/put hehe. I like VLO , I like DXPE. If I know how to play option, would have bought DXPE's option instead of its shares.
Again, your comments about improving the blog will be considered. I am trying to improve its quality maybe with certain funding to add more information here. Thanks again for your advice, helping people is my point currently as a student. If I become a professional later on, maybe style will change.:)
hi Brother Bobobobo,
When you have time, would you be able to recommend a book about option and part of your thinking?
I will study after the start of summer session:)
I did miss a lot of chance recently.
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