Sorry for all folks here, I won't be able to publish the Market Review this week because I am going to take the CFA test next month. I haven't spent too much time on studying it until last week that I found out actually there are many things need to be tested in economics and quantitative methods other than the corporation finance and accounting ,later of which are familiar to me. And this post, I will try to help you to understand several successful trading mechanisms by Livermore and Nicolas Darva so that later on you can build your own trading systems. Both of their methods have been extensively studied these years. and several people in stock board are using their method for trading. My explanation here is trying to help you to understand what is the real essence behind their methods. Most of their methods are related to momentum trading either by news or events and pre-setup. Their methods are not new but associated with different risk levels and experience level.
And this post won't be kept for long so that you may not remember what they are and affect your own creativity to build your successful system.
46 comments:
Good Luck for your exam. That should be your #1 focus now.
大家都签名一起bless千户吧！
1st
bless and best wishes for your exam!
So moving, thanks all!:)
飞刀哥诞生
tomx要向skiii学习
skiii同学在昨天大盘下跌之际，有几个％的进帐， 正式进入make money when other ppl lost 的境界。 后生可畏， 可喜可贺。 叫声飞刀哥先。
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Sure. Do you find a hidden channel used by MM to communication with each
other?
Form example, I found many anormal volumn like 452, 252, 146 on 8:00, 8:01,
8:02, 8:30 for INTC and other volumns in other stock's prehour data.
In fact,
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What made me to confirm the belief is the data from INTC
2007-05-24
09:08 $ 22.67 1,977,785
09:08 $ 22.67 22,215
09:07 $ 22.67 1,977,785
09:07 $ 22.67 22,215
The huge, wierd volumn show me the confidence. The most important - it
repeated twice. Then I make sure such a volumn only means MM is getting out of the stock.
----------------------------
牛啊
bobobobo, 今天还是继续熊么？
还是出现了转机？
我今天不看盘，陪母亲
qianhu brother,
good luck!
bless Qianhu for CFA Level I,II,III!
to bobobobo brother,
=====
The huge, wierd volumn show me the confidence. The most important - it
repeated twice. Then I make sure such a volumn only means MM is getting out of the stock.
======
you share a big info with us hehe. and thanks.
Skiii is improving fast, huh?
to m31,
thanks:)
qianhu,
there are a lot more can be digged out from these signals.
a hint, why did I mention so many stocks? and always don't forget volume.
:)
HMIN破了30昨天，俺看了看图，没找到下一个support呢。bumpkin来说说
hehe thx dude.
See GOOG's green yesterday set a big rebounce today. But we still need to wait for the end of today to fully evaluate its usefulness.
:)
okey, go study la.
hi Carol,
I don't think your skillset and experience is good enough to catch the short term bottom now. You may wanna skip this instead of avg down. Maybe for your reference, current's price $29.5~$29.9 is the short term bottom confirmed by the double selling-climax pattern.
I am not conservative, I am not trying to hide my finding.
I just like the the phase 授人鱼，不如授人以渔
to bobobobo,
===
I am not conservative, I am not trying to hide my finding.
I just like the the phase 授人鱼，不如授人以渔
====
yes, we know that, hehe.
Thanks QQ, I was just thinking about a swing on HMIN. I will watch and stay away from it but learn at the same time. Thanks!
Bobo, you contribute a lot to this blog, we all know that! thanks!
Good luck Qianhu.
The market bounces back from a position slightly above the strong support which I think is around 2520. The volume yesterday is high, but not abnormal high. But today's bounce back does not mean too many things except that the strength of pullback won't be strong this time. It is last day before the long weekend. I expect no surprise today. Next week the market might wonder around this local bottom area to find its clear direction in the future. My suggetion is if you cut off yesterday, dont bother to rush in quickly. If you are still with your stock, hold. Make it quiet and wait for the signal.
Metronic: good luck on your exam!
bobobobo: Thanks for your comments. :)
Good luck, good luck, Metronic! Bless~
预祝千户顺利通过，对乐如果我想看一些经济方面的教材，或者选一个economy得二学位应该怎么做呀？
Yeah, bo, you are holding our hands to teach. I am grateful.
Thanks skii for sharing your observation. It is a good example.
It would be nice to see qianhu's post of established trading methods. I do not know much of these. I am trying to follow O'Neil's method myself. But please don't spend too much time because you really need to focus on your exam.
Qianhu, best wishes.
To bobobobo: "授人鱼，不如授人以渔", 很赞! 我是新手, 还没入门, 望多指教! :)
Wow, Thanks all so much!
close my laptop now so that I won't be distracted!:)
oh i am late, got stuck in some stupid meetings in the morning.
qianhu,
i know you are gone just want to wish you goodluck in the exam.
carol,
sorry i just saw your posts, i agree with qian hu and think 29.5 range is safe for short term but i don't suggest you swing on it, you will just involve more capital and get stuck longer if market doesn't come back bullish fast enough.
good luck and happy memorial day weekend for every one.
bumpkin
Thanks Bumpkin~~ I didn't get in, watching only. Nice weekend!
Thanks a lot to bobo and qianhu. I really really learnt a lot from you two.
Good luck to qianhu's exam.
All friends here have a good weekend~
nmx, I will get in before the end of the market.
bobobo, the chart of NMX looks very good. Another candidate you might think is NVEC. I am in now.
no watering in MITBBS anymore and missed the NMX at 122.Loaded some at 124.00
hi, bobo大哥
I got some NMX call@130 at $1.20, it close at $1.30. I don't understand your price prediction now. I'm studying hard to find out some hint.
happydayone,
I find that watering is bad for trading result - my bloody experience...
想了一个周末，决定做FA派了
nextweek :BIDU
In daily candlestick chart it is a bottom and uppertrned, however, from the weekly chart it might be a zenith.
Will seek put by next week.
carol JJ好 :)祝你long weekend愉快
反指乖，赞～～
以后给我那里也灌点水，hiahia
1， 这个方法得益于HQ和大千，及168上得来的一些启示。去年夏天的HQ是蛮有创造力的。我至今还记得他通过对goog以及几个leading stocks得研究，正确判断了大方向。而后发文感谢shadan，说他终于上水了。说句得罪的话，他后来的idea就没那么闪光过。
当时我在build我的regressing model, 受此启发， 通过cluster /classification/discrimination analysis, 把更多的大盘指标股找出来加入到model里。发现还很不错。
2， 我那时的model好是好，但是美股总的来说是短期driving by news, 长期driving by earning 的。如果我辛辛苦苦的分析完，第二天早上出了个什么news, 大盘摔个过百点，一样完蛋。书上一直就说很多分析师都非常注意盘前交易对个股的影响。大千和168上有几个不错的也很注意盘前交易。我就想能否我也把盘前交易数据放到我的model里面。在这个过程中我发现，大盘前成交量级可预示下跌有可预示上涨，如何区分开呢？结论是还是成交量。总成交量和部分时间段的成交量以及由此产生的关联对大盘方向的判断， 尤其是那种+ -〉=100点的日子特别有效。
这套盘前判断大盘方向得方法只是我众多方法之一。没什么好藏的。我的系统里，最值钱的是选股和价格预测，盘前方法只是confirm交易和预防下跌。分开几次帖出来，只是因为我一直抱有“授人鱼，不如授人以渔”的观念。我不希望一次过什么都说完，然后别人就照做。没有任何学习和思考的过程。我想robin在发了许多hcl的pick后，其实又有几人真正理解他的方法和他如何come up with hcl play idea 的思路呢？坦白说，这里大部分人都太在乎短期挣大钱而非理解一个事情的本质，然后找到最适合自己的方法。
我可以找到这个方法，很大程度上取决于我本来就扎实ta/stat功夫，所以在闪光点出现后， 我可以知道it得价值以及如何更好的利用。更重要的是我相信独立思考的重要性。
我的乐趣不是发帖，然后得到叫好声。我的真正乐趣是认识了一个事情的本质， 赚了钱，同时enjoy了独立思考的乐趣。
to skiii,
you can ask happydayone. looks like he/she has better ta than you.
and don't just ask question next time, tell me what's you anlaysis, what you think? I can help you better in that way.
bobo大哥,
Yeah, I asked happydayone questions and will. I have a lot to learn from he/she(@_@)
I'm reading some TA books to improve my level. I cannot give any valuable analysis right now :(
Just try to give a better question next time.
awesome post:)
skiii,
you are improving, so does everyone here through such kinda communication and discussion:) no one is perfect in understanding everything, right? Even the thing we know may not work in the market.
To who care:)
I feel good about my preparation now, and need to focus focus focus:)
The test will be held on Jun 2. After that I will be back with all of you again.
Hi, Qianhu,
Thanks for you kind reply. I also noticed bobo deleted one sentence on mitbbs, hehe.
Here comes my question to all. If you're sure with 90% confidence a stock will rise/decline today. How to use your money to get the highest reward/risk ratio?
Good luck to Qianhu~
Look forwarding to your back.
Good luck Qinquan!
Bless Qianhu again!
Best luck for your exam
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