Wednesday, May 23, 2007

The most important thing in Investment

Fundamental Analysis? No. Technical Analysis? No. That what is it? Let's see what those real successful guys tell us.

李:有人总结您能够十八年都不会从股市失败的一个重要原因,是您有一个像隐士一样平静的心态,确实如此吗?
  杨:对,我经常对我的学生讲,炒股是六分心态、三分技巧、一分运气。
  李:您的这个心态也是股市把您摔打出来的吗?
  杨:摔打出来的。还有一个是我比较看得穿。
  李:看得穿什么?
  杨:钱是身外之物,你千万不要为富而来,为富而来的结果往往是贫。我和失败的人的区别就在于我期望值不高,是以一个下岗职工的心态在买股票。
  李:为了养家糊口而买股票和为了一夜暴富买股票,心态的不同会带来什么样的结果?
  杨:想暴富的一定是急功近利,为了养家糊口,他就把股票放着。你心态好了以后,可以用一句老话,叫宁静致远,比如这个行情涨两年了,谁越傻越放得住的,越赚大钱,这个放得住要什么?要心态 。
### Translation
Lee : Some people you can sum up 18 years from the stock market are not a failure of the important reasons, you have a hermit in the same calm mentality, and this is true?
Yang : Yes, I often say to my students, speculation is six hours mentality, one-third of skills, a breakdown of luck.
Li : Your mind is the stock market out your competent?
Yang : The temper. There is a comparison I see wear.
Lee : What to see what to wear?
Yang : worldly possessions money, you should never come to the rich, the rich from the poor results often. I failed and the difference is that my expectations are not high, based on an attitude of laid-off workers in buying stocks.
Lee : To feed their families and to buy the shares and who became rich buying stocks, the different mentality about what might be the outcome?
Yang : Through the will to be rich, in order to feed their families, he has kept the stock. You have a good mentality, one can use the old adage, called quiet Zhi Yuan, such as the Rising After two years, Who more silly attitude of the more up, the more money and to survive this up? To mentality.

===================
That is your mentality toward investment. We always talk about risk control, always talk about P/E, support, resistance. However those tricks are minor compared to attitude. In another word, you have to find your own way of investment. Many people at the beginning of trading always mix concepts of investment and speculation. However those successful people always find a way to suit themselves. For example, after you made a trade, do you frequently check the price of stocks? do you feel anxiety of your trading? If yes, you could be defined you are not suitable for a long term investors. All trigger yourself is the short term profit or lost. It would be better that you train yourself to be a short term or swing traders. This may not be true, just use as an example. No matter what strategy fit you most, find the one you need.

The way to find the right way that you feel comfortable may not be so easy. You have to try and error. One simple way you can do can be described like this,
1) forget about what others have told you, basically means once you find a stock, don't look at news about it, don't listen to others' opinion about it.
2) Try to understand the business of the stock in a simple way. How simple could it be? You don't need to look at its Financial statement, only judge by your own intuition whether this business will have future.
3) Find out what strategy fit you most, trader or investor. The best way that make you feel comfortable.
4) Design your plan, entry and exit.
5) Go for it.

6) If you lose, write down the reason, e.g. stop too tight? too loose? exit not reasonable?

7) If you success, count 1 onto the entry and exit strategy because it is a winning one.

8) Try several times until you find the right one. I would not rec you to use paper trade. Simple reason, it won't improve your mentality.

I have tried several tough ways until I finally find out that I am more suitable to be an investor involving into mid-term to long term trading through complete study of a company's business model.

最后以一句话佛经上的话总结,“找到了路,就不怕路有多远”.
( Finally, a word on the Buddhist concluded, "find the way and not afraid of how far the road." )
You will find your own way.

45 comments:

Unknown said...

Just as you said: "Patience is a virtue."

dangqiwu said...

Qianhu,
I can understand the cross breakout signal in the chart. Learnt much from you thanks. I also find such signals in many other picks charts. Just feel happy to see them.

bobobobo,
I just loaded some GROW, but you have stop out @_@ I'm so unlucky. But I'll hold it for a while to see the trend.
I'm reading a TA book to understand what you and Qianhu said.
BTW, do you think the MM will see Daoluan's post to make their decision? Daoluan sounds good but the market always goes another direction.

Metronic said...

To chanel,
find your own way, and you will get rich:)

to Skiii,
TA is just a tool, and read the book but don't memorize them.:)

tomx said...

现在潮流兴佛教了?

m31 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
m31 said...

qianhu,

As a newbie, I will keep reminding myself the value of being patient and not greedy. I picked AOB by myself based on its FA, and I was so glad to see it on your list. I hope it will grow over time.

Metronic said...

hehe,
buddism is a chinese tradition.:)

Carol said...

看了这个贴,2点体会。1,俺心态不对,想做investor,但是太过看重一时得失。想做speculator,但是又没有一套方法。
“为富而来的结果往往是贫",this really ring a bell for me. I have to re-evaluate why am I here and what do I expect.
从现在开始,严肃认真的对待每一次交易,克服浮躁的心态,设好stop和exit, enjoy my trading from now on!

thanks! This blog worths paying $$$ to read~

bobobobo said...

warning

check goog, gs, rimm, aapl, intc dell, vlo, nyx, etc pre market trade.

I will close all of my position except for nmx once market open.

bobobobo said...

ok, just check with the economy news, check with the pre market trade at 8:01/8:02, mm knows news ahead of us.

hold cash or short

bobobobo said...

yesterday's dow k chart was tipical 3 只乌鸦站枝头. don't lost your underware in this correction.

take care

m31 said...

To Bobobobo,

Thank you for the reminder. My fund is just in place and I was ready to buy AOB, but now I will wait to enter my position.

bobobobo said...

out all of my position except for a stop limit for nmx call

bobobobo said...

if I am wrong, I will be very happy.

that means market can continue the trend without a correction.

take care!

bobobobo said...

nmx has passed the most dangerous time.

relax now.

bobobobo said...

qianhu,

any comments?

tomx said...

trt在19上稳了,等ing大盘,嘻嘻。。

bobobobo said...

I miss predict the market. dow is super strong to carry other 2.

sorry guys. let me know what's your lost by following my word. I will give you my picks and directions.

Unknown said...

To bobobobo, you and Metronic are very very respectable. Don't say sorry. I sold mine. All I had is 30 shares. :b

bobobobo said...

well, I felt guilty when I am wrong.

I am waiting for a chance to re-enter.

if nmx can stand above 123.3, I will buy more nmx 130, 135 call.

Wei said...

Naz is at a critical point. Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think. So my suggestion is hold tight. Dont trade too much recently.

Wei said...

The market has been bull for a while. most index climb up a lot. under this circumstance, when the pullback comes, the market will send out very strong signal. 90% stocks drop huge in one day along with good news, huge volumn. By now, if the drops is triggered by bad news, dont panic. It is not there yet.

bobobobo said...

Wei said...
Naz is at a critical point.
-----------------------------agree
Several resistance upside and a lot of support downside. The market has been acting like this with huge fluctuation for a while. It may very like to keep doing this for a while. I dont expect to see any huge pullback at this level. 200 point might be the most and not likely. Huge pullback will come only after it breaks 2700 at least I think.
-------------------------I doubt it. what was driving the market in past few months? rate cut, good earning, buyout. what can continuously support the market? housing is bad, feb is more concern about inflation then recession, earning season is ended, we already have many buyout cases. the most important part, where is the money to continue support the uptrend?

bobobobo said...

btw, what is wei's id on mitbbs?

bobobobo said...

qianhu?

where are you hiding? today turns into a very interesting day.

Unknown said...

bobobobo, I think you are right. All red! I bought some Mpel and it went down again. Don't know what to do. :(

Wei said...

blueyuan :)

Unknown said...

qianhu,
are you watching HMIN? its close to $31 now, i am quite tempted to average down. what say?
--bumpkin

bobobobo said...

Wei said...
blueyuan :)

hey nice to meet you!

Wei said...

hehe, what's your ID on BBS ah?

happydayone said...

bobobobo and wei, could you please recommend some books to me?

happydayone said...

BTW, bobobo, did you see my comments on HERO? please instruct

bobobobo said...

Wei said...
hehe, what's your ID on BBS ah?

the same

I am bobobobo, used to be dt short expert. I am chicken out this morning as you see. very embarrassing.

Metronic said...

wow, I just wake up and see so many posts:)

Metronic said...

hi bumpkin,
I would say wait one or two days to see the big market first. Once the big market stable, buy into HMIN and sell later on.

Metronic said...

to bobobobo brother,
thanks for your reminding:)
Your premarket reading is cool, later on we can discuss about that.

Metronic said...

bobobobo brother,
bobobobo said...
===============
qianhu?

where are you hiding? today turns into a very interesting day.
==================
I just wake up, sorry about that. Recently need to study for the coming test in one week.

Unknown said...

多谢千户关于hmin的指点,刚起来,好睡呀,是在西海岸么?
bumpkin

Metronic said...

bumpkin,
hehe, I am in the middle west.

bobby said...

hi quadruaple bo, didn't you make a good call this morning saying the market is going down? Even if you are wrong, what to be embarrassed about? You have the courage to admit mistakes.

Qianhu is good at giving sound advice in investing philosophy. I especially benefit from hearing him saying "don't trade unless you feel comfortable". I am not good at TA and indeed do not feel comfortable doing day trades.
So I try to restrain myself from it. Life is not all about money, not at all. I don't have to force myself to be a daytrader HH, which I may never be able to. Being an investor can be fun and rewarding too.

Market is having a bumpy ride this year. Conflicting economic signals make the market volatile and react dramatically to anything. It is good for daytraders to benefit. For investors, good time to learn to be calm and patient and disciplined.

bobobobo said...

hey fanzhi
bobby said...
hi quadruaple bo,--------are you talking about me? call me bobo next time, for your convenience.

didn't you make a good call this morning saying the market is going down? Even if you are wrong, what to be embarrassed about? You have the courage to admit mistakes.

------------whenever ppl lose money by following my pick, I feel bad. I will give picks and directions to help them at least make their money back. I am just old traditional person

bobby said...

hehe, bo, you are really 义气 or traditional.

My first ever mitbbs mail came from you telling me a pick, saying that you would like to return me a favor because I replied your post about information about the OPAC meeting time. I felt funny but was impressed by your attitude. Salute to the traditional guy, an extinct species on earth. :)

m31 said...

bobobobo said...
------------whenever ppl lose money by following my pick, I feel bad. I will give picks and directions to help them at least make their money back. I am just old traditional person

That is so nice of you. I think people follow your picks also studied the picks and made the judgement call. But it is really gracious of you to take the responsibility. That is a true man.

bobobobo said...

bobby said...
hehe, bo, you are really 义气 or traditional.

My first ever mitbbs mail came from you telling me a pick, saying--------------------

ah ha, I remember now. that was in probably half year ago. so good to know that :))

Metronic said...

hehe, I think bobobobo brother is flattered now. Must feel really good after bobby's comments:)