Monday, May 21, 2007

One Addition to Market Review May 18

Market Sentiment index remains in slightly "sell " domain, and stochastic reading keeps higher than 70, a critical point. Even a pullback won't surprise us and instead creating opportunity for us to buy your favorite stocks.

Market has pulled up 1500 points from its latest bottom ,almost 10% in a month.

HMIN will release its ER after hour. In my opinion, it should rebounce here.
DXPE is forming a bullish peanut break out pattern, what we need is the volume to pick up. If this is a true peanut breakout pattern, target will be $56.

Bidu has been chased by mutual fund managers who wanna share the interest rate hike in Chinese currency, opening at $132 and soon shot up to $135.

Northgate is a Vancouver, Canada-based gold and copper miner that mines in the Americas. The stock has dropped 7.8% this year and trades for 8.5 times earnings and 1.8 times book value. Gurus sold it down from their 32nd biggest holding to outside of the top 100 holdings.

NYX regains their strengths right at the open. Target $85 today.

AAPL comes out strong after OE.


=============Pls Check below for DXPE ====================

Our previous post to review its bullish peanut breakout pattern

=========== Update on HMIN ===============================

no surprise, 12 month target remain $35, and I am going to sell them tomorrow morning. Its guidance for next qtr is above expectation, representating an 29% quarter over quarter growth. However since from technical standpoint, it is around the bottom and not many mms have the share to dump it. It should be safe from this standpoint.

People concerns about the occupancy of the hotel, 8x% sth compared to the same qtr last year. I would say this may not be a concern since their second qtr is above analyst expectation which signs that the rate number would come back in this 2nd qtr. We need to wait until the second qtr to really find out whether they have problem , which I doubt. However as what I say before, its valuation is kinda in the high end, pricing in the positive growth by this fiscal year. My position into is soly based on the TA speculation. Therefore I would maintain my hold recommendation in HMIN before any good news released next qtr.

50 comments:

bobobobo said...

still traveling

for nmx

the coming daily high will be 125.6, 128.8

vlo and grp are all good today. grp will have a buy chance in the mid day

take care.

Metronic said...

hehe, when would you come back?
maybe setting buy stop order?

bobobobo said...

I am traveling with my parents, they will back to China on this Sat.

you can try grp. 20 to 30 percent for call, and 2.5 to 3.5 percent if you can buy dip at 0.8 to 1% under open price just for dt.

Metronic said...

hehe, no option yet, dude. need to wait until my test.

bobobobo said...

qianhu,

btw, take a look at mgm and itg. I like them.

Metronic said...

hi dude, you wanna buy rebounce on MGM?
RSI(15) Below 40
Near Lower Bollinger(10)
Oversold Slow Stochastic(26)
Oversold Slow Stochastic(38)

Carol said...

完了,开始看不懂说啥了,555

bobby said...

csun is good, hehe.
I think qian square can restate its 18 target.

Metronic said...

hehe, Bobby,
CSUN 's price is based on its competitor's P/E. It may not be realized immediately.:)

Metronic said...

I got in HMIN on last thursday, speculating its ER now.
I wanna buy call but don't know how to buy. hehe

Metronic said...

hi Carol,

RSI(15) Below 40
Near Lower Bollinger(10)
Oversold Slow Stochastic(26)
Oversold Slow Stochastic(38)

There are bottom indicator which means the stock could rebounce here with high possibility.

bobby said...

IBD just featured solar industry in its industry spotlight column. Kind of interesting.
China stocks are so strong today. HMIN has a good chance to come back.
NYX is niu. hehe.

Metronic said...

bobby,
as long as we find the alternative for gas, solar will always be the focus. it is just a matter of time:) We just need to find the right stock at the right time:)

happydayone said...

Qianhu:

Thanks for your pick DXPE. I bought some last week.

My holding on NYX starts to turn from loss to gain. Happy ya

Carol said...

Thanks qq. Send an email to ur bbs mailbox. :-)

Carol said...

Add MGM into my watchlist. The current price was previously a gap. Saw the support at 65, but broken already. Am I looking at the right thing?

Carol said...

Qianhu, AOB's call increased by 100% just today up to now. I think you should definitely learn how to play option from BOBOBOBO. After you are DaNiu, then I can learn from you and TPP. :-)

Metronic said...

hehe carol,
AOB is a super strong fundamental pick, always safe to play. I do need to learn from bobobobo.

To Happydayone,
good to hear of your good news:)

bobobobo said...

anybody in grp when it dip down to 56.53

I said by in when price dip 0.8-1% down of open price.

will up to 58 at least.

nmx has a bad news today, it won't affect the uptrend, just hold it tight.

grow is good.

ice, my glass is on the floor. I predicted its midterm high should be 142.98, then will be in tunnel for a while. it breaks out today.

happy trading

Unknown said...

hi qianhu, your 12month target for hmin is $35 but you expect a rebounce from here meang?? it is already over $35, confused, thanks :)

bobobobo said...

carol,

qianhu is already very good at both fa/ta. all he need is to have more practice, then he can develop his own skill set.

you can be good by learning other ppls's stuff, and you will be great whenever you have your own skill sets. then you will have your own kingdom. that takes time.

it's good to be young like him and you. I would rather to be pool but in the age of 20s.that's why when I revisited Ithaca, I have so many thoughts.

Carol said...

BOBOBOBO, thanks for your comments. I know great people have great thoughts and when we look back on the journey of life, we can always find something valuable to remember even if it seems painful at the moment or something that we'd rather not have done even if it was cheerful at the moment.

I am newbie in stock, but it was a great feeling to meet nice people to give me some guidance. I am learning my lessons now, painful, but I will improve my techniques and attitude.

The destination could be fantastic, but I think the most important thing is to enjoy the process, every step, every growing pain we have to go through.

I think you have higher hopes and I believe it's never too late to chase new challenges in life, even if you are not in the 20's anymore.

Good luck and thanks again!

Metronic said...

hi b,
12 month target means from my FA valuation, it values about $35. But you know short term price could always overshoot what FA analyst thought it to be:)
If the value goes beyond this price, normally Analysts would come up with an upgrade. hehe
Even I got in Hmin last thursday for speculating its ER, if shot up right after, I would sell it right away without holding. I won't hold hmin for sure:)

Metronic said...

hi bobobobo brother,
you are still young hehe. Thanks for your comments and sharing.

Carol said...

HMIN ER tonight? hehe. watching

Unknown said...

qianhu, thanks for the comments on HMIN, i had some shares bot at 39.6 and I am debating when to get out to cut loss at a better rate. I was hoping to get out with the sentiment of ER. but i wonder if it would shoot up that much. i am a bit tight on capital so debating....
he he
---Bumpkin from MITBBS

Metronic said...

hi bumpkin,
I don't know whether it would shot up that high, but one way to reduce the cost would be sell some of your share at current price or a little bit higher. Then buy back and sell again, sth like swing trade to reduce cost. This is a typical Street way to do and the reason why we see consolidation:)

bobobobo said...

grp is already up to 58, it's your own choice now to sell it or keep it for a while.

making 20% is just like that easy in case you want to play oil stock option.

nas is leading the market for first time. rally is far from over.

happy trading

Carol said...

Who can say say WFR? deep in wather....

happydayone said...

Bobobo, could you please let me know what device and service are used for the remote trading?

Carol said...

Very sad day for me ah. BOBOBOBO, being poor stinks.....U don't want to go back to that stage :(

bobby said...

Carol, hehe, it is ok. We all have bad days now and then.

As for WFR, I think its foundamentals are still sound, as Qianhu pointed out several times. Just not the kind of day for solar today. This is fair considering the crazy run we have seen recently. I will be looking more into WFR and try to be patient and find a good entry point.
TSL's ER is not bad today. For me, this underscores the profitability of solar industry, which is a positive sign. Of course, TSL is the leader and may not represent others.

Carol said...

Sigh, it's really painful to see account dropping like a stone. One mistake is enough to kill~~Crying!

bobobobo said...

happydayone,

I am using a blackberry. you can think about iphone.

Carol said...

Qianhu, Admire you to death! MGM up $10 after hour.

bobobobo said...

Carol,

did you make your own decision when you bot wfr? if you made the decision on your judgement, you spend money to learn a good lesson. it really worth. think about once you have 1 million then make the same mistake, which one is worse?

if you just following other ppl recommandation. fine, when you lost, think about how much you have make from the good picks.

do set 2% and 20% stop limit for stock/option. don't tell me last time you set it to that limit but got shaken out. that only means you enter point is bad.

if you can learn from your lose, it really worth. you will have your money back and more.

bobby said...

How come? Look at your ont!
I think it is probably LVS. If you feel that painful, it might be the bottom right here. :)

Metronic said...

hi, carol
Don't feel frustrated , and just be patient. I can fully understand how bad it could be when seeing account dropping. You are just paying the tuition that you owed for your random trading. But after this period, I think everything should be fine then. Just cheers and learn from each other.

Metronic said...

LVS is into my waiting to buy list now, just be patient and I will update it. By the way, I don't trade the MGM. those bottom indicators just prove the possibility of the pick provided by bobobobo brother this early morning.

Unknown said...

hmin ER is out. rev 23.7m vs estimate 22.7m, earning 0.01 vs estimated 0.03, doesn't look good at all, :(
--bumpkin

Metronic said...

hehe, no surprise, I will sell tomorrow morning. Its price $35 is just fine, my speculation mission will finish tomorrow.:)
Don't worry, it is bottom here, even miss ER, no mms have enough shares to hurt it.

Unknown said...

Very nice blog! Btw, what is bobobobo's blog address?

Metronic said...

hi chanel,
welcome here. But I don't know whether bobobobo has a blog.
he also post his ideas here frequently. hehe

happydayone said...

A little bit good newd about NMX from yahoo finance board. We may see the prediction given by bobobobo.

NEW YORK (AP) -- The New York Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest energy market, on Monday said it expects electronic trading to drive revenue growth, amid shrinking volumes from its traditional open-outcry trading floor.

ADVERTISEMENT
Speaking at the Fox-Pitt Kelton conference on stock exchanges, Nymex Holdings Inc. President and Chief Executive James Newsome said electronic accounts on the CME Globex platform have surged 80 percent since October.

Electronic trading and clearing volume made up 45 percent of the first quarter total versus just 11 percent a year ago -- illustrating the rapid shift from the floor to the electronic medium. Volume in the open-outcry pits declined by more than half over the same period, to 30 percent from 67 percent of the total.

Newsome said Nymex had delivered on its promise to "recapture lost market share, particularly in electronic WTI (West Texas Intermediate crude oil) and metals."

Nymex -- which had lost market share last year to rival IntercontinentalExchange Inc. -- began to recoup its lead in October and now claims about 75 percent of the market for its benchmark WTI crude oil contract, according to Newsome.

Metronic said...

sounds good.:)

bobobobo said...

hi chanel,

I am lazy, besides qianhu is my friend. so that I can post some of my thoughts here.

this place has a very friendly atmosphere. ppl are equal and friendly. we are not just sharing trading but live experiences. I like it and wish you will feel the same.

welcome to join us.

happydayone said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

Thanks Metronic and bobobobo for your replies! :)

Carol said...

Thanks everyone for your wise advice. Bobobobo, I have to say that WFR is out of my own pick. I entered the market in early March and WFR is the stock I have a lot of respect for. I saw it going up and down each day, but the general trend is day-day up. I checked a few basic things about WFR, all looking nice. So, finally one day I decide to DT it just to try. Unfortunately it was its ER day. I had no experience of ER before, didn't know it can be a disaster like that. I used margin on my DT and hopeing to carry overnight. It dropped like a stone after 4:00PM, I didn't stand a chance from there. After the big loss of WFR, I was frustrated and made a few bad DT moves. Now I learned and decided to change my strategy and do more homework myself. It's just that seeing WFR dropping everyday make me a big upset. It is my first time 10% loss in my account which is huge to me, sigh~~
I don't have ONT, out at 1.61. I was usually timid and get out very quickly. The only stock I put my faith in, I was shocked by ER effects.
Thanks QQ and everybody, I know it's a lesson to be learned, although it is quite tough, but I will collect my guts and move forward.
Learning and building my level of patience everyday!

Metronic said...

carol,
just cheers. You will get the money back, we are still in super bull market:)