yes, I will feel quite happy if you have cashed at the beginning of this week after viewing the weakness of market with the " sell " signal. Now your patience will be paid off soon, be patient patient to load. Now let me introduce several notice you have to pay attention before loading:
1) the target you load
normally for a consolidation phase in a bullmarket, it will take approximate 3~4 weeks. and you have to have enough patience to wait for support point to load. Always try to load around support, otherwise, the risk will be higher. This requires you have good familiarity with the stock. Don't follow others pick, do your due diligence.
2) the way of loading
divide your cash into several group when loading. For example, if you wanna load 100 shares of apple around 100. First, when price approach close to 100, buy 50 shares. if appl lower another 2 points, then get into another 50 shares. Don't pull all the bullets at one time unless you are really sure this is the deal you can't miss. However, this turns out to be not true most of the time.
3) the assumption you have to make
is that the market is still bullish , which is mine.
I am waiting, cautiously watching those stocks in my watchlist. Once they get into my strong buy points, I will buy without any hesitation.
30 comments:
Very well said. I've made plenty of mistakes so far, time to stop and watch. Should use more common sense than emotion.
Do you still hold NMX @139? Will you add more or buy options?
I think you mis-interpret his list. I think it means hold ur cash on NMX.
hehe, yes, mis-understand those lists . Those lists are 12 months target from now, which I expect they would hit that price by the end of the fiscal year. Hold means currently I don't think it is a good time to buy because of the risk/reward issue.
The rating of buy , means you can buy it at current price and hold for around 6 months to 12 months. and the rewards for buying at current price will be around 30%.
8g8g
I like that girl, not really pretty but she is gifed. nothing could make me feel more happy other than reading this 8g post.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/PhotoGear/20350453.html
really? what is the title?
it is an empty link. hehe
oh, you mean weiwei?
that is a lovely girl, hen you qi zhi.
try this one
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Dreamer/20358724.html
hehe, the second line works:)
I am interested how you get 40$ for TXN?
Bull side:
TXN is no.1 in 3G application processor market and some part of consumer electronics market.
3G is taking off this year, it looks good for TXN ahead. (we can see that both QCOM/TXN rised their future earing)
Bear side:
But on the other side, TXN is losing market to NXP/QCOM (they have integrated chip instead of Baseband+Application Processor).
New comers like MRVL/BRCM/NVDA is entering application processor market which drives the price further down.
Could you say something about QCOM?
Thanks!
I am a fan of you :)
hehe, getting those number is not easy to do. I went through the traditional ways of calculating the incomes and their profit margin in this fiscal year to get that number. But here you can use another simple way which is the P/E multiple times their earning expectation . Further more, you have to consider one issue that TXN raises their annual guidance more than 10%, a signal for more upside. QCOM is their competitor in term of communication chip business. but the problem with qcom is that they can't really manufacture their chip and lower their cost through TXN's investment. TXN recently build a huge 65 and 45nm fab in TX, leaving higher margin compared to QCOM. I have removed the MRVL from my watch list because of their management issues until I see signs of improvement.
QCOM mainly serves in telecom industry, which can benefit from the stable growth of telecom business in the US. Telecom sector is believed to be the best defensive sector by many mutual fund managers yet QCOM, the supplier for communication chip, also got parts of cake this year.
Thanks for your support:)
maybe I need to explain more a little bit about the DCF valuation metric.
for example, if the company growth rate is 100%, and margin is 50%. suppose this company makes $1 in revenue last year, therefore the second year its revenue will be $2. and with a margin 50%, it will be $1. this is the profit. And you have to calculate its WACC , weighted average of working capital, let's say 10%. this normally vary for different company. that you can get the discount cash profit about $0.9. this is the profit. you can divide this to their diluted shares outstanding, say 1 share total. get the EPS is about $0.9. If their strategic P/E, ( not current P/E )i s $10. you know it worths $9 by the end of this fiscal year.
Hope it clarify a little. As you can see, you have to make several assumption in such a process, growth rate, margin, tax rate, WACC, strategic P/E.
WACC: weighted average cost of capital, you can wiki this concept.
Thank you for clarifying it for me. So do you have some suggestions how we choose the entry point? Under the current markets, should we at least wait till 10-15%off current price?
Corporate finance一学期的内容，你几句话就讲完了。呵呵。
市场真要萎靡一阵了，大家去8g，都不去看股票了。
hi C,
choosing the entry point is an art, normally choose around support points. The support can be moving average support, could be mid term support. It vary from stocks by stocks.
To know more about the support and resistance, pls go through the
tutorial at
www.stockcharts.com
hi Bobby,
hehe, corporation finance is basics, no doubt about that,otherwise I won't be able to understand how a corp is working. Because I don't wanna be a trader but an investor. are you in finance major? :)
check this link
http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/11/news/companies/bristol.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007051107
bristol is one of my research targets in phamar/biotech buy out study.
consider the buy out war between cme/bot/ice. nmx will be benefited whatever who will win eventually. It will be the next buy out target for either cme/ice.
today is critical for me. I have prepared to lost 50% of my investment or become a ?
I am not holding any ice at this moment. still feel interesting to see if it will reach 142.98 before coming er.
ya, I will study that. and also NMX deserves a buy:)
mr break out today
I was really week hand on this one.
yes, need to watch it closely.
hehe, not finance major. Just took some core MBA classes when I was going around graduate school. 糊弄你了 :))
Sigh, I want to be an investor too. But it is hard to do foundamental analysis, and even harder to believe in your analysis and stick to it. CHU was the first stock I analyzed and came up with a target price of 16. Bought it at 13.xx. Then experienced the Feb 27 crash and cut loss at 12.xx. And I have not done any analysis using all the numbers since then. Maybe I should spend less time on MITBBS :(, more time on 10ks.
CHU now is about $15 , which quite a pity. Setting stop is a difficult task for FA, so does for setting buying point. Normally I would buy at support line to reduce the risk. :) MITBBS has steadly become a place for quick hand, seems not many people are trading at FA now. I will still stick to this path.
hehe
It seems BTJ wanna take off its current trading zoom.
thanks for your explaintion of TXN target value!
I have some comment regarding fab model of TXN:
"TXN recently build a huge 65 and 45nm fab in TX, leaving higher margin compared to QCOM."
I believe TXN build these fabs are not for cutting cost. In fact, use TSMC instead of its own fab will cost much much less.
I think the reason TXN wants to use its own fab is faster tape out time because of easier IP change between fab and designer.
But starting from 45nm , TXN will stop using its own fab and switch to TSMC, following other fabless design companies. Since now with closer co-operation between fabless and TSMC, the tape out time is much shorter than before.
There are some rumer that TXN is seeking buyers for its fab. :)
really? hehe, seems insider info ah. nice, I will check into that.
anyone called the NMX?
hehe, this combined with ICE is really a nice option play. Bobobob dude did a good job here ah. hehe
haobo,
if you got more info about TXN, I would be really happy to hear that. The fab they have will really speed up the tape out time. and I checked that the reason they wanna build another fab is to reduce the cost with 65 nm tech. I would really suspect if this is not true otherwise why should they invest billions into this fab.
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