Predict the intraday market trend based on BH trading (by BOBOBOBO)

1， 这个方法得益于HQ和大千，及168上得来的一些启示。去年夏天的HQ是蛮有创造力的。我至今还记得他通过对goog以及几个leading stocks得研究，正确判断了大方向。而后发文感谢shadan，说他终于上水了。

当时我在build我的regressing model, 受此启发， 通过cluster /classification/discrimination analysis, 把更多的大盘指标股找出来加入到model里。发现还很不错。

2，我那时的model好是好，但是美股总的来说是短期driving by news, 长期driving by earning 的。如果我辛辛苦苦的分析完，第二天早上出了个什么news, 大盘摔个过百点，一样完蛋。书上一直就说很多分析师都非常注意盘前交易对个股的影响。大千和168上有几个不错的也很注意盘前交易。我就想能否我也把盘前交易数据放到我的model里面。在这个过程中我发现，大盘前成交量级可预示下跌有可预示上涨，如何区分开呢？结论是还是成交量。总成交量和部分时间段的成交量以及由此产生的关联对大盘方向的判断， 尤其是那种+ -〉=100点的日子特别有效。

这套盘前判断大盘方向得方法只是我众多方法之一。没什么好藏的。我的系统里，最值钱的是选股和价格预测，盘前方法只是confirm交易和预防下跌。分开几次帖出来，只是因为我一直抱有“授人鱼，不如授人以渔”的观念。我不希望一次过什么都说完，然后别人就照做。没有任何学习和思考的过程。我想robin在发了许多hcl的pick后，其实又有几人真正理解他的方法和他如何come up with hcl play idea 的思路呢？坦白说，这里大部分人都太在乎短期挣大钱而非理解一个事情的本质，然后找到最适合自己的方法。

我可以找到这个方法，很大程度上取决于我本来就扎实ta/stat功夫，所以在闪光点出现后， 我可以知道it得价值以及如何更好的利用。更重要的是我相信独立思考的重要性。

我的乐趣不是发帖，然后得到叫好声。我的真正乐趣是认识了一个事情的本质， 赚了钱，同时enjoy了独立思考的乐趣。

Translation as below

1, The methods benefit from HQ Daqian, and 168, due to some kind of enlightenment. Last summer HQ was quite creative. I still remember that he passed on goog and several leading stocks in the study, corrected judgment of a general market direction. Then he issued a document to thank shadan, he finally said he started to make money. At that time, I built my regressing model, inspired by this, through a cluster /classification/discrimination analysis, more large stock indicators identify them into model Lane. Found very good.
2, I was building the model, but the stock markets generally short driving by news, long driving by the earning. If my hard-earned analyzed, the next morning what if out of the news, and market had rapid drop-off point 100, the same jail. Book has been saying many analysts have paid great attention to the transaction on disc units affected. Daqian and 168 are also several very good attention to the disc transactions. I thought I could put disc transaction data from the model inside. In this process, I found, and the rapid turnover levels before fall may presage increases may indicate how to separate? Conclusion is still turnover. Total turnover of part-time and turnover, and the resulting correlation to the overall direction of the judge, In particular kind of point ->=100 + days particularly effective. This disc in the direction of the overall judgment method is only one of my many ways. No possession of the good. My system, the most valuable of-Selection and price forecasts disc methods only confirm transactions and the prevention of a decrease. Several separate points out, it is only because I have always been "delegated Mermaid, as a delegate to fish" concept. I do not want what one has finished, and then others will follow suit. No learning and thinking process. I think the robin in a lot of pick hcl, Several people in fact be truly appreciate his methods and how he will come up with the idea hcl play thinking? Frankly speaking, most people here are too short make big money lies not understand the essence of a thing, Then find the most suitable method. I find this approach depends to a great extent I was on solid ta/stat effort So the glittering there, I know it can have value and how to better use. More importantly, I believe the importance of independent thinking. I was not fun when posting, and then get applause. My real fun is a matter of understanding the nature, make some money and enjoy the fun of independent thinking.