Market sells off today after the big mouth greenspan's warning against chinese stock market bubble. This sparked a sell off in chinese stock market and many chinese stocks traded in U.S. What do we need to do in such a situation?
Based on my painful experience, several points you have to be clear about include but not limited to,
1) What is the reason behind the move?
If just because greenspan' word, we don't even need to think too much. He mentioned 2 months ago that there is 1/3 chance the us economy will get into recession. Normally Stock market points 3 ~6 months ahead of the economy, however what happen? DOWS hikes about 1500 points, do we see recession? Recently he sent out too much warning message which he was not supposed to do after resignation. I really suspect that he was helping someone on the street or behind the street to do sth.
another news about the pull back is the coming back of the house market which would reduce the chance of FED to cut rate as we expected before. However, no matter what, cutting rate is just a matter of time this year, any short term thinking will still be short term thinking.
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copied from Yahoo
Investors were originally enthusiastic after the Commerce Department reported sales of single-family homes rose 16.2 percent last month after falling slightly in March. Although the average prices of homes plunged, the report still showed the economy continues to show signs of expansion.
The report followed data released by the Commerce Department earlier Thursday that showed sales of big-ticket manufactured goods posted a modest increase in April, indicating a continued rebound in business spending. The durable goods report suggested U.S. companies are in the midst of growing, and aren't afraid to spend money to do so.
With first-quarter earnings reports mostly over, Wall Street is placing increased significance on data as a catalyst for stocks. The reports on Thursday suggest that perhaps the Federal Reserve has steered the economy toward a soft landing, and that a rate cut might not be needed.
"Sometimes good is bad," said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy for Israel A. Englander & Co. "This takes away the anticipation that the Fed is going to ease interest rates because of the housing market."
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you see what the people on street think? He said good is bad. hehe sound ridiculous ? no. All we are waiting for is the rate cut. A rate cut will be triggered when we see the house market tumble, when we see the economy slows down. You can see how conflicting of the psychology may affect the market.
2) was the move triggered by any fundamental reason of the company?
If the stock pull back because of the big market, nothing really happen to the Fundamental, don't be afraid. Just hold your holding. If it is because the fundamental reason like what we see in HMIN, a disappointing earning reason. We don't wanna hold loser for such kind of reason. But from short term trading perspectives, it might be a short term bottom.
3) What do we do with those original trading plan?
Today's sell off actually destroyed many of my trading plan including DXPE, OMCL, HSC . You can refer to the previous posts that I describe about their pattern. Under such kind of situation, I would have no choice but give up my previous plan. This doesn't mean I won't get in. Indeed, whenever I found a clear sign again, will get in right away. Holding fundamental sound companies can help to release your anxiety :)
As far as I know, the ISRG's breaking out pattern (traded by laoda yesterday)is also destroyed.
And it is a time to buy sth cheap. Don't wait too long, because once market comes back, will be strong and quick.
Just some of my ideas.
Also if you don't feel comfortable of holding good stocks, pls listen
No Sell Even Die
:)
23 comments:
And When you see GooG is green, you should know there is no problem with the market. That is a common sense:)
hehe, I just saw the green in GOOG on your watchlist while reading your blog. Thinking, wow, goog is green.
hehe, that is true, bobby:)
Resume my plan onto DXPE, OMCL, HSC.
Getting in.
qianhu,
What do you think of getting in on AOB now? Thanks
to m31,
AOB is a FA good company. Buying around $10 would be a good entry, buying around $9.6 would be a strong buy.
but normally I am too conservative, for example, I tried to wait until it touch $9 last time but failed. Carol got in around $9.7, even today could still sell for 10% profit. So you have to balance the risk and reward.
Thanks. I will try $10 but may not get any, although its trend is going down right now.
hehe, I am really amuzed by the short movie found on stock board:)
hold until double
《死了都不卖》是荣登中国网友下载第一名的炒股歌,己经有“2007年股歌”的美誉,只要谁听了都想买股票,32岁的上海人凯哥就是这首股歌的作者。现在不仅凯哥红了,他唱歌的妹妹也红了,网友四处打听,她的另一首成名曲、改编自大陆家喻户晓红遍大江南北的《香水有毒》,现在也变成了《股票有毒》。
创作者凯哥进出股海多年,最了解股民心声,从他创作的歌中可以听出他对股市的乐观。凯哥表示:“事实上,我一直在为股民写歌,这首《死了都不卖》可能是道出了广大散户的心声,才会如此受到关注吧。”凯哥真名叫龚凯杰,上海人,1975年出生的他,早在1997年就与股市结下了不解之缘。“我也是个小散户,当初投入17万,最多时亏损10万。直到2005年才抓回成本。”
在那段惨淡的日子里,喜欢音乐的龚凯杰创作了《炒股泪歌》、《股民已失眠》等歌曲,抒发着一名散户对“熊市”的无奈心情。而此后,他迷上了填词创作,并成为多家唱片公司的兼职合作音乐人。
虽然凭借《死了都不卖》迅速蹿红网络,但在接受采访时,身为总裁助理的龚凯杰仍将自己定位为职业炒股人和业余填词人。他坦言,写股民之歌不仅完全是出于自己对股市的研究和爱好,也希望能借此将自己的炒股心情与网友、听众共享。“这些股民之歌完全是非盈利性质的,有人喜欢,随时都可以在线听。”
除了写歌,龚凯杰还经常在网络BBS论坛上发表自己对后市的看法。“目前我是满仓,但市场风险在加大。希望广大股民能够理性炒股。”
I have different thought about nmx. I will get in if it can stay above/around 123.
will talk to you later
bobobobo, can you explain what did you see this morning in the pre-market? thank you! I am still happy with nmx's chart right now, also amzn. :) what you guys think?
I am thinking who can come to Chicago gathering. Qianhu, will you come?
造了势了, 没人来,汤叉是个黑MM,我被套了。要不要再耐心些呢?
qianhu,
i don't like greenspan but i do trust him. chinese stocks are due for a correction. the p/e is really getting too lofty for lots of stocks. However the chiense govt might sink some of their 10trillion reserve into preserving the chinese market. at any rate, i am hoping you are right since i myself am holding MPEL and HMIN.
--bumpkin
Out for the whole day, will hold until it reach 0,kaka
to tomx
bobobobo said...
warning
check goog, gs, rimm, aapl, intc dell, vlo, nyx, etc pre market trade.
I will close all of my position except for nmx once market open.
May 24, 2007 5:46 AM
bobobobo said...
ok, just check with the economy news, check with the pre market trade at 8:01/8:02 (goog, gs, rimm, aapl, intc dell, vlo, nyx, etc ), mm knows news ahead of us.
hold cash or short
May 24, 2007 5:49 AM
bobobobo said...
yesterday's dow k chart was typical 3 只乌鸦站枝头. don't lose your underwear in this correction.
I should have run my regression model, then I would make up my mind to short/put ice. However, I was bull shiting with a pastor at that time.
I would suggest you to print out the pre market trade records of above stocks, check them every day before the market open.
I total disagree what ppl said that pre/after market trade isn't really important. In certain time period, pre/after market trade only has very limited noise, which can help you read mm's mind. especially like today.
take care and congs to the marriage.
any further discussion, lets talk after my parents leave.
to happydayone
I will give you the name of the book, qianhu might be a better person to ask. I learned ta back in early 1990s, most of them printed in chinese.
and the comments of hero analysis.
hi bobby?
what do you mean the Chicago Gathering?
on stock board?
to bumpkin,
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qianhu,
i don't like greenspan but i do trust him. chinese stocks are due for a correction.
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yes, could be another time correction. But I would think still not top.
bobobobo brother,
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to happydayone
I will give you the name of the book, qianhu might be a better person to ask.
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you are too modest la.
To learn the stock, in term of Fa, one book is not enough. After reading many books, I would say a new book finding the next starbux is one of the best books in terms of investment I would like to recommend. For TA, there are many books. "Technical analysis of financial market>> is a good one. Recently I am reading one which I feel quite interesting is "How I made $2m".
As Google is the indication of the big market, the previous 3 days google chart can tell us something?
It was up in the first half day and down a lot in the last 3 hours. I shorted Goog several times at that moment. Now thinking it again, it may tell us something about today's correction. Anyone can help to explain?
Today, Goog is up AH, which is nearly always true for these days. Any indication for tomorrow's market?
yes. yesterday's GOOG fall on high volume should have told us sth about today's market. More weak sign is that the divergence of Index with their MACD line. The short term index said tomorrow morning will have a low open then pull back into green. We will see. :)
both of index dipped below their 20 days moving average. A 3~5% will be the extend for second correction wave typically.
bobobobo, I monitor those stocks in BH/AH as well, but what I see just green/red with around 100 to 300k vol in the pre-market. does it really count as a indicator for the whole market in the following hours? will MM really take actions during BH/AH? if they do, why only couple hundred K? else, why this vol can guide the multi-million vol in the day? maybe I ask too much. hehe..
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