Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Trading on the Bull Flag


OMCL, just finished its flag pattern and start to run out of gate. The target according to the theory will be $28. I will elaborate this patter later on today.
==== Background of Flag Pattern ====

Bull Flag - Bull Flag Pattern

The bull flag pattern is found within an uptrend in a stock. This pattern is named for the resemblance of a flag on a pole. The bull flag is a continuation pattern which only slightly retraces the advance preceding it. The technical buy point is when price penetrates the upper trend line of the flag area, ideally on volume expansion.

Context: Found within an uptrend.

Appearance: The advance has solid volume and the upward price action is strong, which forms the vertical look of a flagpole. The resting period and slight retracement is narrow price action with a slight downward tilt or is horizontal (but no upward movement) with volume contracting during the flag portion of the pattern. The flag portion of the pattern has highs and lows which can be connected by small trend lines which are parallel, giving the flag portion the look of a small channel.

Breakout Expectation: The height of the flagpole may be added to the breakout area at the end of the flag to determine the expected advance. This is why the bull flag pattern is often found in the middle of stock advances.

==============
OMCL also release beautiful ER and guidance last quarter.Almost most of the stocks I will discuss here have sounding Earning. Trading on good FA stock enhances the chance of your success.


DXPE continues its journey to form the peanut breakout pattern.
Target is $56.

I don't know is there anybody pay attention to the TRT I added a couple days ago.
I tried to get in around $18 but it never touch and come back strong.
This guy has an huge 200% accerlated earning last quarter and is at the begining of its big rally run. It is a good candidate to double within 3 months. Pls also pay attention to this guy.


Market is triggered a sell-off on late afternoon.
However, excitement over the latest round of merger-and-acquisition activity waned after a media report that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan expressed concern about a sharp decline in the Chinese stock market -- which has recently been hitting record highs. Wall Street's mood was also dampened when energy prices failed to ease despite a rebound in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories last week.

Remember, any pull back is healthy, and any pull back will be a short time.

50 comments:

Unknown said...

This time I'm earlier than bobobobo and Carol. :) 另外, 赞bobobobo一下, 对新手很照顾!

Metronic said...

hehe, yes, bobobobo is nice.

tomx said...

trt啊trt,牛!

Metronic said...

TRT caught my attention after its ER. The no.1 ER acceleration in about 2000 companies.

bobobobo said...

吓我一跳,just 4.5%, shouldn't be that exciting.

my trgl up 5% yesterday and another 7.8% now. this is only the second I check with the stock price.

要有内涵, 同学

m31 said...

TRT shares rocketed 28% after the ER. I hope it can keep up with the momentum.

Metronic said...

hehe, dude, check TRT's trading history in the past 3 days.
And what is more important is its super ER, rank no.1 er in this ER season.

but TRGL is cool, will study your list after hour:)

cong!

Metronic said...

Hey bobobobo brother,
your NMX prediction is super!!!
hat off hehe.

m31 said...

Sorry for being naive here, I am a little concerned TRGL has negative cashflow and poor EPS growth. Is the recent rise driven by the news that they start first gas sales in Turkey? Did I misunderstand something? Thanks!

Metronic said...

hi m31,
TRGL is bobobobo's pick, and I haven't studied its fudamental yet. But I also tentatively agree that it maybe a news driven rally. but BOBOBOBO will answer your question I think.:)

m31 said...

thanks. and many thanks for posting the chart for OMCL. It visually clarified my understanding.

Carol said...

看得不知道说啥好了。。。。牛群~~

happydayone said...

bobobobo, first of all, thanks for the list.

I checked the operation side of HERO (I like the name). It seems to me they are slowly picking up the service rate of lifeboat from ~68%(first quater) to ~73% (last two months). But the rig service is slightly sliding in last two months compared to 1st quater. Two rigs was under repair for more than 1 months. Anybody can help me to understand which service is more lucrative? (Seems the correlation of the stock price with lifeboat is more strong)

Overall the business in international market is quite strong.

They got hammed in 2005 hurrican season so they had some financial problem in the beginning of 2006 but is getting better. Its business in 2007 looks quite comparable with that in late 2006.

Regarding to customer, 30% of their rig business is linked to Chevron. It looks to me they are getting away from Shipyard from 2005 to now. Qianhu, please comments on the financial background of their customers.

The operation margin is very high 46% with low PE.

So overall, the business looks good. And one potential big news ahead is that they will have one rig available to the marker after more than 1 years major refurbish.

Hopefully, my observation don't confuse anybody here.

happydayone said...

ai, DXPE, get out too early.

Wei said...

OMCL is good. Get in around 22.4 this morning right after the volume blows out. Dont really understand how you get the 28$ target. My TA is very bad :(. But based on its FA, it should have a decent run from here. After it breaks 25, I will place a 10% trailing stop market order to protect the profit though.

Metronic said...

hi happydayone,
========
Anybody can help me to understand which service is more lucrative? (Seems the correlation of the stock price with lifeboat is more strong)
========
if you find out that correlation of the stock price with lifeboat is more strong, that is why street think they are more profitable.:)

Metronic said...

blueyuan,
your TA is good , much better than me I think. hehe
I add some contents regarding the flag pattern in the post.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
tomx said...

trt is trying to test 19 again.
might be a good entry at that point, what you guys think?

happydayone said...

nobody do NVEC? it is crazy

Metronic said...

hi happydayone,

============
ai, DXPE, get out too early.
============
don't feel bad as long as you trade ur plan.

Because I believe the peanut breakout pattern , will hold to prove it right. :)

May 23, 2007 10:29 AM

Metronic said...

to Tomx,
yes, I think so, that is a good point.

to Happydayone,
NVEC is always under radar, but you know , we are running short of money, can shoot anyone in our list. After breakout, you can play it.:)

tomx said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tomx said...

trt mm好狠啊!ft! 千户,到你的要求了。

happydayone said...

trt mm好狠啊!ft! 千户,到你的要求了。

You qian tu!!!

Metronic said...

yes, thx, I am watching it too.
Just now we see one run of jumping water in many stocks.

happydayone said...

I only have NMX now (I don't why that I so dread of the old saying: sell on may and walk away).

Just add little trt for fun

Metronic said...

yes, when adding TRT, pls set a stop. Its volatility is super high as what you have seen.

tomx said...

忍不住了,paper trade load up trt for fun. hehe.

happydayone said...

Its volatility is super high as what you have seen.

Thanks, But I didn't set the stop limit. As matter of fact I plan to add more if it drops.

happydayone said...

my god, I felt so good that I took 2 hours off and come home to sell all the stock out. I hope I am wrong again.

Carol said...

u sold all your positions? I am in for TRT

happydayone said...

u sold all your positions? I am in for TRT.

Sorry, only TRT now. But Please don't hold it because of me. Consult Qianhu. My purpose to be in TRT is to monitor it. Nothing else.

Carol said...

Hehe, don't worry. I will load more if it drops more.

Metronic said...

NVEC is so strong huh?
even the sell off doesn't affect him.

Metronic said...

However, excitement over the latest round of merger-and-acquisition activity waned after a media report that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan expressed concern about a sharp decline in the Chinese stock market -- which has recently been hitting record highs. Wall Street's mood was also dampened when energy prices failed to ease despite a rebound in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories last week.

happydayone said...

as to nvec, it is my pain. I raised my limit order from last weeks' $30.8, $31.89,$33.33, to $33.42 as today, but MM never let me buy it because the limit is always $0.10 lower. Today I saw the crazy uptrend when I got home to sell my other stocks.It was so difficult to resist the temptation that I grabbed 100 share at 35.8 and sold it around 36.3. -----The end (A newbie's story on NVEC)

Ai, Life is always full of regrets just like river running to the east!!

Carol said...

Avg cost of TRT around 19.2 Looking forward to next week! Thanks Qianhu~~

Metronic said...

For reference of those who got in TRT today.

Although this company just start to show at its early stage, the volatility is extremely high , quite similar to what we have seen on NVEC before. If you already get in, need to think about your plan. Shall you hold or shall you swing?
Where to stop.
The stop normally after an ER gap is at the middle of gap -- close to 17.77. Because this is an ER acceleration corp, if I got in,( with small portion of my portfolio) will hold it through next ER. What could happen to ER jump company is that they have a high chance to be upgraded again. Just my opinion, pls do your due dilligence.

Metronic said...

happydayone,
hehe, I would say you need to build your system of trading. Think about why you get the money this time, even a small amount. Summarizing the experience you have, you will have a better chance to catch sth before its run.

Metronic said...

My HSC is under water now but still above my stop. I will give it chance to try try.

Unknown said...

千户帮着看一下NILE,今天进了一点 :(

bobobobo said...

今天收盘就两个帖

1, nmx 有货。为何? 因为it突破126.8后没有上试128.7. 同时又摔不下去。明天可能gap up. 如开盘后下试支撑, 我一定50%舱位上。

Metronic said...

hi fanzhi,
NILE is forming the similar pattern as OMCL today, and reach the middle gap support. I would say it has a big possibility to go up hehe.

Metronic said...

hey bobobobo brother,
I would think NMX in 2 to 3 weeks could reach $138. and what is your second post? hehe

bobobobo said...

2, my holding performance
mgm option sold.
itg -0.455%
nmx +0.319%
grow stop out after 2% dip from yesterday, will get in again.
trgl +4.31%
mxwl +0.497

watch list
gtn (-3.93), syx(+1.99), jrt(-0.111)
所有没卖的都可继续持有,除非大盘明天玩完。

to skiii,

non of my picks are for dt purpose. you can buy and hold. that is why I said you don't need to be rush to get in. even gtn has strong support.

bobobobo said...

Metronic said...
hey bobobobo brother,
I would think NMX in 2 to 3 weeks could reach $138.

2 to 3 weeks is too long, 只争朝夕。

撤了, 陪母亲去。

dangqiwu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Carol said...

Stop set, thanks again Qianhu!

Carol said...

Thanks Qianhu for your valuable insights.
Bobobobo, thanks for sharing, with you and your parents have fun! After so many years, I finally realize how much parents sacrificed for me and how valuable is to have them enjoy 天伦之乐 with their kids. I treasure every minute I can have with them these days! Nothing can buy happiness in life and that's what I am running after ultimately. Wish your parents have a great time here! I am sure they are enjoying it!